Jun 24, 2021
Jun 24, 2021

A look at the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds

What is Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?

What’s the record for hot dogs eaten in 10 minutes?

Analysing Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds

Learn how to pick your wiener

A look at the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds

The largest event in the competitive eating calendar - Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest - returns to Coney Island on July 4. Can reigning champion Joey “Jaws” Chestnut defend his title? Or will a new winner break the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest record? Read on for an in-depth look at the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds.

Joey “Jaws” Chestnut broke his own record in 2020 by eating 75 hot dogs in 10 minutes as the contest took place behind closed doors in Williamsburg, Brooklyn. It means he has now won 13 out of the last 14 contests dating back to 2007. The only man to beat him in this period was Matt Stonie in 2015.

Believe it or not, while there are some people out there looking for value in the current European Championships, Copa America or Major League Baseball, others will be examining the odds ahead of the best-known hot dog eating contest.

Bettors can now bet on whether Joey “Jaws” Chestnut will claim his 14th Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest title and if he (or anyone else) can surpass his record of 75 hot dogs consumed.

What is Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest allegedly began in 1916 but has only seen regular contests since the 1970s and is now held every year on July 4. Considered to be the highlight of the competitive eating calendar, millions of viewers tune in to watch the competition. In addition to the acclaim that comes with devouring more hot dogs than anyone else, whoever consumes the most wins the $10,000 top prize.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting is obviously a bit of fun, but with some basic knowledge of how the competition works and a quick look at previous results, there could be some value on offer. Joey Chestnut is the clear favourite at 1.040* to win, with the odds for the men’s competition currently favouring Under 75.5 hot dogs at 1.523* (Over is priced at 2.300*).

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest format

The International Federation of Competitive Eating (IFOCE) states that the winner of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is the contestant that consumes and keeps down (this is an important if rather unpalatable thought) the most hot dogs and buns (HDB) in the allotted time (10 minutes). Drinks are permitted when eating, with water being a popular choice, as are condiments.

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A scorekeeper is assigned to each contestant to keep track of each hot dog consumed. Hot dogs that are not consumed in their entirety will count, provided a sufficient amount has been eaten. Hot dogs still in a contestant’s mouth when the time has elapsed will also count if they are then swallowed. Messy eating is punishable by a yellow penalty card and contestants can be disqualified if they regurgitate.

If the scores are tied after 10 minutes, it goes to a five hot dog eat-off to see who can eat them the quickest and if the contestants still cannot be split then it will go to a sudden-death single hot dog eat-off.

Eat-offs are a rarity though, having only occurred twice in the history of the contest, with the first instance in 1980 and the most recent in 2008 when Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi tied on 59 hot dogs. Chestnut then defeated Kobayashi by being the first to finish his plate of five to win the mustard-yellow belt.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest results

Pinnacle has offered odds on Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest since 2006 and the table below shows the total number of hot dogs eaten by the winner in that time.

Year (Women)

Winner

HDB

2020

Joey Chestnut

75

2020 (W)

Miki Sudo

48.5

2019

Joey Chestnut

71 

2019 (W)

Miki Sudo

31

2018

Joey Chestnut

74

2018 (W)

Miki Sudo

37

2017

Joey Chestnut

72

2017 (W)

Miki Sudo

41

2016

Joey Chestnut

70

2016 (W)

Miki Sudo

38.5

2015

Matt Stonie

62

2015 (W)

Miki Sudo

38

2014

Joey Chestnut

61

2014 (W)

Miki Sudo

34

2013

Joey Chestnut

69

2013 (W)

Sonya Thomas

36.75

2012

Joey Chestnut

68

2012 (W)

Sonya Thomas

45

2011

Joey Chestnut

62

2011 (W)

Sonya Thomas

40

2010

Joey Chestnut

54

2009

Joey Chestnut

68

2008

Joey Chestnut

59

2007

Joey Chestnut

66

2006

Kakeru Kobayashi

53.75

*Kobayashi won six straight titles between 2001 and 2006.

The fluctuation in the numbers could be due to the increased expectations of Joey Chestnut over time. It is interesting to note that, despite winning, he massively underperformed in 2010 – the disparity between Hot Dogs eaten between 2009 and 2011 underlines this – with 2010’s result being the noticeable outlier.

Stonie managed to end the eight-year reign of Joey Chestnut back in 2015 by eating 62 hot dogs - well below the 66.5 offered by Pinnacle. In 2020, the men’s Total Hot Dogs Eaten by the Winner market opened at 73.5 with a small leaning towards Under.

How to pick your wiener: Is there a value bet?

Chestnut has eaten 70 or more HDB for the last five years and bettered his previous efforts in three out of those years. And after a record-breaking 2020, Over 75.5 HDB could be achievable this year.

To see his record-breaking attempt of 75 HDB, check out this video of last year’s contest:

Over the years, genuine challengers to Chestnut’s competitive eating crown have been few and far between - Matt Stonie is the only man to come close (his success at Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in 2015 is the only break in Chestnut’s current 13-year reign of dominance).

After Stonie narrowly edged out Chestnut, the MLE (Major League Eating) scene changed. Stonie became the youngest but also the top-ranked competitive eater in MLE, demoting Chestnut to second. However, Chestnut reclaimed that position and he managed an impressive competition record of 75 HDB in 2020.

Weighing just 130 pounds, Stonie is a multiple competitive eating record holder, but after a steady decline in his performance since his title-winning 62 HDB effort in 2015 (57 in 2016, 48 in 2017, 42 in 2018 and 46 in 2019), he will be hoping to do better in 2021.

Another contender who could be considered a genuine threat is Geoffrey Esper. Esper is ranked number two in the competitive eating standings and has previously shocked Joey Chestnut at a doughnut-eating contest - Esper ate 235 in six minutes while Chestnut could “only” manage 200.

The problem for anyone looking to challenge Chestnut is that he’s been so consistent in recent years and has really set the bar high in terms of the record.

One way to keep ahead of the market is to keep an eye on the contestant’s form in other competitions and check their social media accounts for updates. A good example of this is 2017 when Joey Chestnut posted a video online of his preparations (where he put away an impressive 77 hot dogs). That resulted in a fairly hefty line move on the Total market. Pinnacle had the mark set at 68.5 prior to the video being uploaded and it had moved to 72.5 a day after. 

It’s not just about the men: Women’s hot dog eating contest

Women have competed in Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest since 2011 - Sonya Thomas was the first-ever winner of the women’s competition and held the record of 45 HDB from 2012 until 2020.

Thomas won the first three instalments of the women’s event before Miki Sudo triumphed with a total of 34 HDB in 2014. Sudo has consistently improved and broke the women’s world record in 2020 with 48.5 HDB’s.

In terms of the outright betting for the women's competition, there’s a clear market favourite with Miki Sudo currently 1.067* to win with the field at 9.850*.

Will we see a Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest record?

In competitive eating circles, Joey Chestnut is a superstar. The 6ft, 230-pound California native has dominated Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest for over a decade.

Despite Stonie’s win in 2015, many believe the biggest rivalry in competitive eating is still considered to be Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi. Unfortunately, fans haven’t got to see many contests featuring both as contractual issues and competition controversy means Kobayashi hasn’t competed at the July 4 event since 2010.

There might be challengers but Chestnut is clearly the man to beat. It will be incredibly difficult for anyone to take the title away from him come July 4. Anyone looking for slightly longer odds might want to look at the chances of Chestnut beating his own record of 75 HDB.

Can “Jaws” do the unthinkable and beat his record again? Is it humanly possible to eat close to 80 hot dogs in 10 minutes? All will become clear on July 4.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.

Odds subject to change

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