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Nov 19, 2018
Nov 19, 2018

Premier League preview: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea odds

Inform your Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea prediction

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea: Where is the value?

Premier League preview: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea

Tottenham host Chelsea in our highlight fixture in the Premier League this weekend in a match that could have a significant impact on the Premier League title race. Looking for value in the Tottenham vs. Chelsea odds? Read on to inform your Tottenham vs. Chelsea prediction.

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A close look at the Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea odds

The Money Line odds make Chelsea slight favourites at odds of 2.630*, to edge what looks like an extremely close match at Wembley. The implied probability of a win for Mauricio Sarri’s side is nearly 35%*.

The over/under total is set at 2.5 and 3 which means the betting market is expecting goals with over 2.5 and 3 goals currently priced at 2.000*.

Time: Saturday, November 24, 16:30 UTC kick-off

Venue: Wembley Stadium

Tottenham vs. Chelsea predicted lineups

Tottenham predicted lineup

(3-4-3) Lloris; Trippier, Alderweireld, Sanchez, Davies; Winks, Eriksen; Sissoko, Lucas, Son; Kane.

Tottenham team news:

Danny Rose and Jan Vertonghen are still unavailable, so the back four of Kieran Trippier, Davinson Sanchez, Toby Alderweireld and Ben Davies should remain the same.

Midfielder Mousa Dembele is not expected to return until after the New Year due to suffering ankle ligament damage against Wolves.

Chelsea predicted lineup

(4-3-3) Arrizabalaga; Azpilicueta, Rudiger, Luiz, Alonso; Jorginho, Kante, Barkley; Willian, Hazard, Morata.

Chelsea team news:

Cesc Fabregas is the only small injury concern for Chelsea after suffering from illness, though it is thought the Spaniard should make a full recovery in time for the weekend’s fixture.

Tottenham vs. Chelsea expected goals stats

• Tottenhamexpected goals per game: 1.73

• Tottenham expected goals against per game: 1.28

• Tottenham expected points per game: 1.73

• Chelsea expected goals per game: 2.06

• Chelsea expected goals against per game: 0.92

• Chelsea expected points per game: 2.16

Inform your Tottenham vs. Chelsea prediction

Tottenham have used more players than any other Premier League side this season as Mauricio Pochettino is still looking for his strongest eleven. Spurs have not been performing above expectation so far but have managed to grind out results, winning nine of their first 12 games, leaving them fourth in the Premier League table. Seven of those wins have come away from Wembley, giving the North London club the best away record of any side in the league.

Before the international break, Tottenham managed to narrowly defeat Crystal Palace, and were good value for the victory despite allowing Palace to come close occasionally. This means that the North London side now sit on 27 points, and is in fact the club's fourth best-ever points total at this stage of a season which demonstrates their ability to win matches despite not performing to their best ability.

This is the first time in the Premier League that four teams have 27+ points after 12 games which also highlights the strength of the top sides. So despite the talk of Tottenham underperforming, they have been performing amicably.

When analysing Chelsea, Maurizio Sarri has delivered a new style of play to the West London club this season, and the Blues have made 8,706 passes so far - averaging 67.8 percent possession which is impressive figures.

In game week 12, Chelsea struggled to break down a resilient Everton side at home and could only manage a draw, but the Blues created the clearer chances, and were a little unfortunate not to grab all three points. On another day it is highly likely they would have finished one of the chances they created, but it wasn’t a vintage performance and they will need to be better at Wembley to come away with all three points.

Sarri is now unbeaten in his first 12 matches as a Premier League manager, meaning the Italian has equaled the Premier League record for the most matches unbeaten for a debuting manager in the league. The former champions have been excellent to watch at times this season and it seems the Everton blip might even spur them on further. Eden Hazard and Ross Barkley have been two players to benefit from the managerial change, and the Blues now look much more solid all over the field with a strong balance to the team.

The former Napoli manager has drilled a possession-based style since his arrival from Italy and has focused on swift passing and ball retention, which is a style bettors should expect to continue this weekend.

Tottenham vs. Chelsea betting: Where is the value?

Based on form it is easy to see why the Money Line odds are so close, but with home advantage a 0 handicap bet on Tottenham at odds of 2.050* could represent value.

The Total Goals mark is set at 2.5 and 3 but the two sides have managed 47 goals between them in the Premier League this season, with Tottenham having an expected goals per game return of 1.73, whilst Chelsea’s is even higher at 2.06. Additionally, there has been over 2.5 goals in 58% of games involving Tottenham and 7 out of 12 games this season involving Mauricio Pochetinos side have finished with 3 or more goals. The average percentage of games where there were over 2.5 goals in the Premier League is 55% so odds of 2.000* on over 2.5 and 3 goals looks a sensible bet.

Bettors looking to other alternative markets it is also worth considering cards betting. The two sides have produced 30 yellow cards and racked up 131 fouls between them in 24 matches so far this season. The fact this match is also a London derby, and a top of the table clash, the passionate atmosphere and heated rivalry could result in an increase in the numbers of cards shown.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice. 

Odds subject to change

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