The second clash between the odds-on favourite, Hillary Clinton and the bombastic businessman whose nomination defied all odds, Donald Trump, is over and the question everyone is asking is; so who won?
The post-debate polls paint a mixed picture. For that reason, we analysed the odds’ movement of Pinnacle politics’ market to determine what our players think about the winner of the US Elections 2016. To make betting on the US elections even more interesting, Pinnacle has been offering a single price for Trump and all candidates other than Clinton to win in November.
The below charts shows how the fair implied probability for Clinton and Trump & all others moved since the beginning of the debates up to now, based on how our players’ betting moved the market.
Hillary Clinton’s implied probability on the uprise
Although Clinton has been the bookmaker’s favourite to win the 2016 US Elections since the beginning, her presidential campaign has been anything but smooth.
When Clinton won the nomination of the Democratic Party on July 26, Pinnacle’s odds favoured her to become the next US President at 1.417. Thousands of TV adds later, her odds shortened as low as 1.249 in mid-August before the lingering questions over the email scandal and a treatment for pneumonia dealt a blow both to her popularity and her chances to win.
Since the beginning of the debates, Clinton’s odds at Pinnacle consistently gained ground. Currently priced at 1.149* the Pinnacle bettors consider Clinton the clear favourite.
Trump: The Unpredictable
The populist appeal of Trump, who was once a Republican outsider, saw many ups and downs since his nomination. On the day of his nomination, Pinnacle bettors backed the bombastic businessman into the shortest odds he had seen in his campaign. Trump was backed at 2.910, translating into an almost 34% chance of winning, before falling back to 4.64 in mid-August.
During the first presidential debate, Trump’s attacks on Clinton for not having the necessary stamina and attempting to portray her as a political hack didn’t have the desired effect. The Republican candidate’s live odds drifted from 2.63 to 3.09.
Currently priced at 6.29*, the second debate might have lengthened his odds, but what it did achieve was a slight recovery in his overall level of support, particularly among Republicans, who were ever more reluctant towards the bombastic billionaire, following the release of a 2005 audiotape of Trump's sexually aggressive comments about touching and kissing women without their consent.
The final countdown
The million-dollar question, however, is how good are the online betting markets at predicting political events. During the Brexit referendum, online bookmakers had heavily favoured Britain remaining in the EU, only to be proven wrong.
If one thing is for sure though, it is that the debates have provided no clear indication as to who will win the Oval Office. It remains to be seen whether there will be a knock out punch by either Clinton or Trump during the last debate.
The two candidates will battle again on October 19, at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. After the final debate is over, there will be 19 days left until the election day, with the main focus expected to be on the key “swing states” (Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania) that are likely to decide the next US President.
Get the best US Politics odds at Pinnacle, the ultimate bookmaker with the highest limits and lowest margins.