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Two weeks ago
Nov 6, 2018

ATP World Tour Finals 2018 betting preview

ATP Tour Finals odds

Do the favourites offer value?

Which outsiders have a chance?

ATP World Tour Finals 2018 betting preview

Credit: Getty Images

With the ATP Tour Finals starting on Sunday, this preview assesses the conditions in London and provides data and analysis on the players in each of the two groups as they vie for glory in the final major tennis tournament of 2018. Is there value in the ATP Tour Finals odds? Read on for some expert insight.

ATP Tour Finals betting: Build up to the tournament

After a shock win for Karen Khachanov in Paris, with the Russian prospect (a heavy underdog before the tournament) getting the better of Novak Djokovic in Sunday’s final, the field for the ATP World Tour Finals has been set.

Rafa Nadal’s withdrawal with various injury issues has opened the door for John Isner to come in as a late replacement into the top eight ranked players taking part in London during the coming week, with Nadal joining Juan Martin Del Potro on the injured list.

Last season’s triumph for Grigor Dimitrov, who beat David Goffin in three sets, marked the first time this decade that the tournament hadn’t been won by a member of the traditional elite four. Roger Federer, with two titles, Novak Djokovic (four) and Andy Murray were the other winners this decade.

In fact, non-elite finalists have also been rare. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, in 2011, and the aforementioned Goffin last season, are the only players outside that traditional elite quartet that have made the final.

It certainly seems worth noting that, historically, the cream has risen to the top, even at this late stage of the season when virtually every player has a variety of physical issues.

Across the last three years in London, 63.4% of service points have been won, slightly down from the 64.2% ATP indoor hard mean figures. However, 81.8% of service games have been held, marginally up from the 80.4% indoor average. Considering this data, conditions look likely to be similar to average for indoor hard venues.

As always, the players are split into two groups, and the relevant player data for each group is listed below:-

ATP Tour Finals Kuerten Group stats

Kuerten

12 Month vs Top 10 Record

12 Month Indoor Hard Matches

12 Month Indoor Hard Wins

12 Month Indoor Hard Win %

12 Month Indoor Hard Service Pts Won %

12 Month Indoor Hard Return Pts Won %

12 Month Indoor Hard Combined Pts Won %

3 Month All-Surface Service Pts Won %

3 Month All-Surface Return Pts Won %

3 Month All-Surface Combined Pts Won %

Djokovic

12-4

5

4

80.00

67.7

38.1

105.8

68.9

41.1

110

Zverev

7-9

16

9

56.25

61.3

38.4

99.7

66.6

41.5

108.1

Cilic

4-9

16

8

50.00

64.9

36.5

101.4

66.3

39.1

105.4

Isner

3-6

13

7

53.85

72.7

28.1

100.8

74.0

28.5

102.5

ATP Tour Finals Hewitt Group stats

Hewitt

12 Month vs Top 10 Record

12 Month Indoor Hard Matches

12 Month Indoor Hard Wins

12 Month Indoor Hard Win %

12 Month Indoor Hard Service Pts Won %

12 Month Indoor Hard Return Pts Won %

12 Month Indoor Hard Combined Pts Won %

3 Month All-Surface Service Pts Won %

3 Month All-Surface Return Pts Won %

3 Month All-Surface Combined Pts Won %

Federer

8-5

23

21

91.30

70.8

41.3

112.1

68.3

38.4

106.7

Anderson

6-5

16

12

75.00

71.1

33.3

104.4

70.3

32.6

102.9

Thiem

6-7

18

12

66.67

64.6

37.8

102.4

67.6

36.8

104.4

Nishikori

6-8

20

15

75.00

68.6

39.0

107.6

66.0

38.5

104.5

ATP Tour Finals Alternates stats

Alternates

12 Month vs Top 10 Record

12 Month Indoor Hard Matches

12 Month Indoor Hard Wins

12 Month Indoor Hard Win %

12 Month Indoor Hard Service Pts Won %

12 Month Indoor Hard Return Pts Won %

12 Month Indoor Hard Combined Pts Won %

3 Month All-Surface Service Pts Won %

3 Month All-Surface Return Pts Won %

3 Month All-Surface Combined Pts Won %

Khachanov

5-11

24

18

75.00

68.4

39.2

107.6

69.8

38.0

107.8

Coric

7-8

9

5

55.56

67.7

35.3

103.0

67.8

36.0

103.8

Analysing the contenders in the Kuerten Group

The Kuerten group is led by tournament favourite and returning World No. 1, Novak Djokovic, who is currently priced at 1.684*. Joining Djokovic in this group is Alexander Zverev, at 10.80*, Marin Cilic 16.40*, and John Isner, who is the tournament underdog at 37.00*.

It is quite conceivable that Nishikori could be a real threat to the two heavy tournament favourites, and he certainly has stronger performance statistics compared to the other outsiders.

Looking at the data, we can see that Djokovic is the form player on tour with a 110.0% combined service/return points won percentage across all surfaces in the last three months. Zverev, at 108.1%, is second-best of the players competing in London when using this metric, with Cilic a little further back and Isner bottom of the eight players. However, it’s worth noting that indoor data has the players much more evenly matched.

Djokovic, whose outing in Paris last week was his first main tour tournament indoors since this event almost two years ago in 2016, perhaps has a little more to prove currently indoor on hard court - as opposed to outdoors - although still retains an edge based on that data from the French capital last week, and impressive longer-term indoor data.

The other three contenders in this group all have poor records against top 10 opponents in the last 12 months, and their 12 month win percentages indoors are the lowest of all the players taking to the courts at the Tour Finals.

This is also borne out by the 12 month indoor combined service/return points won percentages for the trio, and while one will have to qualify - assuming Djokovic does - it would require a huge elevation of this level for any of them to have a decent chance of tournament success.

Will the winner emerge from the Hewitt Group?

Roger Federer, who is the second favourite for the event at 3.880* is the favourite to take the Hewitt Group, with the other three contenders priced up as tournament also-rans. Kei Nishikori (27.00*), Dominic Thiem and Kevin Anderson (both 33.00*) are not fancied at all by the market.

Based on the data in the table above, readers may draw the conclusion that there might be some interesting value spots in this group.

For a start, despite not being tournament favourite, Federer’s 21-2 record indoors in the last 12 months is the best in the tournament, as is his combined points won percentage of 112.1% on the surface in the same time period.

He does have marginally worse all-surface data than Djokovic and Zverev in the last three months, but these conditions are more to his liking.

Federer’s other three group rivals also have solid indoor records in the last year, with Kei Nishikori (107.6%) having very strong combined service/return points won data on the surface.

It is quite conceivable that the Japanese man could be a real threat to the two heavy tournament favourites, and he certainly has stronger performance statistics compared to the other two group outsiders.

Odds subject to change

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