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Two weeks ago
Jan 4, 2018

La Liga Preview: Valencia vs. Girona

Have Girona been unlucky against the top sides?

How could home advantage affect the game?

Live Valencia vs. Girona odds

La Liga Preview: Valencia vs. Girona

La Liga debutants Girona travel to third-placed Valencia for the highlight fixture in La Liga this weekend. Read on to find out if there is value on offer in the Valencia vs. Girona odds.

Live Valencia vs. Girona odds

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Giant Killers: Have Girona been unlucky against the top sides?

In their debut season Girona have emerged with credit from their performances against La Liga’s best sides. They have not always managed to convert these performances into points, however, and are currently placed tenth in the La Liga table.

Girona against La liga top six

Girona against La Liga top six

Match 

Expected Goals For

Expected Goals Against

Goals For

Goals Against

Expected Points

Points

Vs Real Madrid (H)

2.26

1.58

2

1

1.92

3

Vs Barcelona  (H)

0.91

1.29

0

3

1.01

0

Vs Atletico Madrid (H)

2.57

0.85

2

2

2.56

1

Vs Villarreal (H)

1.78

1.23

1

2

1.75

0

Vs Sevilla (H)

2.57

0.85

0

1

1.82

0

Total

9.34

5.87

5

9

9.06

4



Girona have outscored top six opponents on expected goals in five out of six games so far this season but have only managed to win four points out of a possible 15.

When analysing such a small sample size, it is hard to tell whether Girona have been unfortunate or their underperformance is down to other factors. Some of this difference can be explained by the best teams being better at finishing or possessing a better goalkeeper than Girona. As a result, these teams could be more likely to convert and prevent chances, partially explaining Girona’s failure to turn supremacy into points.

Valencia’s high position in the table, in contrast, is due to consistently outscoring their expected goals total. They have scored their 36 La Liga goals from 27.82 expected goals, a league-high over-performance. If this trend continues then Girona may once again miss out on points despite creating better chances than their opponent.

How could home advantage effect the game?

The effect of home advantage is a much-discussed phenomenon in soccer betting. In the Premier League the average score is 1.6 to 1.2 in favour of the home side.

Girona’s strong performances against the top sides have all occurred at their home stadium. However, so far this season their home results are actually inferior to their record in away fixtures. This is probably caused by them facing their most difficult opponents exclusively at home so far this season.

Girona home vs away record

Girona home vs away record

Venue

Wins

Draws

Losses

Win Percentage

Opponent League Position (Average)

Home

3

2

4

33.33%

8

Away

8

3

3

57.14%

13.25

Five of their nine La Liga home games have been played against the league’s top six. As a result, they have yet to play any of the top sides away from home. The opponents in their home fixtures are placed an average of five positions higher than their away opponents. The disparity in the difficulty of Girona’s home and away schedules makes it hard to properly account for the value of their home advantage.

Despite suffering a defeat against Villarreal in their last home match, Valencia possess La Liga’s second-best home record. Again, it is difficult to tell how much of their home form is due to home advantage or simply due to Valencia being one of La Liga’s best sides regardless of venue. They have also only lost two away games so far this season.

Girona have proven that they can compete with the La Liga’s best in their home stadium. To compete with Valencia they will need to bring their strong home performances to the Mestalla.

Valencia vs. Girona odds: Where is the value?

The result of this game could be dependent upon whether both sides continue to defy their expected goals totals. If they revert to the mean then the game may be more evenly matched than the odds suggest. If finishing ability makes as big an impact on the game as it has on the league table then Valencia are deserved favourites.

The statistics suggest Girona are can perform well enough to make this another close game. Bettors who value expected goals statistics may find value in the Girona +1 handicap at 1.775*. If they can continue to create high-quality chances then Girona to score over 0.75 goals at 1.675* may also appeal to value bettors.

Alternatively, Valencia’s form so far this season suggests they are capable of continuing to outscore their expected goals. They will also hope to make the most of their home advantage. Bettors who expect the Valencia attack to continue finishing efficiently could find value in Valencia to score over 1.75 goals at 1.862*.

Odds subject to change

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