Aug 17, 2018
Aug 17, 2018

La Liga preview: Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia odds

Inform your Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia prediction

Analysing the Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia stats

La Liga preview: Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid

Valencia play Atletico Madrid on Monday night in the big match from the opening weekend of la Liga fixtures. Looking for value in the Valencia vs Atletico Madrid odds? Read on to inform your Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid prediction.

A close look at the Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid odds

The moneyline odds make this a very even game with neither side the clear favourite to win the match. Despite Atletico's high scoring Super Cup win this match is not expected to be a high scoring one. Under 2.5 goals available at 1.595*

Time: Monday August 20 18:00 UTC kickoff

Venue: Mestalla Stadium

Valencia vs Atletico Madrid Predicted lineups

Valencia predicted lineup

4-4-2: Neto; Gaya, Garay, Gabriel Paulista, Piccini; Wass, Parejo, Kondogbia, Soler; Rodrigo Moreno, Santi Mina

New signings Michy Batshuayi and Kevin Gameiro are not expected to start the match but could be involved from the bench. Cristian Piccini should make his debut at right back. Francis Coquelin misses out through injury.

Atletico Madrid predicted lineup

4-4-2: Jan Oblak; Juanfran, Gimenez, Godin, Luis; Koke, Rodri, Saul, Lemar; Costa, Griezmann

Atletico have one enforced change form their triumphant UEFA Super Cup winning team. Lucas Hernandez is suspended and will be replaced by Brazilian Felipe Luis. Santiago Arias and Stefan Savic provide alternatives to Juanfran and Gimenez.

    Inform your Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid prediction

    Valencia host last season's runners-up Atletico Madrid in a heavyweight clash from the first round of La Liga fixtures. Both teams have strengthened well over the summer and will be looking for a strong start here.

    Both teams had interesting campaigns during the 2017/18 season. They both scored significantly more and conceded a good deal less than their expected goals numbers. This suggests their high positions were influenced by either very efficient performances, fortune or a combination of the two.

    For Atletico Madrid this is a common occurrence. They have outperformed their expected totals in each of the last four seasons and it is easy to see why.

    In Antoine Griezmann and Diego Costa Atleti possess two of the most clinical strikers in European soccer whilst Jan Oblak is amongst the best goalkeepers in the world. This supposed over performance appears to be relatively sustainable.

    In contrast, Valencia do not have an extensive history of outperforming their performance underlying metrics.

    Their disastrous 2016/17 campaign was fueled by a defence that conceded over 14 goals more than their expected goals against. During the 2017/18 season the side experienced the opposite.

    New goalkeeper Neto and his defence conceded almost ten goals less than their expected goals against. Whether this swing is sustainable is questionable.

    This data is very relevant in a game that is expected to be very close. Atleti’s clinical attack combined with the brilliance of Oblak and their Godin led defence has often given them the edge in these circumstances, even if the stats suggest the game is closer than the final result.

    Whether Valencia can sustain last season’s performance levels to compete with a much improved Atleti remains to be seen.

    Unless they have found an Atletico-like ability to defy their underlying statistics, this could be a tough opening fixture for the hosts. Valencia may struggle to match last season’s performance.

    Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid: Where is the value?

    Atletico Madrid lost just five La Liga matches last season and their quality is unquestionable. The additions of Rodri and Lemar, as well as an increased threat from the bench in the form of Gelson Martins, make it likely they will earn a positive result.

    Atleti are available at 1.543* on the +0.5 handicap and could offer value at those odds.

    Atletico Madrid are also available at 1.813* to score over 1 goal. With the quality of Costa and Griezmann in attack they look good value to breach the Valencian defence on more than one occasion.

    Should they open the scoring then the introduction of the pacey Martins in attack alongside Thomas Lemar’s ability to progress the ball should present them with ample opportunities on the counter.

    To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.

    Odds subject to change

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