Jul 2, 2018
Jul 2, 2018

2018 WTA Wimbledon betting preview

2018 WTA Wimbledon betting preview

Who are the main contenders?

2018 WTA Wimbledon betting preview

Credit: Getty Images

With the Women's singles event at Wimbledon looking as open as any Grand Slam in recent years, this preview discusses which players are best equipped for glory over the next two weeks.

WTA Wimbledon betting: The favourites 

The open feel of the Women's event at Wimbledon is aptly illustrated by the current market prices here at Pinnacle on the major contenders. There is no player priced below 5.00* (implied percentage chance of 20%) with Petra Kvitova the shortest priced contender currently at 5.07*. 

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The Czech left-hander is closely followed by Serena Williams, the former World NO.1, at 6.12* and 2017 champion Garbine Muguruza chalked up at 9.00*. 

In addition to these, six further players are available at sub 20.00* prices, and ten more shorter than 50.00*, making a total of 19 players priced below this mark. 

Kvitova looks to be a worthy favourite, her hold percentage of 82.7% is one of the best on tour

With such a large number of contenders for the title, wading through the list of players in the field is a somewhat time-consuming exercise for bettors, so this preview looks to highlight the main players likely to make the latter stages at SW19. 

Our initial focus should be on the players at the forefront of the market - the market leaders priced below 10.00*. 

Of these, Kvitova looks to be a worthy favourite, with a world-class combined grass court hold/break percentage of 127.3% on grass over the last 18 months. In these 13 matches, she’s only been defeated once, and her hold percentage of 82.7% is one of the best on tour. 

The younger Williams sister, Serena, generates market respect purely on the basis of her previous achievements. However, she’s played just one event since March - the French Open - where she gave a walkover to Maria Sharapova in the last 16. 

Given her fitness issues, and having played no warm-up events on grass, bettors may wish to evaluate the American’s level in the first couple of rounds of the event. 

As for Muguruza, the Spaniard frequently saves her peak levels for the highest profile events, and although this is the case, her grass court data isn’t in the Kvitova bracket. She was dumped out of the Birmingham Premier event by Barbora Strycova last week. 

Contenders to watch

Moving on towards those second-tier players priced between 10.00* and 20.00*, Angelique Kerber, Madison Keys and Maria Sharapova boast the best grass court statistics, and the former duo certainly should enjoy the quick conditions that grass court tennis brings. This will make them real contenders for the title.

Backers of Pliskova will need to consider her historical lack of Slam success

Sharapova’s level since her comeback to tour action has been pretty inconsistent in general. She’s certainly nowhere near her previous heights and she is another player who hasn’t played any grass court events in the run-up to Wimbledon. Equally she was destroyed last time out by Muguruza at the French Open. 

Karolina Pliskova should have the tools to succeed on grass. The Czech has a superb serve but she’s flattered to deceive in Grand Slams in general. Pliskova has reached just two semi-finals in her entire career. 

On grass, she has broken opponents marginally less than the WTA grass court mean, and this will be a contributory factor to her playing a number of tight matches. Backers of Pliskova will need to consider her historical lack of Slam success and whether she has the mentality to thrive on the big stage. 

Simona Halep and Sloane Stephens are also priced below 20.00* and are respected by the market due to their success on other surfaces. However, grass isn’t their best surface at all and, statistically, other contenders look more viable options at similar prices. 

Outsiders to consider 

In addition, a number of players at bigger prices stand out, given their historically strong grass data. Eastbourne champion Caroline Wozniacki will have her supporters at 21.00*, and her grass court data is certainly top ten level, while Johanna Konta (28.50*) will relish crowd support and the return to arguably her best surface following predictable bad performances on clay. 

Last year Konta was more favoured to win the title but her poor level on the dirt in recent months may have influenced her price here. Bettors will need to interpret whether her lack of success on another surface will have much impact on her performances on grass. 

Coco Vandeweghe, at 41.00*, has a superb historical record on grass and fits the bill as a big-server who will be very tough to break in quick conditions. The American should not be ruled out. 

Venus Williams will need to roll back the years to get to the latter stages. The veteran Williams sister hasn’t played many events this year but did make the final in 2017, and has performed well on grass throughout her career. 

Caroline Garcia and Julia Goerges also fit the big-serving dynamic likely to thrive in conditions but the former has surprisingly mediocre grass-court stats, and represents a gamble at 61.55*.

The German, Goerges, may surprise a few people at a current 86.00*. She has a superb record on quick surfaces. Ash Barty, at 31.00*, is another big threat, while Magdalena Rybarikova has the potential to do well if her retirement earlier in the week was merely a precaution.

Challengers with much to prove 

Some other high-profile players are rather fancied by the market but have much to prove on grass or regarding their current level. These include Elina Svitolina (who was pre-tournament favourite for the French Open) as well as Victoria Azarenka, Jelena Ostapenko and Daria Kasatkina.

The improving Japanese player, Naomi Osaka, also falls into this category. Her serve may prove to be a huge weapon on the surface but she’s just not put it all together as yet.

With such a wide-open event, an outsider getting to the latter stages, or even winning the title, cannot be entirely ruled out, and hopefully this preview has given bettors food for thought when looking to select a value choice. 

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