Jan 26, 2018
Jan 26, 2018

La Liga preview: Valencia vs. Real Madrid

Valencia vs Real Madrid odds

Inform your Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction

Valencia vs. Real Madrid expected goals

La Liga preview: Valencia vs. Real Madrid

Valencia host Real Madrid in this weekend’s La Liga game of the week. Valencia enter this game ahead of their visitors in the table but are far from favourites. Where is the value in the Valencia vs. Real Madrid odds? Read on for the information you need to make your own Valencia vs. Real Madrid prediction.

Display images to show real-time content

What do the Valencia vs. Real Madrid odds suggest?

Whilst Real Madrid are strong money line favourites the odds suggest this may be a close game. Valencia are favourites on the +1.5 handicap at 1.561* so are expected to keep the game within a single goal.

The odds also suggest goals. Over 3 goals to be scored in the game is available at 1.485*. This is understandable since the two sides have scored 80 La Liga goals between them so far this season.

Inform your Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction

Valencia enter this game in an unfamiliar position, finding themselves ahead of visitors Real Madrid in La Liga. Valencia have only lost once at the Mestalla so far this season and are a full five points ahead of Saturday’s opponents. Both sides’ title challenges have ended and they appear to be in their own battle for third place. Automatic Champions League qualification is the prize available for La Liga’s third-placed team.

Real have struggled this season and have won just one of their last four La Liga games. That win was an emphatic one last time out against Deportivo La Coruna. The Madrid side were 7-1 victors through a Luka Modric goal and braces from Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale and Nacho.

This was a big improvement from Madrid’s previous performance, a 1-0 defeat at home to Villarreal. This match typified Real’s season so far as they outscored their opponents by 2.35 to 0.86 on expected goals but somehow failed to score. Cristiano Ronaldo alone had 11 shots in the match totalling 1.45 expected goals. They were, however, defeated by Leganés in their midweek Copa del Rey game. Real chose to rest the key players from the win over Deportivo and will be back to full strength against this weekend.

Valencia are third in La Liga, ahead of Saturday’s visitors, but they have won only two of their last five games. Until recently, Valencia have consistently outscored their expected goals. Their success this season has been fuelled by their ability to make the most of their chances.

Valencia vs. Real Madrid 2017/18 Expected Goals

Valencia vs. Real Madrid 2017/18 Expected Goals

 Team

Goals For

Expected goals for

Points

Expected Points

Valencia

41

31.97

40

31.13

Real Madrid

39

47.49

35

42.69

 

The early La Liga game between the two sides is a prime example of how finishing chances has affected their seasons.

Valencia left the Bernabeu with a draw despite being outshot by 22 to 7. Karim Benzema was the main culprit for Real, somehow failing to score from an expected goals total of 2.76.

If the Deportivo result signals that Real’s stars have finally found their form in front of goal then Valencia’s recent struggles will continue.

Both teams may well be regressing to the mean. Real finally finished their chances against Deportivo, whilst the clinical shooting that led to Valencia’s strong start has been absent recently.

If Real continue to finish their chances then they are worthy favourites against a Valencia side who must once again make the most of their chances to stay in the game.

Real’s poor finishing has cost them this season and will be a key factor against an overperforming Valencia side. Real Madrid could offer value for both money line and handicap bettors if they can continue their recent improvement.

This game is also likely to have a high number of goals scored. Over/under bettors will be particularly interested in Real’s ability to create chances and Valencia’s strength when it comes to finishing any that fall their way. 

Betting Resources - Empowering your betting

Pinnacle’s Betting Resources is one of the most comprehensive collections of expert betting advice anywhere online. Catering to all experience levels our aim is simply to empower bettors to become more knowledgeable.