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Jan 3, 2019
Jan 3, 2019

La Liga preview: Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid

Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid odds

Inform your Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid prediction

Analysing the Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid stats

La Liga preview: Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid

With La Liga returning to action this week following its annual winter break, our highlight game sees Sevilla host fellow La Liga challengers Atletico Madrid. Looking for value in Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid odds? Read on to inform your Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid prediction.

A close look at the Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid odds

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Given their close proximity in the table, Sevilla sit third just two points behind Atletico in second place, it's unsurprising that the 1X2 odds imply the game will be incredibly close with no clear favourite.

Currently the odds imply Sevilla have around a 34% chances of winning the game, with Atletico also being given around a 37% chance of taking all three points.

Under 2 and 2.5 is also slighted favoured at 1.869* - this Total Goals figure suggests the number of goals in the game will be below the league average (the La Liga average is 2.52 goals per match this season).

Time: Sunday 6 January 15.15 UTC kick-off

Venue: Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium

Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid statistics

  • Sevilla goals for per game: 1.76
  • Sevilla goals against per game: 1
  • Sevilla points per game: 1.88
  • Atletico Madrid goals for per game: 1.47
  • Atletico Madrid goals against per game: 1.23
  • Atletico Madrid points per game: 2
  • Last eight games: Espanyol 3, Atletico Madrid, 4 Draw 1

Atletico Madrid vs. Espanyol predicted lineups

Sevilla predicted lineup:

3-5-2: Vaclik; Mercado, Carrico, Gomez; Navas, Mesa, Amadou Sarabia, Escudero; Ben Yedder, Silva

Following Sevilla’s last game, in which they needed a 91st minute equaliser to snatch a point away at struggling Leganes, the winter break has given manager Pablo Machín extra time to mull over his team selection for one his side’s biggest games of the season.

In terms of absentees through injury, defensive midfielder Maxime Gonalons remains side-lined with an ankle injury until at least mid-February, while right winger Aleix Vidal, who has missed the last six games with a muscle injury, is also unlikely to return. Danish centre back Simon Kjaer, who missed the Leganes game with another muscle injury, may still take part if required.

Meanwhile, playmaker Franco Vazquez, who was sent off in the Leganes fixture for verbally abusing the referee, is expected to miss between two and four games for the offence.

With the champions playing away to Getafe on Sunday, a game they’re expected to win, anything other than a victory for either side may represent valuable points dropped – and give Barca a more commanding lead at the top of the Spanish league

Atletico Madrid predicted lineup:

4-4-2: Oblak; Arias, Savic, Godin, Saul; Correa, Thomas, Hernandez, Koke; Kalinic, Griezmann

While the winter break hasn’t given Diego Simeone any new injury concerns, Atletico remain without striker Diego Costa as he continues his return from foot surgery in his native Brazil – with an expected return time of just under two months.

Elsewhere on the field, centre-backs Lucas Hernandez and Jose Gimenez are both expected to miss Sunday’s game, with knee and calf injuries respectively. Left winger Thomas Lemar, who has an ankle injury, and left-back Filipe Luis, who has a muscle injury, are both in a race against the clock to return in time.

Inform your Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid prediction

With La Liga returning from its annual winter break, both Sevilla and Atletico Madrid should return from the festive period feeling fresh and raring to go.

As the biggest game of week 18, and arguably the biggest domestic game either club has played this season so far, Sunday’s fixture can be viewed by both teams as a must-win if they want to keep the pressure on Barcelona at the top of the table.

With the champions playing away to Getafe on Sunday, a game they’re expected to win, anything other than a victory for either side may represent valuable points dropped – and give Barca a more commanding lead at the top of the Spanish league.

Sitting third with 32 points from 17 games, Sevilla trail Atletico by two points, who sit second with 34 points from the same amount of games. Barcelona remain at the top with 37 points.

As we approach the actual midway point of the season (game week 19), bettors should be advised to pay more close attention to recent form, rather than expected stats, when aiming to predict the result of matches, as at this stage of the season it’s a more reliable indicator of potential outcomes.

Stuttering in La Liga as of late, Sevilla have won just half of their last eight league games since losing 4-2 away at Barcelona at the end of October.

Drawing four from eight of their games, Sevilla needed a 91st minute equaliser to rescue a point in their last game away at Leganes – though did beat Girona 2-0 at home the week previous.

Having played eight games at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium so far, Los Hispalenses have won six, drawn once and lost just once – scoring 12 and conceding six in the process. Their last home defeat coming back in September was to Getafe.

Unfortunately for Sevilla fans, and an important consideration for bettors, Sevilla do have a habit of underperforming in the second half of a domestic season. Not once in the past four seasons have they improved their points per game ratio in the second half of the season, so, despite being somewhat of a surprise package so far this season in La Liga, Sevilla could find themselves in uncomfortably familiar surroundings come the end of the season.

As this period of underperformance is normally accompanied by success in cup competitions, recent seasons have shown that Sevilla’s relatively small squad and their continued involvement in the Europa League, could again make them susceptible to a dip in form.

Working with fewer first team players than most, yet much more accustomed to title challenges, Atletico entered in the winter break in good form – having not lost a La Liga game since a 2-0 away defeat to Celta Vigo on 1 September.

Winning five of their last eight La Liga games, and drawing three, Atletico’s away is relatively average in comparison to their home form.

Winning just twice from eight games away, Los Colchoneros have drawn five and lost once – scoring nine times but conceding a similar amount of eight – which may give Sevilla hope of securing a result on Sunday.

Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid: Where is the value?

Given the must-win nature of Sunday’s game for both teams, and with the fixture being a historically high-scoring fixture, the last eight games between the two have produced 24 goals, bettors could be attracted to odds of 2.030* for Over 2 and 2.5.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.

Odds subject to change

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