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Jun 27, 2017
Jun 27, 2017

Nathan’s 2017 Hot Dog Eating Contest betting

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest format

Past over/under odds for the number of hot dogs eaten by the winner

Can anyone challenge Joey Chestnut for the title?

Nathan’s 2017 Hot Dog Eating Contest betting

Could you imagine eating 70 hot dogs in 10 minutes? It seems impossible, but Joey Chestnut managed that in 2016 when he won Nathan's Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest. Can Joey “Jaws” Chestnut claim his tenth Nathan’s Hot Dog-Eating Contest title? Will he eclipse his all-time record of 73 and a half hot dogs? Read on to find out.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is held every year on July 4. Considered to be the highlight of the competitive eating calendar, millions of viewers tune in to watch the competition with whoever consumes the most hot dogs winning $40,000 in prize money.

Betting on Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is obviously a bit of fun for bettors, but with some basic knowledge of how the competition works and a quick look at previous results, there could be some value on offer - the odds on the over/under favour the under at 1.847* on either side of 68.5 hot dogs (the over is priced at 2.010*).

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest format

The International Federation of Competitive Eating (IFOCE) states that the winner of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is the contestant that consumes and keeps down (this is an important if rather unpalatable thought) the most hot dogs and buns (HDB) in the allotted time (10 minutes). Drinks are permitted when eating, with water being a popular choice, as are condiments. 

Since the duration of the contest was changed to ten minutes in 2008 “Jaws” has consumed an average of 63.875 - making the under 68.5 an attractive option.

A scorekeeper is assigned to each contestant to keep track of each hot dog consumed. Hot dogs that are not consumed in their entirety count provided a sufficient amount has been eaten, dogs still in a contestant’s mouth when the time has elapsed count if they are then swallowed. Messy eating is punishable by a yellow penalty card, and contestants can be disqualified if they regurgitate.

If the scores are tied after 10 minutes, it goes to a five-hot-dog eat-off to see who can eat the quickest and if the contestants still cannot be split then it will go to a sudden-death eat-off of a single hot dog.

Eat-offs are however a rarity, having only occurred twice in the history of the contest. With the first instance in 1980 and the most recent in 2008 when Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi tied on 59 hot dogs. Chestnut then defeated Kobayashi by being the first to finish his plate of five to win the mustard-yellow belt.

Cutting the mustard

Pinnacle has offered odds on Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest since 2006 and the table below looks at how the odds on the over/under for the number of hot dogs eaten by the winner has changed over time:

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds history

YearHot Dogs Eaten By WinnerOver/UnderOdds
2016 70 66.5 Hot Dogs 1.64/2.28
2015 62 66.5 Hot Dogs 1.833/2.02
2014 61 69.5 Hot Dogs 1.909/1.676
2013 69 63.5 Hot Dogs 1.481/2.750
2012 68 62.5 Hot Dogs 2.180/1.633
2011 62 58.5 Hot Dogs 2.060/1.806
2010 54 68.5 Hot Dogs 2.300/1.725
2009 68 60.5 Hot Dogs 1.588/2.500
2008 59 58.5 Hot Dogs 1.781/1.794
2007 66 57 Hot Dogs 1.833/2.020
2006 53 and ¾ 50 Hot Dogs 1.410/3.100

As you can see from the table our traders have found it hard to gauge the number of hot dogs eaten, given that the winner has eaten above the over every year except on two occasions.

The fluctuation in the numbers could be due to the increased expectations of Joey Chestnut over time. It is interesting to note that, despite winning, he massively underperformed in 2010 - the number on the over/under drastically reduced the following year by 10 hot dogs. Sharp bettors would have taken into account his prior records all finishing above the 58.5 offered and backed the over at 2.060.

Chestnut has proven himself in the past and has a personal best (and record) of 73 and a half HDB in ten minutes.

In 2015, Matt Stonie managed to deprive the eight-year reign from Joey Chestnut by eating 62 hot dogs - well below the 66.5 offered by Pinnacle. Last year, Pinnacle set the bar at 65.5 hot dogs eaten, with the over clearly favoured at 1.657 and the under priced at 2.25. Joey dully delivered with a tally of 70 hot dogs in 10 minutes.

How to pick your wiener

After Stonie narrowly edged out Chestnut, the MLE (Major League Eating) scene changed. Stonie became the youngest but also the top-ranked competitive eater in MLE, demoting Chestnut to second. However, it didn’t take long for Chestnut to reclaim his crown and he is now the top-ranked competitor heading into this year’s competition.

To see the man himself in action, check out this video of last year’s contest:

Weighing just 130 pounds, Stonie holds 18 competitive eating records, with his most notable record being 241 Hooters chicken wings in 10 minutes and 25 Big Macs in 22 minutes - he is currently 4.880* to eat the most HDB on July 4.

Joey Chestnut is a heavy favourite in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting - currently available at 1.261* in Pinnacle’s “Will Joey Chestnut win the Men’s Event” market. The alternative in that market doesn’t just include Chetnut’s main threat Stonie, Carmen Cincotti is another notable name that could cause an upset (No in the “Will Joey Chestnut win the Men’s Event” market is currently priced at 4.070*)

Not just about the men

Women have competed in Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest since 2011 - Sonya Thomas was the first ever winner and currently holds the record with 45 HDB in 2012.

Thomas’ dominant reign came to an end in 2013 when Miki Sudo won with a total of 34 HDB.  Sudo has consistently improved on her total and last year, she won her third straight title, devouring 38.5 hot dogs - Sudo also gained notoriety for refusing to follow tradition and use a nickname.

In terms of the outright betting for the women's competition - much like the men's - there are only two real contenders in the market. Miki Sudo is a heavy favourite (1.300*) with Sonya Thomas attracting some interest at 4.330*. Bettors can also bet on the over/under for the number of hot dogs eaten by the women's winner - the market is split right down the middle at 1.925* for both over and under 37.5 HDB.

Betting on Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

In competitive eating circles, Joey Chestnut is a superstar. The 6ft, 230-pound California native has dominated Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest for almost a decade. Despite Matt Stonie’s win in 2015, the biggest rivalry in competitive eating is still considered to be Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi - contractual issues and competition controversy means Kobayashi hasn’t competed at the July 4 event since 2010.

Since the duration of the contest was changed to ten minutes in 2008 “Jaws” has consumed an average of 63.875 - making the under 68.5 an attractive option. However, Chestnut has proven himself in the past and has a personal best (and record) of 73 and a half HDB in ten minutes - the question bettors will have to answer is whether he can do it on the big stage in Coney Island once again.

Odds subject to change

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Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds
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