Valencia play Barcelona in this weekend's highlight match from La Liga. Looking for value in the Valencia vs. Barcelona odds? Read on to inform your Valencia vs. Barcelona prediction.
A close look at the Valencia vs. Barcelona odds
The moneyline odds make the away side the clear favourites with the implied probability of a Barcelona win at more than 55%*. This is reflected in the handicap odds with Barcelona -0.75 currently favoured at 1.833*.
The total goals line for this match is set at three which is above the La Liga average of 2.51 goals per game.
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Time: Sunday October 7 20:45 UTC kickoff
Venue: Mestalla stadium
Valencia vs Barcelona Predicted lineups
Valencia predicted lineup
Neto; Vezo, Gabriel, Diakhaby, Lato; Soler, Parejo, Kondogbia, Cheryshev; Gameiro, Batshuayi
Santi Mina and Ferran Torres are both doubtful due to injury and illness respectively. Goncalo Guedes offers an alternative to Cheryshev in the left midfield position. Daniel Wass and Rodirgo will also push for starting positions.
Barcelona predicted lineup
Ter Stegen; Semedo, Pique, Lenglet, Alba; Rakitic, Busquets, Coutinho; Dembele, Suarez, Messi
Samuel Umtiti and Sergi Roberto are both likely to miss out through injury. Lionel Messi should return to the side in place of Arturo Vidal or Phillippe Coutinho.
Valencia vs. Barcelona expected goals stats
- Valencia have drawn five of their last seven La Liga matches
- Barcelona are winless in their previous three league games
- Only Real Betis and Villarreal have underscored their expected goals by more than Valencia this season.
- Barca are La Liga’s top scoring team with 18 goals so far
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of Barcelona's last 7 La Liga away games (La Liga).
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 8 of Valencia's last 9 games in all competitions
Inform your Valencia vs. Barcelona prediction
Barcelona have failed to win any of their last three La Liga games but last weekend’s 1-1 draw with Athletic Bilbao featured a better performance than the score line suggests. Barca outshot their opponents 3.09 to 0.89 on expected goals as poor conversion undermined their good play.
The Catalans hit the post on two occasions in that match whilst being generally untroubled in defence aside from one lapse in concentration which Bilbao’s De Marcos punished.
Valencia have endured a difficult start to the season. Saturday’s win over Real Sociedad was their first of the season across all competitions, although they have at least proven difficult to beat. The Valencians have only lost one of their first seven La Liga fixtures.
Worryingly for Valencia, Lionel Messi was rotated against Bilbao but is likely to start this match. The Argentine has matched the home side’s La Liga goal total on his own. Add in Barca’s impressive performance in midweek away to Tottenham Hotspur and the champions look ominous again, despite their poor recent results in La Liga.
Valencia’s underlying statistics in attack have been better than their goals for total suggests, and there is enough talent in their forward line to suggest Barca need to be wary of giving up high-quality chances in the way they have done at times this season.
Valencia have covered for this misfiring attack by conceding at a rate of just 0.86 goals per game. How successfully that defensive record can stand up against Barca’s outstanding forward line is where the game is most likely to be won or lost unless their attack can finally find form against perhaps the league’s toughest opponents.
Valencia vs. Barcelona: Where is the value?
Barcelona are available on the -0.5 handicap at 1.645*. They could provide value at that price should they produce the same kind of performance they did against Bilbao but with the finishing touch they lacked in that match.
Equally, whilst Valencia have been solid in defence, it is difficult to see them preventing Barcelona from finding the net. Barca themselves have not been impenetrable at the back this season whilst Valencia’s attack has underperformed so far.
Backing over 2.5 goals 1.558* could provide some value to bettors confident in the offensive capabilities of both sides.
To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.