Oct 19, 2018
Oct 19, 2018

La Liga preview: Villarreal vs. Atletico Madrid

Villarreal vs. Atletico Madrid odds

Inform your Villarreal vs. Atletico Madrid prediction

Analysing the Villarreal vs. Atletico Madrid stats

La Liga preview: Villarreal vs. Atletico Madrid

Villarreal play Atletico Madrid in the La Liga game of the week. Looking for value in the Villarreal vs. Atletico Madrid odds? Read on to inform your Villarreal vs. Atletico Madrid prediction.

A close look at the Villarreal vs. Atletico Madrid odds

The Money Line odds favour the away side to win this game with Atletico's an implied win percentage at over 40%. It is expected to be a low-scoring game compered to the La Liga average with under 2.5 total goals available at 1.561*.

Time: Saturday October 20, 16:30 UTC kickoff

Venue: El Madrigal

Villarreal vs. Atletico Madrid statistics

  • Villarreal have scored just six goals in their opening eight La Liga matches
  • Atletico Madrid have conceded an average of 0.5 goals per game in La Liga
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Atletico's last 6 La Liga away games
  • Atletico have kept a clean sheet in their last four league matches
  • The hosts have failed to score in their last 3 home matches

Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid predicted lineups

Villarreal predicted lineup

4-2-3-1: Asenjo; Gaspar, Ruiz, Gonzalez, Costa; Mori, Trigueros; Fornals, Cazorla, Layun; Moreno

Victor Ruiz is doubtful whilst Bruno Soriano, Javi Fuegoand Santiago Caseres remain long term absentees.

Atletico Madrid predicted lineup

4-4-2: Oblak; Juanfran, Hernandez, Godin, Luis; Saul, Rodri, Koke, Lemar; Costa, Griezmann

Diego Costa is doubtful and may be replaced by Nikola Kalinic in the Atleti attack.

Inform your Villarreal vs. Atletico Madrid prediction

Two of last season's La Liga top five meet at El Madrigal fresh from contrasting starts to the season. The visitors, Atletico Madrid, sit third in the table just one point behind leaders Sevilla after losing just one of their opening eight fixtures.

Whilst that is business as usual for Atletico their opponents, Villarreal, have struggled after what was a promising 2017/18 campaign. They have lost half of their La Liga fixtures so far and are already off the pace in the race for the European positions.

The two sides' strong finishes to the last campaign were due, in part, to significantly outperforming their expected goals for and against. However, whilst this has been a common occurrence for Atletico under Diego Simeone, that performance seemed less sustainable for Villarreal.

Atleti's defiance of their expected goal statistics is due to the quality of their personnel. Since goalkeeper Jan Oblak joined the Madrid side they have never conceded more than their expected goals against total, whilst in Antoine Griezmann and Diego Costa Atleti possess two of the most efficient goalscorers in European soccer.

Villarreal's current run looks more like natural regression towards the mean after a season of outperformance. Their leading strikers, Karl Toko Ekambi and Gerard Moreno, are actually heavily underperforming their underlying statistics which is a big change compared to how efficient the side was in front of goal last season.

Worryingly for Villarreal they are yet to play any of last season's top three. Atletico Madrid will likely provide the sternest test to the Yellow Submarine so far and they will need to perform more in-line with last season's output to secure a result against elite opposition.

Villarreal vs. Atletico Madrid: Where is the value?

Considering the home team's misfiring attack and the fact Atletico have conceded just four goals this season, backing Villarreal to score under 0.75 goals could offer value at 2.050*.

Atletico lost just five times in La Liga last season and have started this campaign in similar fashion. The Atletico +0.25 handicap is available at 1.395* and could offer value even at relatively low odds. Bettors who are not concerned with covering the draw may instead opt to back the away side on the Money Line.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.

Odds subject to change

Betting Resources - Empowering your betting

Pinnacle’s Betting Resources is one of the most comprehensive collections of expert betting advice anywhere online. Catering to all experience levels our aim is simply to empower bettors to become more knowledgeable.