close
Jun 27, 2018
Jun 27, 2018

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting preview

What is Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest format

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest results

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting preview

The biggest event in the competitive eating calendar is on July 4 as Coney Island plays host to Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Can anyone beat Joey “Jaws” Chestnut? Will we see a Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest record? Read on to find out.

Could you imagine eating 72 hot dogs in 10 minutes? It seems impossible, but Joey Chestnut managed that in 2017 when he won Nathan's Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Bettors can now bet on whether Joey “Jaws” Chestnut will claim his eleventh Nathan’s Hot Dog-Eating Contest title and if he (or anyone else) will eclipse his all-time record of 73-and-a-half hot dogs.

What is Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest started in 1914 and is held every year on July 4. Considered to be the highlight of the competitive eating calendar, millions of viewers tune in to watch the competition. In addition to the kudos that comes with devouring more hot dogs than anyone else, whoever consumes the most wins a hefty chunk of a $40,000 in prize purse.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting is obviously a bit of fun, but with some basic knowledge of how the competition works and a quick look at previous results, there could be some value on offer - the Totals odds for the men’s competition currently favour over 70.5 hot dogs at 1.847* (the under is priced at 1.980*).

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest format

The International Federation of Competitive Eating (IFOCE) states that the winner of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is the contestant that consumes and keeps down (this is an important if rather unpalatable thought) the most hot dogs and buns (HDB) in the allotted time (10 minutes). Drinks are permitted when eating, with water being a popular choice, as are condiments.

“Jaws” has consumed an average of 64.77 HDB since 2008 and although there was a dip in 2014 and 2015, over 70.5 HDB certainly looks achievable.

A scorekeeper is assigned to each contestant to keep track of each hot dog consumed. Hot dogs that are not consumed in their entirety count provided a sufficient amount has been eaten, dogs still in a contestant’s mouth when the time has elapsed count if they are then swallowed. Messy eating is punishable by a yellow penalty card, and contestants can be disqualified if they regurgitate.

If the scores are tied after 10 minutes, it goes to a five-hot-dog eat-off to see who can eat the quickest and if the contestants still cannot be split then it will go to a sudden-death eat-off of a single hot dog.

Eat-offs are however a rarity, having only occurred twice in the history of the contest. With the first instance in 1980 and the most recent in 2008 when Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi tied on 59 hot dogs. Chestnut then defeated Kobayashi by being the first to finish his plate of five to win the mustard-yellow belt.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest results

Pinnacle has offered odds on Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest since 2006 and the table below looks at how the odds on the Totals for the number of hot dogs eaten by the winner has changed over time

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest results

Year

Winner

HDB

2017

Joey Chestnut

72

2017

Miki Sudo

41

2016

Joey Chestnut

70

2016

Miki Sudo

38.5

2015

Matt Stonie

62

2015

Miki Sudo

38

2014

Joey Chestnut

61

2014

Miki Sudo

34

2013

Joey Chestnut

69

2013

Sonya Thomas

36.75

2012

Joey Chestnut

68

2012

Sonya Thomas

45

2011

Joey Chestnut

62

2011

Sonya Thomas

40

2010

Joey Chestnut

54

2009

Joey Chestnut

68

2008

Joey Chestnut

59

2007

Joey Chestnut

66

2006

Kakeru Kobayashi*

53.75

*Kobayashi won six straight titles between 2001 and 2006.

As you can see from the table our traders have found it hard to gauge the number of hot dogs eaten, given that the winner has eaten above the over every year except on two occasions. 

The fluctuation in the numbers could be due to the increased expectations of Joey Chestnut over time. It is interesting to note that, despite winning, he massively underperformed in 2010 - the Totals number drastically reduced the following year by 10 hot dogs. Sharp bettors would have taken into account his prior records all finishing above the 58.5 offered and backed the over at 2.060. 

In 2015, Matt Stonie managed to deprive the eight-year reign of Joey Chestnut by eating 62 hot dogs - well below the 66.5 offered by Pinnacle. Last year, the “Men - Total Hot Dogs eaten by the winner?” market opened at 68.5 with the under favoured at 1.847 and the over-priced at 2.010. 

In the build-up to contest, Joey posted a video online of his preparations (where he put away an impressive 77 hot dog) that resulted in a fairly hefty line move on the Total. Pinnacle had the mark set at 68.5 prior to the video being uploaded and it had moved to 72.5 a day after.

How to pick your wiener

Over the years, genuine challengers to Chestnut’s competitive eating crown have been few and far between - Matt Stonie is the only man to come close (his success at Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in 2015 is the only break in Chestnut’s current 11-year reign). 

After Stonie narrowly edged out Chestnut, the MLE (Major League Eating) scene changed. Stonie became the youngest but also the top-ranked competitive eater in MLE, demoting Chestnut to second. However, it didn’t take long for Chestnut to reclaim that position and he managed an impressive competition record of 72 HDB last year.

To see the man himself in action, check out this video of last year’s contest:

Weighing just 130 pounds, Stonie holds 13 competitive eating records but after a steady decline in his performance since his title-winning 62 HDB effort in 2015 (57 in 2016 and 48 in 2017) he is currently priced at 9.390* to win this year’s event. 

Carmen Cincotti is perhaps the most likely challenger to take the mustard-yellow belt from the fan (and betting) favourite - the 25-year-old is currently 7.640* to eat his way glory on July. Cincotti was last year’s runner-up with a credible 60 HDB. He claims to be “moving into 70+” but whether he can do it when it matters (and whether it’s all mind games) remains to be seen.

Not just about the men

Women have competed in Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest since 2011 - Sonya Thomas was the first ever winner and currently holds the record with 45 HDB in 2012. 

Thomas won the first three instalments of the women’s event before Miki Sudo triumphed with a total of 34 HDB in 2014. Sudo has consistently improved on her total and last year, she won her fourth straight title, devouring 41 hot dogs - Sudo also gained notoriety for refusing to follow tradition and use a nickname. 

In terms of the outright betting for the women's competition - much like the men's - there’s a clear market favourite with Miki Sudo is currently (1.227*). Bettors can also bet on the Totals for the number of hot dogs eaten by the women's winner - the mark is currently set at 41.5.

Will we see a Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest record?

In competitive eating circles, Joey Chestnut is a superstar. The 6ft, 230-pound California native has dominated Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest for almost a decade. Despite Matt Stonie’s win in 2015, the biggest rivalry in competitive eating is still considered to be Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi - contractual issues and competition controversy means Kobayashi hasn’t competed at the July 4 event since 2010.

Since the duration of the contest was changed to ten minutes in 2008 “Jaws” has consumed an average of 64.77 and although there was a dip in 2014 and 2015, over 70.5 HDB certainly looks achievable. Chestnut has proven himself in the past and has a personal best (and record) of 73.5 HDB in ten minutes - the question bettors will have to answer is whether he can do it on the big stage in Coney Island once again.

Odds subject to change

Betting Resources - Empowering your betting

Pinnacle’s Betting Resources is one of the most comprehensive collections of expert betting advice anywhere online. Catering to all experience levels our aim is simply to empower bettors to become more knowledgeable.