Mid-table Torino host second place Napoli in the highlight Serie A match of the week. After a great start to the season Napoli have won only one point out of the last six available. Will Torino profit from their visitor’s poor form and improve upon their current league position? Read on to find out if there is value on offer in the Torino vs. Napoli odds.
Live Torino vs. Napoli odds
Napoli aim to recover their form
Napoli have had some poor recent results of late. The club’s 26 game unbeaten Serie A run came to an end against title rivals Juventus. After last weekend’s 0-0 draw at home to Fiorentina the usually strong Napoli attack has now failed to score in their last two Serie A games.
Napoli’s demanding schedule may have negatively affected the team during this recent run of poor results. A lack of rotation has meant Napoli’s first choice team has played in the majority of their 24 matches across all competitions this season.
Napoli’s defence remains the joint best in Serie A this season, they have only conceded two goals in their last five Serie A matches.
Torino have played a full six games less than Napoli this season and will look to take advantage of any fitness issues present in the Napoli side. Napoli will still be without left-back Faouzi Ghoulam whilst winger Lorenzo Insigne may be unavailable for the game in Turin.
Despite their recent results, Napoli still score an average of more than two goals per game in Serie A and have only lost once in the league this season. Torino are unbeaten in their last five league games and achieved a strong 3-1 win against fifth placed Lazio in their last match.
Torino have a mixed record against the top sides in Serie A this season. They will need to replicate their strong performances from the win against Lazio and draw at league leaders Inter Milan and avoid a repeat of the 4-0 loss to Juventus.
Can Torino find a way through Napoli’s defence?
Despite their recent struggles in attack, Napoli’s defence remains the joint best in Serie A this season. They have only conceded two goals in their last five Serie A matches. This defensive strength will be important as Napoli try to revive their title aspirations. If Napoli’s attack continues to find scoring difficult then the result of the match could depend upon whether Torino can find a way past Pepe Reina in the Napoli goal.
Torino’s attack has managed a return of 22 goals from their 16 games this season and forward Andrea Bellotti will hope to add to his three Serie A goals. Belotti scored 26 league goals last season but the Italian international has been less effective this season. His expected goals per 90 minutes played has fallen from 0.61 last season to 0.38 this term.
Torino have scored 10 fewer goals this season than they had scored at this stage in 2016/17. Torino may have over performed last season, scoring 71 league goals despite an expected goals total of 58.18. This season Torino have scored at a rate more in line with their total expected goals of 18.57. Unless Belotti and the Torino attack can rediscover their 2016/17 form they may struggle to create chances against Napoli.
Torino vs. Napoli odds: Where is the value?
Last season’s matches between these two sides were high scoring encounters. Thirteen goals were scored across both fixtures with Napoli scoring 10 to Torino’s three. This week’s game, however, could be a low scoring encounter.
Torino may have over performed last season, scoring 71 league goals despite an expected goals total of 58.18.
After a strong start, Napoli’s attack has suffered from injuries and fatigue. Torino’s own attack has been unable to match their numbers from last season and is currently only the tenth highest scoring side in Serie A. This, in combination with Napoli’s struggles in attack, may lead to a low scoring game so under 3 goals to be scored at 1.757* could offer value to bettors.
Whilst Napoli have struggled in recent weeks, they have only lost just one of their last 28 Serie A games. They will need a win at Torino maintain their title challenge. Napoli have also won eight of the last nine games between the two sides.
Crucially Napoli will have a six day break between games so should be able to field the best team they have available (although their long-term injury concerns will still be a worry). Recent results do not reflect the quality of this Napoli team so a bet on them to win will certainly be a popular choice.