Nov 24, 2017
Nov 24, 2017

Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Torino

Does either side have a star player?

Will the draw specialists get another draw?

What do the stats tell us about AC Milan's season so far?

Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Torino

Two-thirds of the Serie A season remain, but the gap between the top six and the rest of the table already looks too big to close. Two of the chasing pack, AC Milan and Torino, meet in the highlight fixture for this weekend. Their season might be over, but is there value in the AC Milan vs. Torino odds? Read on to find out.

Live AC Milan vs. Torino odds

Fighting for Europa League qualification

Despite only being 13 games into a 38 game season, a place in the top four (let alone winning the league) seems an insurmountable task for AC Milan and Torino. Torino wouldn’t have had high expectations for this year after a ninth-placed finish in 2016/17 but after a net spend of €178.3m in the summer, AC Milan will certainly be disappointed with their start.

An analysis of past performances shows that AC Milan’s newly assembled squad may be doing better than the bare form suggests.

It should be said that all six of AC Milan’s losses this season have been to the teams directly above them in the table (Sampdoria, Lazio, Roma, Juventus, Inter Milan and Napoli). However, if I Rossoneri have aspirations of winning their first league title since 2010/11, those are exactly the kind of games they need to be winning.

Torino, on the other hand, will be pleased with the fact that they have only lost three of their opening 13 games this season. That said, they will have been disappointed with draws at Verona and Crotone, missing out on four points that would put them to within touching distance of Sampdoria in sixth.

AC Milan vs. Torino betting: A team effort

In addition to the disparity in points between themselves and the teams above them in the league, another major difference between Torino, AC Milan and the elite Serie A teams is the lack of a star player. Circo Immobile and Mauro Icardi are invaluable to their respective teams, whereas Torino and AC Milan seem to rely on contributions throughout the team.

Iago Falque’s five goals and one assist equate to a 33% contribution to Torino’s goals scored, while Suso’s five goals and three assists means he contributes to 42% of AC Milan’s goals. These figures may seem high but the contribution from Immobile (65%) and Icardi (56%) highlights the lack of a spearhead in terms of attacking threat for Torino and AC Milan.

Of course, a reliance on individual players can be seen as a negative but in such a low scoring sport it is important to have someone who consistently “makes a difference” in a game.

No draw for the draw specialists?

Although not losing games will please Torino’s manager Sinisa Mihajlovic, the number of draws will be cause for concern. No Serie A side has drawn as many games as I Granata this season (six) and only two teams in Europe’s top five leagues have more draws (Wolfsburg and Angers, both eight). 

AC Milan are at the opposite end of the spectrum with only one draw from 13 games. Four of their six defeats have been wider than a single goal margin, highlighting that Vincenzo Montella doesn’t play safe once his side are behind (leaving more space at the back and leaving them susceptible to conceding more).

AC Milan vs. Torino odds: Where is the value?

AC Milan’s short price ahead of this weekend’s fixture is understandable given Torino’s struggles on the road of late (they haven’t won in their last four games away from home). However, a closer look at the stats clarify why bettors might have so much confidence in AC Milan.

No Serie A side has drawn as many games as I Granata this season (six) and only two teams in Europe’s top five leagues have more draws.

I Rossoneri have dominated games this season with an average of 55.2% possession (the third highest in the league) and an average pass success rate of 85.4% (again, third highest in the league). While their 16.3 shots per game is impressive, over half of those (8.8) have been taken from outside the box. 

Although the majority of their shots are taken from distance, AC Milan still have a deficit of 2.67 in terms of their expected goals this season, showing that their dominance in games has created good goal-scoring opportunities that haven’t been converted - they have also conceded 6 more goals than their expected goals stats suggest.

An analysis of past performances shows that AC Milan’s newly assembled squad may be doing better than the bare form suggests. If bettors look beyond previous results, both the AC Milan -1 handicap (2.350*) and over 2.5 and 3 goals (1.877) will be a popular choice.

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