Aug 1, 2019
Aug 1, 2019

Outright Serie A betting: 2019/20 Serie A preview

Making 2019/20 Serie A predictions

2019/20 projected Serie A table

Who will win Serie A?

Outright Serie A betting: 2019/20 Serie A preview

With the start of the Serie A season fast approaching, bettors may look to the outright market to find value. Juventus have dominated Italian soccer and are looking for their ninth consecutive Scudetto. Can anyone deny them? Read on for some expert insight into the 2019/20 Serie A season.

2019/20 Serie A prediction: What do the odds say?

This is the predicted Serie A table based upon Pinnacle’s Serie A over/under points totals:

2019/20 Serie A projected points

Position

Team

18/19 points

19/20 projected points

1

Juventus

90

91.5

2

Inter Milan

69

78.5

3

Napoli

79

78.5

4

AC Milan

68

68.5

5

Roma

66

67.5

6

Lazio

59

65.5

This is the points change from 2018/19 to 2019/20 implied by Pinnacle’s projected point totals:

Serie A Projected Points change

Team

Points change

Juventus

+0.5

Inter Milan

+9.5

Napoli

-0.5

AC Milan

+0.5

Roma

+1.5

Lazio

+6.5

Outright Serie A betting: Who will win the Serie A title?

Juventus (1.448*)

Yet again, the Bianconeri are odds on favourites to claim an unprecedented ninth successive league title, and with Pinnacle projecting they have a 69% chance of doing so, it would be tough to bet against them.

Juventus’ performance last season was staggeringly consistent, going undefeated right up until March 17 by which point the title was pretty much secured. Making a blistering start, Juve won their opening eight games in a row, including a 3-1 victory over title rivals Napoli in that run.

The much-anticipated arrival of Cristiano Ronaldo had the desired effect, as the five-time Balon d’or winner was Juve’s top scorer last season, with 21 goals and eight assists in 31 Serie A games.

Strengthening an already solid team in the form of Matthijs De Ligt, Luca Pellegrini, Aaron Ramsey, Adrien Rabiot and the return of the iconic Gianluigi Buffon to add competition in the goalkeeping position – Juventus have two first team options in every area of the pitch.

It must be mentioned however, that Juve performed above and beyond expectations statistically last season, gaining an astonishing 19 more points than forecasted as well as overperforming their xG and XGA.

The teams around Juventus will be hoping against a repeat overperformance from the old lady, especially considering that both Napoli and Inter had a higher xPTS than Juve last season.

As well as this, Juve’s obsession with capturing their first Champions League trophy since 1996 could result in them putting less focus on their league form.

It’s also worth noting former Napoli manager Maurizzio Sarri is yet to win a Serie A title and his Juventus side may need time to adapt to his favoured 4-3-3 system.

Inter Milan (5.300*)

Inter Milan endured a season of drama last year, with controversy surrounding their former captain Mauro Icardi threatening to de-rail their season.

They struggled offensively as a result and only narrowly-secured Champions league football by a single point ahead of arch-rival’s AC Milan.

However, Inter have since appointed former Juventus and Chelsea manager Antonio Conte, who boasts three Serie A titles and one Premier League title to his name - an upgrade on former manager Luciano Spalletti.

The Nerazzurri have also recruited well in the transfer market, strengthening their midfield with the signings of Stefano Sensi and Nicolo Barella, as well as defensively with the astute signing of Diego Godin at centre-back and Valentino Lazaro in the problematic right-wing back position.

The key to Inter’s potential success this season, however, will most likely be in the final third.

With Icardi likely to depart, Inter will be looking to recruit another striker to their ranks, with Romelu Lukaku and Edin Dzeko linked in recent weeks.

Lautaro Martinez was only able to notch six goals in 27 Serie A appearances, but at the age of 21 in his first season in European soccer and competing with Mauro Icardi – he can be afforded time to settle in, and will be hoping to at least reach double figures this upcoming campaign.

Inter underperformed last season, but under new management and renewed harmony around the club, it would be unwise to discount the Nerazzurri from the title race.

Napoli (6.540*)

Perennial contenders Napoli are in the mix yet again and were Juventus’ closest challengers last season - albeit from a distance, finishing 11 points behind.

After making the transition from Maurizio Sarri to Carlo Ancelotti, Napoli look set to challenge once again, and have strengthened their defence with the signing of Kostas Manloas from Roma to form possibly one of the Serie A’s best centre-back partnerships alongside Kalidou Kouilbaily – who is widely considered one of the best centre backs in the world.

Despite outperforming their xPTS last season, Napoli never really threatened to knock Juve off top spot due to their northern rivals having had such an incredible and overperforming campaign.

Arkadiusz Milik’s enjoyed his first major injury-free season since joining over three years ago, and returned an impressive 17 goals, one ahead of Dries Mertens, with the latter also registering 10 assists.

Milik, Mertens and Insigne will be looked upon once again to carry the attacking threat of the Partenoepi, who with a stronger backline, could stake a viable claim to Serie A glory.

AC Milan (14.910*)

After an average start to last season, AC Milan hit a great run of form between December and March, coinciding with the signing of Krystof Piatek in January, and went 10 games unbeaten.

The Derby della Madonnina defeat in mid-march was a significant blow, and resulted in two wins in their next eight games - surrendering the initiative to fellow Champions League chasers Atalanta.

Missing out on the top four by one point, AC Milan’s primary objective this season will be to finally make a return to the Champions League, and they will be banking on 18 goal Piatek to replicate or better his first season in Serie A.

Juve’s obsession with capturing their first Champions League trophy since 1996 could result in them putting less focus on their league form

As well as Piatek, Suso could also be pivotal to their success, with the Spaniard registering seven goals and 10 assists in Serie A last season from wide areas.

Roma (24.080*)

It’s been a summer of upheaval for Roma after a very disappointing 2019/20 season, with a managerial change, boardroom changes, and key arrivals and departures in the playing squad.

Paulo Fonseca has replaced Eusebio De Francesco as head coach, whilst veteran captain Daniele De Rossi has moved on along with Kostas Manolas, Luca Pellegrini, and Stephen El Shaarawy – with all four players playing a key role in Roma’s team in recent seasons.

Pau Lopez has been recruited in goal, Leonardo Spinazzola and Gianluca Mancini have reenforced the defence as well as Jordan Veretout and Amadou Diawara being added to the heart of midfield to form a new look Roma 11.

Roma certainly unperformed last season after consecutive top three finishes in recent years, and will hope the defensive reinforcements will improve their backline, as they had the worst record in terms of goals conceded in the top eight last year.

Lazio (36.680*)

Lazio endured a disappointing season by their standards, finishing in eighth place – their lowest league position since the 2015-16 season.

The over-reliance on Ciro Immobile to propel them up the table with his goals in recent seasons may have been their undoing, as the Italian could only manage 15 goals in 36 games this season, after scoring 29 in 33 and 23 in 36 the last two seasons prior.

No other Lazio player could reach double figures in goals, with Felipe Caicedo (eight goals) the next best in terms of scoring.

It’s no surprise they underperformed in expected goals and points as a result. Intriguingly, Lazio scored one more goal than AC Milan and one less than Inter Milan last season, who finished in fifth and fourth place.

Should Lazio ease the scoring burden on Immobile and have other players contributing goals like Luis Alberto, Joaquin Correa and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (if he remains at Lazio this season), the Biancocelesti could have a much better season in 2019-20.

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Odds subject to change

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