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Jan 31, 2017
Jan 31, 2017

Academy Awards 2017: Analysing the odds movement

Who can beat La La Land?

Which Actor saw the biggest odds movement?

Academy Awards 2017: Analysing the odds movement

Credit: Getty Images

On February 26, the 89th edition of the Academy Awards will shower Hollywood's brightest with adoration. This prestigious event gives bettors's a chance to make a profit, but only if they can beat these very unusual markets. Read on to find out what the odds movement in Pinnacle's betting markets reveal for the winner of the coveted Oscar statues.
With the official nominations announced, our markets have reopened with drastically different numbers. We’ll address those moves in sections below, but first things first.

Which nominees won both the Globes and the Critics Choice awards (December 11th)? Keep in mind that the Screen Actors Guild Awards, to be announced on January 29th, will have a similarly predictive effect on acting category markets.

 

Critics Choice

Golden Globes

Best Supp. Actress

Viola Davis

Viola Davis

Best Supp. Actor

Mahershala Ali

Aaron Taylor-Johnson

Best Actress

Natalie Portman

Isabelle Huppert/Emma Stone

Best Actor

Casey Affleck

Casey Affleck/Ryan Gosling

Best Director

Damien Chazelle

Damien Chazelle

Best Film

La La Land

La La Land/Moonlight

It should be noted that the Golden Globes splits its Best Picture/Best Actress/Best Actor awards by genre groups, thus the multiple winners.

Best Supporting Actress

Heading into the SAG awards, it certainly seems like this race is Viola Davis’s to win . A many-time nominee for at-large awards, Davis had never won on any of the biggest stages, but her performance in Fences earned her dual honors, sending her odds from 1.255 pre-Globes to a current 1.090*

If you’re looking for a long shot to pick against Davis, three-time Oscar nominee Michelle Williams is the lone other single digit nominee, presently priced at 7.45*, while Naomie Harris (11.17*) could score an upset if sweeping Moonlight sentiment surprises on Oscar night. 

Best Actress

Perhaps the strongest category of the season, three winners over two awards shows have left bettors with guesswork to do on Best Actress. While some insiders were dubbing the race as a dead heat exclusive to Emma Stone (La La Land) and Natalie Portman (Jackie), veteran French Actress Huppert’s (Elle) Globes triumph over Portman sent tongues wagging.

With Emma Stone just below even money at 1.719* and with former favourite Portman now at 2.63*, up from 1.671, the question is whether the market over-adjusted, or whether Huppert’s win putting her new price at 5.52* doesn’t show enough respect.

Best Actor

Casey Affleck’s (Manchester by the Sea) march through awards season continued at the Golden Globes with another victory, moving his odds from 1.676 to a current 1.255*. Affleck’s moving portrayal of a man with fatherhood foisted upon him is certainly deserving, but not the sure thing the markets are making Viola Davis out to be because of Davis’ Fences partner Denzel Washington.

One of Hollywood’s all-timers, Washington gave a powerful performance in his self-directed efforts and bettors are correctly paying him due respect by not handing Affleck the statue now, though Denzel’s move was a big one, from 2.620 in early January to 4.00.* Ryan Gosling, who won the Best Actor award for Comedy/Musical at the Globes, still clocks in at 10.11*, barely moving from pre-Globes due to his competition not including either Washington or Affleck.

Best Director

Previously recognized for Whiplash, director Damien Chazelle is the in the driver’s seat here, with twin Best Director awards seeing his odds move to 1.133* (1.412 pre-Globes). His La La Land is somewhat perfect fodder for an industry that mostly exists in LA, subject matter that industry can relate to and nostalgia for the classic musicals of Hollywood’s past being what it is.

Barring a surprise sentimental push for Washington’s twin-role efforts, it appears Chazelle’s competition will come from two indy directors, Kenneth Logan (Manchester by the Sea) and Barry Jenkins (Moonlight). Both are priced at 7.53* in a race bettors seem to be awarding to Chazelle.

Best Picture

La La Land is the prohibitive favourite here, with its seven-statue sweep at the Globes sending its price from 1.510 in early January to  a current price of 1.222*. Considering the film is supposed to appeal most to Californians, you can understand the market sentiment.

La La Land has star power, nostalgia, freshness and quality and is being hailed as the best musical of this generation. It’s tough to bet against.

If you’re looking to bet on one of the longer shots, Moonlight has a compelling argument. Its win over Manchester by the Sea in the Globes marked the film as La La Land’s biggest competition, but even before that, the Oscars were facing a controversy dating back a year ago, when complaints of a lack of representation of people of colour led to public outcry from actors with star power and ultimately changes to the academy’s membership.

If you believe that sentiment may still exist, there’s reason to give Moonlight a better chance than the markets do at 3.88*

Get into the betting action with the best Academy Awards betting odds only at Pinnacle. 

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