This week’s final round of grass court warm-up events on the ATP Tour are still being played, but given that the vast majority of top players have now concluded their preparation (this week’s events don’t feature any of the top players in the outright market), we can start to look at who the main contenders are for glory in Wimbledon during the coming fortnight. 

Before we look at the contenders, however, a glance at the data from Wimbledon from previous years is useful in order to assess potential conditions. 

Last season, 83.1% of service games were held at SW19, a figure very close to the 83.3% from 2017. At the time of writing, 80.3% of service games in the qualifiers have been held, and given that lower-level players tend to be more deficient on serve than return, it’s not a surprise at all to see that this is a slightly lower figure. 

Across the ATP Tour in the last three years, 83.7% of service games have been held on grass courts, so the conditions at Wimbledon look on the lower side of medium for grass courts. 

Having said this, though, it’s worth noting that grass is by some distance the quickest court type on the main tour, and even a medium-slow grass venue would rank among the quickest venues throughout the season. 

In short, this should mean that observers should see more aces, tiebreaks and tight sets on grass compared to other surfaces. For the top players, avoiding long sets and matches will be key on the men’s side, with accumulated fatigue from the best-of–five set format being inevitable, unless players get through the early rounds with minimal fuss. 

Over to the players - the table below illustrates the grass player data from the last 24 months, as well as the all-surface data from 2019 for market leaders in the tournament (data correct as of 26/6/19). An asterisk signifies small grass court sample size of data for that player during this time period: 

Grass court points won

Who will win Wimbledon 2019?

The outright market at Pinnacle has two players as solid favourites: Novak Djokovic at *2.31 and Roger Federer, slightly bigger, at *2.99. A little further back is Rafa Nadal, who is available at a current *5.31. 

Statistically, Djokovic and Federer being ahead of Nadal in the market (in that order) makes complete sense. Djokovic slightly edges Federer on combined grass points won percentage (114.4% to 113.9%) and both players are considerably ahead of Rafa Nadal, who stands at just over 4% below Federer. 

Given this, it would mean that Nadal is likely to be an underdog against any match-up against Federer or Djokovic, and there is an argument that his market status is influenced by his level across other surfaces, by clay in particular. His 2019 all-surface data is the best on tour, but there is very little relevance towards a player’s clay level at Wimbledon. 

These three, plus Andy Murray, have won every single Wimbledon since 2002, and therefore history is against the remaining players in the field. Statistically, or from a form and fitness perspective, the vast majority have much to prove. 

Second tier players to watch

Marin Cilic, priced at *20.76, has an excellent track record on grass but has had an extremely mediocre 2019, as evidenced by the numbers above. Injury has affected the Croat’s level and he’s got much to prove here. However, if he was to get back to his peak grass level, it is reasonable to consider him a major threat to the elite three. 

Cilic is joined by the likes of Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem, Milos Raonic, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Felix Auger-Aliassime as ‘second tier’ players in the market. Of the six, Auger-Aliassime, at *12.580, is the shortest priced, after a strong start to his career on the surface. 

Auger-Aliassime is 6-2 on grass this season - the first year he’s played on grass - with narrow losses to Matteo Berrettini and Feliciano Lopez, who have also impressed on the surface. His serve numbers have been stellar and far in excess of his all-surface data, although his return data isn’t particularly impressive. 

Of the remaining players in that second tier, Zverev hasn’t been playing well for a few months now, while Thiem has a poor grass court record and tends to do his best work in slower conditions. If fit, which is far from a given,  former runner-up Raonic looks a real contender based on grass data, and the Canadian’s serve will be very difficult to break in the upcoming fortnight. Finally, Tsitsipas’ numbers are more solid as opposed to spectacular, and he would need to exhibit a much higher level if he is to get to the latter stages. 

Long-shots to consider

Looking at some of the long-shots in the draw, the aforementioned Berrettini is yet to be priced up on the outright market - keep an eye out for him - while Daniil Medvedev, Grigor Dimitrov and, if fit, last year’s runner-up Kevin Anderson, could be the ones to watch. 

There’s little in the way of statistical evidence to suggest that players such as the inconsistent Nick Kyrgios, Stan Wawrinka, Denis Shapovalov and Karen Khachanov are going to have a massive impact at Wimbledon this year.

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