World ranking of players is something that many bettors take into account, without necessarily understanding whether it is relevant or not to their betting. This article assesses whether there is an edge to be gained betting on Tennis favourites against higher ranked players.
Understanding tennis players ranking
A tennis player’s world ranking is a controversial subject. Calculated on a 52-week rolling basis, ranks tend to fluctuate significantly during the Tennis season.
A long-term injury - think Juan Martin Del Potro, Nicolas Almagro and Tommy Haas recently - will affect a player’s rank severely and may leave them unable to enter directly into tournaments without qualifying or receiving wild cards. Due to this, some observers feel that a 2-year (or 104 week) period would be fairer, and more representative of a player's actual ability.
Furthermore, world rankings tend to reflect the current predominant surface being played in the majority of tournaments, at that time of the season. For example, clay court experts are likely to be ranked higher, after the main clay season finishes, than they would prior to it. This means that rankings are often skewed and are not a true reflection of the all-surface abilities of players.
On this basis, the market may interpret player rankings incorrectly, with a player who has risen up the rankings recently due to several strong tournaments likely to be over-rated. So what does this mean for tennis bettors?
Are lower ranked favourites undervalued in the ATP?
An interesting angle would be to look at players who are favourites in the market, but are the lower ranked player. These players are perceived by the market to be the better player, but considered worse by the rankings by the ATP/WTA Tours. Logically, these players are likely to be under-rated despite being favourite, due to being the lower ranked player.
The following table assesses a sample of players on the ATP Tour throughout their career (main draw and qualifying matches) when they started the match as favourite, but as the lower ranked player.
A cross-section of players ranked from 1 to 100 were sampled, with two players around the midpoint of each ten ranking places included.
All prices used are Pinnacle’ closing prices, and only matches where at least one set was completed were included:
Player | Rank | Matches | Wins | Win % | P/L | ROI % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nishikori | 5 | 23 | 12 | 52.17 | -476 | -20.70 |
Murray | 6 | 13 | 8 | 61.54 | -28 | -2.15 |
Anderson | 15 | 27 | 18 | 66.67 | 354 | 13.11 |
Bautista-Agut | 16 | 30 | 19 | 63.33 | 252 | 8.40 |
Benneteau | 25 | 32 | 21 | 65.63 | 109 | 3.41 |
Mayer L | 26 | 45 | 33 | 73.33 | 945 | 21.00 |
Querrey | 35 | 52 | 30 | 57.69 | -181 | -3.48 |
Mannarino | 36 | 22 | 13 | 59.09 | -70 | -3.18 |
Sock | 45 | 33 | 17 | 51.52 | -333 | -10.09 |
Seppi | 46 | 12 | 9 | 75.00 | 326 | 27.17 |
Sousa | 55 | 11 | 7 | 63.64 | 149 | 13.55 |
Young | 56 | 39 | 27 | 69.23 | 757 | 19.41 |
Bellucci | 65 | 41 | 27 | 65.85 | 83 | 2.02 |
Tomic | 66 | 44 | 29 | 65.91 | 110 | 2.50 |
Jaziri | 75 | 12 | 8 | 66.67 | 190 | 15.83 |
Haas | 76 | 35 | 25 | 71.43 | 676 | 19.31 |
Berankis | 85 | 46 | 30 | 65.22 | 277 | 6.02 |
Dodig | 86 | 21 | 14 | 66.67 | 246 | 11.71 |
Kamke | 95 | 23 | 14 | 60.87 | -197 | -8.57 |
Gojowcyzk | 96 | 26 | 12 | 46.15 | -504 | -19.38 |
Overall | 587 | 373 | 63.54 | 2685 | 4.57 |
As can be seen from the table, a significant sample of data was generated with 587 matches sampled. 373 wins came from this sample (a win percentage of 63.54%) and when a £100 hypothetical stake was applied to all matches sampled, a profit of £2,685 was generated (return on investment of 4.57%).
This ROI is very strong for a blind backed sample of a significant size, and can be treated as a huge edge in the market.
Andreas Seppi, Leonardo Mayer and Tommy Haas all recorded win percentages over 70% from this scenario, with Haas particularly interesting, as he recovered his ranking following a long-term injury in 2012. The same issue will affect Haas in the future, as he has been absent from Tour through injury since May 2014. Donald Young, with a win percentage of 69.23% and ROI of 19.41%, was also historically very strong.
Just seven players of the 20 sampled recorded negative ROI figures, with Kei Nishikori, Peter Gojowczyk and Jack Sock recording the worst figures of over -10% ROI. Interestingly both top ten ATP players sampled (Andy Murray was the other player) had negative figures, illustrating that both currently have poor records against elite level opponents.
Are lower ranked favourites undervalued in the WTA?
Player | Rank | Matches | Wins | Win % | P/L | ROI % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ivanovic | 5 | 29 | 20 | 68.97 | 346 | 11.93 |
Radwanska A | 6 | 8 | 6 | 75.00 | 229 | 28.63 |
Jankovic | 15 | 12 | 7 | 58.33 | 18 | 1.50 |
Safarova | 16 | 26 | 18 | 69.23 | 403 | 15.50 |
Pavlyuchenkova | 25 | 16 | 10 | 62.50 | 118 | 7.38 |
Svitolina | 26 | 12 | 8 | 66.67 | 122 | 10.17 |
Keys | 35 | 29 | 22 | 75.86 | 637 | 21.97 |
Garcia | 36 | 13 | 8 | 61.54 | 10 | 0.77 |
Vinci | 45 | 15 | 10 | 66.67 | 297 | 19.80 |
Koukalova | 46 | 10 | 7 | 70.00 | 169 | 16.90 |
Beck | 55 | 21 | 11 | 52.38 | -337 | -16.05 |
Jovanovski | 56 | 11 | 6 | 54.55 | -152 | -13.82 |
Vesnina | 65 | 24 | 18 | 75.00 | 766 | 31.92 |
Shvedova | 66 | 41 | 26 | 63.41 | 234 | 5.71 |
Erakovic | 75 | 30 | 18 | 60.00 | -77 | -2.57 |
Rogers | 76 | 14 | 6 | 42.86 | -381 | -27.21 |
Vekic | 85 | 12 | 9 | 75.00 | 308 | 25.67 |
Parmentier | 86 | 22 | 11 | 50.00 | -275 | -12.50 |
Konjuh | 95 | 30 | 23 | 76.67 | 545 | 18.17 |
Gibbs | 96 | 20 | 14 | 70.00 | 385 | 19.25 |
Overall | 395 | 258 | 65.32 | 3365 | 8.52 |
Interestingly, the WTA figures were even stronger, with a return on investment of 8.52% from 395 matches, as well as a slightly higher 65.32% win rate. These statistics are truly stellar numbers for a blind-backed scenario.
Of the players with a large sample, Madison Keys, Elena Vesnina and Ana Konjuh had win percentages of 75% or over, and these look like players whose rank is likely to be, or has been below their level of ability.
Quite incredibly, only four WTA players of the 20 sampled recorded negative figures - Annika Beck, Bojana Jovanovski, Shelby Rogers and Pauline Parmentier.
Overall, combining the ATP and WTA figures, profits of £6050 were generated from a stake of £98,200, giving a return of investment of 6.16%. From such a huge sample, this profit level is likely to be statistically significant, and it would appear that the market has underestimated this scenario in the extreme.
Bettors would be very strongly advised to consider this in their future tennis analysis.
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