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Two weeks ago
Sep 7, 2017

Serie A preview: Lazio vs. AC Milan

Live Lazio vs. AC Milan odds

How important is a good start?

Is this a new era for AC Milan?

Serie A preview: Lazio vs. AC Milan

The Serie A season is only two games old but the teams who regularly feature at the top of the table are already coming to the fore. Two of those teams, Lazio and AC Milan, meet for this week’s highlight fixture. Can AC Milan continue their 100% start? Read on for some expert betting insight.

Live Lazio vs. AC Milan odds

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A summer of ins and outs

Although Premier League spending and Neymar’s world-record move to PSG dominated the world of soccer transfers this summer, AC Milan were one of the most active teams in Europe when it comes to purchasing new players.

In the last 12 league matches between Lazio and AC Milan both sides have won four and there has been four draws.

I Rossoneri were fourth on the list of biggest-spending clubs in the top five leagues in European soccer (€190.5m) and second when it comes to net spend (€178.3m). Lazio, by contrast, made the tenth-highest net profit - spending just €27.9m compared to the €69.6m they received for selling players.

The new look AC Milan side has made a good start to this Serie A season but only time will tell whether or not the investment is worthwhile. Saturday’s trip to the Stadio Olimpico represents Vincenzo Montella’s first real test this season. Should AC Milan win their first three games of the season (for the first time since 2006/07), their chances in the outright Serie A betting will certainly receive a boost.

The importance of a good start

Similarly to the Premier League, the first six games of the Serie A season are very important. There’s still plenty of time to make up for poor results but as Juventus have shown in the last few seasons, establishing an early lead makes it difficult for your opponents to close the gap.

Lazio would have hoped a dramatic 3-2 win over Juventus in the Supercoppa Italiana would have stood them in good stead for the start of the new season. This wasn’t the case as they started with a 0-0 draw at home to SPAL and a scrappy 2-1 win away at Chievo. I Biancocelesti’s pre-season success is already long forgotten and they already have a two point gap to make up on their rivals. 

AC Milan, on the other hand, have dominated both their opening fixtures - a 3-0 win over Crotone and a 2-1 win against Cagliari. Bettors would expect new signings to take a while to bed in but an average of 62% possession, 17 shots per game and 88% pass accuracy certainly looks promising.

A new era for AC Milan?

The 18-time Serie A champions and seven-time Champions League winners were previously one of the most feared clubs in Europe - the likes of Baresi, Maldini, Nesta, Cafu, Rui Costa, Pirlo, Seedorf, Shevchenko and Inzaghi are just a few names that made I Rossoneri a formidable force between the 1990’s and mid-2000’s. 

I Rossoneri were fourth on the list of biggest-spending clubs in the top five leagues in European soccer (€190.5m) and second when it comes to net spend (€178.3m).

However, many of those star players retired or left and Milan’s dominance eroded away by 2012/13. Since then, last season’s sixth-placed finish is the best they have managed.

Surprisingly, it is the youth prospects - not the big money signings - that have caught the eye so far this season. Suso, who led the league for players aged under 23 last season in assists (9) and chance creation (62), already has two goals and two assists while 19-year-old Patrick Cutrone has managed two goals and an assist in the first two games.

Lazio vs. AC Milan betting: Where is the value?

In addition to the odds, recent matches between the two sides suggest Lazio and AC Milan are very evenly matched - in the last 12 league matches both sides have won four and there has been four draws. That said, it is I Rossoneri who have enjoyed success recently, going unbeaten in the last four with two wins and two draws.

Despite the addition of new attacking options, AC Milan are likely to focus on a defensive approach away from home on Saturday. Although an away win or draw will appeal to a lot of bettors, under 2.5 and 3 goals at 1.925* could be the most sensible bet to make.

Alternatively, given both sides’ poor disciplinary record last season (Lazio picking up 2.47 cards per game and AC Milan 2.45) cards betting could prove to be a worthwhile option.

Odds subject to change

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Benjamin studied English with Creative Writing (BA) before pursuing a career that combined his love of sport and fascination with betting. An avid fan of numerous sports, his writing now covers anything from in-depth major sporting event previews, to examining betting trends and techniques.

By Benjamin Cronin

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