With Wimbledon now under a week away, Dan Weston examines the conditions and contenders for glory in the Men’s Singles event at SW19…
The allure of the All-England Club in all its strawberries and cream glory won’t be far away over the next few weeks. Firstly, Wimbledon qualifiers are taking place this week before the famous fortnight, with the main event starting next Monday. There will be plenty of high-quality tennis on display, and there are a number of talking points ahead of the draw which is scheduled for later on this week.
Wimbledon 2022 predictions: How will the conditions affect the betting?
Conditions at Wimbledon should be pretty quick. Over 81% of service games in the Men’s Singles event have been held by the server across the last three years, and the dry and hot conditions which have been present in the UK for most of the spring and summer so far should ensure that the courts will be on the pacy side this year. Expect a lot of tiebreaks, particularly in matches involving big servers, and some long matches with few break point chances for either player - which could lead to high variance scenarios.
Over 81% of service games in the Men’s Singles event have been held by the server across the last three years.
With high volume and recent grass court data difficult to come by for a lot of players, two things to look at when assessing the contenders should be medium-term grass data and more recent numbers for players in quicker conditions, for example filtering clay out of their 2022 data.
Wimbledon 2022 predictions: Djokovic and Nadal to dominate?
The market leader is Novak Djokovic at 1.833*, and all prices detailed in this preview come with the caveat that Djokovic must play the event in order for them to be relevant. The world number two will be the top seed at Wimbledon in the absence of Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev, and his grass-court numbers across the last few years are without dispute. Doubts come, however, with his lack of surface activity, as he has not been seen in competitive action since he lost to Rafael Nadal in the French Open quarter-finals.
Nadal, too, is yet to play on grass this season and has a historic distaste for the surface, last reaching the final here in 2011, over a decade ago. Given the Spaniard’s noted current injury issues, it would be brave to back him at his current price of 8.820*.
Wimbledon 2022 predictions: Who are the contenders?
Marginally ahead of Nadal in the Outright market is the Italian Matteo Berrettini, who is currently available at 7.020*. While Nadal and Djokovic have deigned not to participate in grass court warm-up events this season, Berrettini has done so with aplomb, winning in Stuttgart and at Queens Club in consecutive weeks, before enjoying a well-earned rest this week. Berrettini couldn’t have asked for a better comeback from his injury picked up in March and with his strong serve likely to derive assistance from the quick conditions at Wimbledon, he looks to be a major threat to the bigger names.
Kyrgios is a player who loves grass and has done well on it so far this year, and he also thrives on the big stage.
Other threats, the likes of Djokovic and Nadal could be Felix Auger-Aliassime, Marin Cilic, and Nick Kyrgios. All have picked up various wins on grass so far this year. In the case of Cilic, he looks in impressive form after surprisingly reaching the French Open semi-finals recently, and has long-term grass court pedigree to boot.
Kyrgios, who is priced at 18.720* currently, looks a real contender as well. A player who loves grass (and has done well on it so far this year) and who also thrives on the big stage, the Australian has a high ceiling here and with his lowly ranking, will be a player every seed will be keen to keep as far away from as possible. The draw will dictate plenty for Kyrgios at Wimbledon this year, but in theory, he could face the likes of Djokovic or Nadal in the first round, creating a big test for the elite duo.
Don't forget to also check out Dan’s preview of the Women's Singles tournament at this year’s Wimbledon.