Jun 4, 2020
Jun 4, 2020

Soccer player props: Goalscorer betting in soccer

What is soccer player prop betting?

Soccer goalscorer betting

Goalscorer betting strategy

Soccer player props: Goalscorer betting in soccer

Player props provide soccer bettors an interesting range of markets on individual players. What is soccer player prop betting? How can you bet on goalscorers? What should bettors consider for a goalscorer betting strategy? Read on to find out.

What is soccer player prop betting?

Soccer player props are bets on the actions of individual players within a match. The most common bets available are those on player goals totals in the match. Occasionally, lines can also be found on player cards, assists, total passes and many other actions.

However, the most popular player props betting markets are the goalscorer markets.

What is goalscorer betting?

Bettors can wager on the total goals scored by a player in a match in a number of ways.

It is important to remember that unless otherwise stated these markets do not include extra time played at the end of tied knockout matches. They do include any additional time added to the end of the match for stoppages.

First goalscorer betting

This is a bet on the player to score the first goal in the match.

Anytime goalscorer betting

A bet on the player to score at any time in the match.

Last goalscorer betting

A bet on the player to score the last goal in a match

To score a brace betting

A bet on the player to score two or more goals in a match

Hattrick betting

A bet on the player to score three or more goals in the match

Player prop betting rules

What happens if my player does not start the game?

For anytime goalscorer and hattrick betting the player must start the game for action to stand.

For anytime goalscorer betting the bet will stand as long as the player takes part in the match. The means that bets on players who are substituted into the game will still stand.

First goalscorer bets will be voided if the player is substituted into the match after the first goal has been scored but will stand if the player is substituted into the match before the first goal has been scored.

What happens if my player is substituted off?

If a player starts the match the bet stands.

Do own goals count?

Own goals do not count.

Read Pinnacle’s betting rules for more information about our soccer betting rules.

Converting anytime goalscorer odds into probability

If a player is priced at 2.00 to score in a match he has a 50% implied probability of scoring. This means the player is priced to score in this fixture one in two times.

Pinnacle’s betting margin calculator can be used to convert odds into probability quickly.

Goalscorer betting example

These are the odds available on one bookmaker at the time of writing for Jadon Sancho to score for Broussia Dortmund in a Bundesliga match vs Paderborn:

Player

Anytime goalscorer

First goalscorer

Last goalscorer

Jadon Sancho

1.95

5.00

5.00

In this example the odds imply Jadon Sancho has a 51.28% chance of scoring in the match, a 20% chance of scoring first and a 20% chance of scoring last.

If the bettor places a bet on the Sancho anytime scorer line and the player scores a in the game he wins 1.95 times his stake. If Sancho fails to score he loses his stake.

Soccer player props betting strategy

There are some important considerations to account for when betting on anytime goalscorers.

Substitutions

Simply put, the more minutes a player plays the more likely he is to score. It therefore makes sense that the threat of a player being substituted should be factored in by bettors.

In some ways substitutes act as an extra margin for bookmakers since reduced gametime for starting players reduces their percentage chance of scoring.

If a player is substituted after 60 minutes he misses out on at least a third of the possible minutes available to score in.

As a result of this, selecting players who are likely to play the full match seems a logical option for bettors.

Position and formation changes

The aim of betting is to find value, that is where the chances of an event occurring are higher than those reflected by the odds. In the anytime goalscorer market this means finding a player more likely to score than the bookmaker’s odds imply.

There are various strategies to try and isolate these players. Usually bettors are looking for players for whom favourable tactics for their goalscoring chances have been deployed. This could mean a player playing further forward than expected, taking over penalty duty or becoming the target of a team’s set piece routines.

Penalties

Over the course of the 2018/19 Premier League season 84 goals of the 1072 scored in the league came from successful penalties. This equates to 7.8% of the goals scored across the league.

This means that penalty takers have an enhanced chance of scoring a goal compared to non-penalty takers. Goalscorer bettors would be wise to keep this in mind when assessing the odds.

The problem with anytime goalscorer betting tips

The primary issue with tipsters pushing anytime goalscorer selections is that probabilities are often lineup related. Unless that tipster has access to lineup information not known by the market ahead of time then any selections are likely to be irrelevant when the official lineups are announced.

The market is also generally a small stakes one with bookmaker’s often limiting accounts that have shown they can find value in player props markets so finding a sustainable strategy can become difficult.

If you found this article useful then read more soccer betting articles or visit Pinnacle’s Betting Resources.

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