At this stage of the season, only four players have accrued enough points to guarantee a place at the O2 – Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal. Unless the Spaniard makes a miracle recovery, however, it’s unlikely that he’ll be in action in London and therefore he’s been excluded from our research.
Form for ATP World Tour Finals Betting
Ranking Djokovic, Federer and Murray’s performances against other Top 8 players (based on rankings at the time they met) in 2012 shows a completely different result than either the current World Rankings or the Race to London Rankings.
Murray – who is third in both the Rankings and the Race to London – has the best form against Top 8 opposition of the three, winning 64.3% of his matches. Djokovic has managed to win 61.9% of his contests, while reigning World Tour Final Champion Federer has won 61.5% of the time.
Federer is the most dominant in victory, however, winning by an average of one set per match. Murray and Djokovic average 0.4 set advantages.
Game by Game for the ATP World Tour Finals
If you’re interested in game-by-game betting, it could be tempting to base your bets on the players’ match or set-win percentage. Surprisingly, however, despite having the lowest set average, Djokovic completes his matches with an average of 1.5 more games than his opposition, while Federer finishes 1.2 games above his rivals.
Murray, however, averages just 0.4 games more than his opponents, suggesting that although he wins the most matches, they are close-fought encounters. Throughout 2012, Murray may be winning against the Top 8, but his performances have been just enough to get through.
ATP World Tour Finals Betting – Form Guide
This all changes when we look at the Brit’s recent form, however. Over the last five games, Murray has dominated Top 8 opposition. The Brit has not lost in any of these recent encounters, averaging a two-set margin over his opposition and a huge 5.2 games.
Surprisingly, Federer has won 60% of his last five ties with an average margin of 1.4 sets but just 0.6 games. This suggests that the Swiss star is getting more effective at closing out sets, but by a smaller margin than earlier in the season.
Djokovic’s stats are the real shock – the leader of the Race to London has won just 40% of his last five matches, with an average margin of -0.2 sets and 0.2 games. This shows that the resilient Djokovic is still beating his opposition in a healthy number of games considering he has won just two of five matches.
We’ll keep this updated as the players go head-to-head before the competition, and as other players (such as David Federer) qualify for the competition.