Two weeks ago
Mar 6, 2018

La Liga preview: Sevilla vs. Valencia

La Liga preview: Sevilla vs. Valencia

Sevilla play Valencia in this weekend’s La Liga game of the week. Looking for value in the Sevilla vs. Valencia odds? Read on to inform your Sevilla vs. Valencia prediction.

A close look at the Sevilla vs. Valencia odds

Sevilla come into this game with four wins in their last five games and the odds suggest there is a greater than 40% chance of a win for the home side.

It is likely to be a particularly close game though, with Valencia 1.373* favourites on the +1 handicap.

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Sevilla vs. Valencia stats: What you need to know

Time: Saturday March 10, 15:15 GMT kickoff

Venue: Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium

Team news:

Sevilla: Jesus Navas (injury) is a doubt after missing Sevilla’s last two games

Valencia: Ezequiel Garay and Santi Mina are injury doubts but winger Andreas Pereira could return to the squad.

  • Sevilla La Liga home record: eight wins, three draws, two losses
  • Valencia’s La Liga away record: six wins, three draws, four losses
  • The Seville side have conceded 40 goals in La Liga (seventh most)
  • Luis Muriel (6 goals from 6.32 expected goals) is likely to lead the line for Sevilla
  • Valencia are undefeated in five La Liga matches
  • Los Che are the third highest scoring side in La Liga with 53 goals from 41.83 xG
  • A win for Sevilla would move them to within five points of their visitors

Inform your Sevilla vs. Valencia prediction

Fourth place Sevilla welcome fifth place Valencia to the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium in a game between the two most likely contenders for the final La Liga Champions League place.

Sevilla sit eight points behind their visitors and were encouraged by Valencia’s flagging form throughout December and January. The gap between the two dropped to seven points but it has since reopened slightly. Valencia are unbeaten in five games and Sevilla will need to end this good run to challenge for fourth position.

The difference between the two teams this season has been making the most of goalscoring opportunities. The pair have almost identical expected goals for totals (Sevilla 41.60 xG, Valencia 41.83 xG) but Valencia have scored 52 goals to Sevilla’s 36.

Sevilla typically field a single striker selecting one of Luis Muriel or Wissam Ben Yedder. Both strikers have scored 6 La Liga goals this season. In order to challenge for the top four Los Sevillistas will need their strikers to be more prolific.

Valencia, in contrast, can call upon three players who have scored over 10 La Liga goals. The Valencians play with two advanced strikers and can select two from Santi Mina, Rodrigo and Simone Zaza. This firepower has been behind much of Valencia’s good form this season.

Whilst Sevilla’s attackers have not been as prolific as hoped Valencia also possess a better defensive record than the home side. Sevilla have conceded 40 La Liga goals, more than 16th placed Alaves and allowed Atletico Madrid to score five past them in a recent match. Rodrigo, Zaza and Mina will expect to add to their tally.

Sevilla vs. Valencia: Where is the value?

Sevilla need a win here to keep their top four aspirations alive but the home side taking the initiative may play into Valencia’s hands.

Valencia’s attack possesses strong transitional players and playmakers whilst Rodrigo has been clinical this season. Santi Mina is doubtful for this game but Zaza is a more than capable replacement should the Spaniard be unable to start.

This, combined with Sevilla’s weaknesses in defence and need to attack, should provide Valencia with opportunities and they have not passed up many of those this season.

Valencia to score over 1 goal is available at 1.675* and could provide value given how ruthless their attack can be.

The away side will be eager to win the game but know that a draw would also be beneficial to their Champions League qualification chances. The Valencia +0.5 handicap could offer value at 1.781* as both outcomes would be seen as a positive result by the away side.

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