Villarreal host Valencia in this week's highlight La Liga match. Both teams will need to get back to winning ways after poor starts to the season. Looking for value in the Villarreal vs. Valencia odds? Read on to inform your Villarreal vs. Valencia prediction.
A close look at the Villarreal vs. Valencia odds
The moneyline odds make Villarreal slight favourites to edge what looks like a close game with home field advantage no doubt a factor influencing the odds.
It is not expected to be an especially high scoring game with under 2.5 goals slightly favoured at 1.934*.
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Time: Sunday 23 Septemeber 14:45 UTC kickoff
Venue: El Madrigal
Villarreal vs Valencia Predicted lineups
Villarreal predicted lineup
Asenjo; Gaspar, Gonzalez, Ruiz, Costa; Raba, Trigueros, Morlanes, Layun; Ekambi, Moreno
Carlos Bacca will push for a starting place ahead of Karl Toko Ekambi after scoring the winner against Leganes last time out. Bettors should watch for team news as Javier Calleja may rotate his side around the midweek Europa League fixture.
Valencia predicted lineupNeto; Gaya, Murillo, Gabriel, Piccini; Guedes, Wass, Parejo, Soler; Batshuayi, Rodrigo Moreno
Marcelino has yeat to settle on his best team after a difficult start to the season. Kondogbia, Cheryshev and Gameiro are just a few of the players who could return to the team after the defeat to Real Madrid.
Villarreal vs. Valencia statistics
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Villarreal’s last three La Liga games
- Valencia are yet to record a win in any competition this season
- This match sees last season’s fifth place side welcome the fourth place finishers
- Villarreal have an xG per game of 0.93 and xGA of 1.41.
- Valencia have an xG per game of 1.64 and xGA of 1.30.
Inform your Villarreal vs. Valencia prediction
Two of last season’s La Liga top five will hope to kick-start their campaign after a poor start to the season in this week’s game at El Madrigal.
Hosts Villarreal have just a single victory to their name whilst visitors Valencia are yet to record a victory in any competition so far this season.
Last weekend’s win against Leganes provided some respite for Villarreal after picking up just one point from their opening three fixtures. However, they were outplayed by their opponents according to expected goals and have been so in each of their La Liga matches so far.
- Read: How to make accurate soccer predictions
Valencia, in contrast, can consider themselves a little unfortunate to have collected such a low number of points. They have recorded their three points from an expected points total of over six, a stark contrast to last season’s overperformance of that statistic.
Despite their lowly points total Valencia have only really performed poorly in one fixture so far (against Espanyol in matchweek two), excluding the midweek Champions League loss to ten man Juventus.
With just three goals scored so far, last season’s clinical touch has eluded the Valencians but with the ability of Michy Batshuayi added to an already talented attack, that run of underperformance is unlikely to continue much longer.
Villarreal’s underlying statistics prompt a little more cause for concern with a negative expected goal difference so far despite somewhat favorable fixtures, bottom of the table Leganes have provided the Yellow Submarine with their single victory so far.
Villarreal vs. Valencia: Where is the value?
Where bettors see value in this game depends upon to what extent they feel the market has factored in the team’s contrasting fortunes so far this season.
If Valencia continue to produce solid performances then they should eventually regress to the mean and reproduce the form that pushed them towards the top of La Liga last season.
Bettors who expect this to happen in the near future should appreciate odds that make Valencia slight outsiders against a struggling Villarreal. They are available at 1.877* on the +0.25 handicap which could offer value considering the two sides relative performance levels.
Considering the attacking talent available to the Valencians, bettors could also consider backing the away side to score over one goal at 1.787*. Despite their modest goal tally Valencia have recorded an average of 1.64 expected goals per game this season.
To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.