Feb 26, 2020
Feb 26, 2020

Russian Premier League preview: Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Moscow

Zenit Saint Petersburg vs. Lokomotiv Moscow odds

Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Moscow: preview and predicted lineups

Zenit and Lokomotiv Moscow stats

Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Moscow: Where is the value?

Russian Premier League preview: Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Moscow

The Russian Premier League returns from its winter break with a big match between defending champions and league leaders Zenit Saint Petersburg and a Lokomotiv Moscow team whose title ambitions have been severely damaged by a run of one win in six games. With an exciting clash between first and fifth in store, who will take the three points? Read on to inform your Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Moscow predictions.

Date and time: Saturday February 29, 16:00 (UTC)

Venue: Gazprom Arena

Last meeting: Lokomotiv Moscow 1 (Krychowiak 48’) – Zenit Saint Petersburg 0 [Russian Premier League, September 28 2019]

Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Moscow: Odds at a glance

Zenit are firm favourites at 1.632*, equating to an approximate 59% chance of victory, whereas Lokomotiv are 6.390* underdogs, which translates to just over a 15% chance. The market rates a draw as just over a 26% possibility and is available at 3.670*.

The Over/Under Goals is set at 2.5, with 2.200* for over and 1.704* for under. Zenit are 1.625* to win with a -0.5 handicap, whereas Lokomotiv are available at 2.370* with a +0.5 handicap.

Zenit vs. Lokomotiv: League stats

Zenit Saint Petersburg

Team

Lokomotiv Moscow

1st (45 points)

Position

5th (34 points)

DWWWW

Form

DDWLL

Artem Dzyuba (11)

Top scorer

Gregorz Krychowiak (8)

Artem Dzyuba (9)

Most assists

Fyodor Smolov (3)

1.95

Goals scored per game

1.47

2.11

xG per game

1.69

0.47

Goals conceded per game

1.26

0.70

xGA per game

1.10

2.37

Points per game

1.79

2.26

xPTS per game

1.71

After a nervy start to the season which witnessed them sitting in fifth after seven games, Zenit have rediscovered their lethal form which led them to last season’s title with ten wins in their last 12 matches. They have established a ten-point lead at the peak of Russia’s top flight, largely courtesy of attacking talisman Artem Dzyuba, who leads the league for both goals and assists. However, they will be unable to call on their key man on the night, as he is set to miss the match through injury.

Lokomotiv were even on points with Zenit and actually topped the table after 13 rounds, but a crushing 3-0 home defeat against city rivals Spartak in October has tailspinned their form. They have since amassed just five points from as many games, and suffered a humiliating 4-0 loss to Arsenal Tula in their final runout before the winter break.

Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Moscow: Potential lineups

Zenit Saint Petersburg (4-4-2): Lunev; Douglas Santos, Ivanovic, Rakitskiy, Karavayev; Sutormin, Barrios, Ozdoev, Zhirkov; Driussi, Amzoun.

Lokomotiv Moscow (4-2-3-1): Guilherme; Zhivoglyadov, Corluka, Howedes, Ignatjev; Krychowiak, Barinov; Zhemaletdinov, Cerqueira, Joao Mario; Eder.

Zenit have been landed a large injury blow with top scorer Artem Dzyuba sidelined. He will be joined in the physio's room by young defender Emmanuel Mammana, who is continuing his ongoing recovery from cruciate ligament damage. The league leaders did not make any significant winter signings, although winger Emiliano Rigoni has returned to the club after his loan at Sampdoria was terminated early.

Lokomotiv will be without regular starting left back Maciej Rybus, who is suspended, and attacking midfielder Anton Miranchuk, who is sidelined with a heel injury. However, arguably their most notable absentee will be striker Fyodor Smolov, who joined Celta Vigo on loan at the end of January.

Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Moscow: Where is the value?

Zenit’s status as favourite points to the fact that they are in better form, manager Sergei Semak has virtually a full complement of players available and it isn’t difficult to argue that they are best team in the league. Indeed, aside from sitting in first, they have scored the most goals (37), conceded the fewest (9) and top the division’s expected points table by a 12.5-point margin.

Lokomotiv’s goal-shy attack will face a Zenit defence who have amassed ten clean sheets in 19 league matches.

While they may not have played a competitive match at the Gazprom Arena since December 6, Zenit also possess the league’s best home record and are undefeated when hosting this season. In their six home wins, four were by a margin of at least two goals, and Semak’s side to win with a -1.5 handicap is 3.070*.

Their strong form can be partially attributed to a tendency to earn early leads in matches, as reflected by the fact that in all but one of their last seven league victories they were winning at half-time. Zenit are favoured at 2.330* to win the first half Money Line, whilst the draw is a slightly shorter 2.210* for those feel the home team may require longer to take control.

Zenit have averaged just under 2.5 goals per home league game this season and netted 16 in their last five, a figure boosted by a 6-1 thrashing of third-placed Rostov. They also notched up at least three goals in eight of their ten winter break friendlies, and are available at 1.943* to score over 1.5 goals on the night.

However, Lokomotiv can justify suggesting that they will be at least reasonably formidable opposition. Aside from the fact that they defeated Zenit 1-0 in their last meeting courtesy of a long-range Gregorz Krychowiak strike, Yury Semin’s team can boast the league’s second best away record, having won six and lost just two of their ten away league matches this season.

All but one of those six away victories were by a solitary goal, and Lokomotiv are 6.320* to win with a -0.5 handicap for those confident they will repeat the feat. However, it is worth noting that all of the points they have dropped on the road were against teams currently in the top half and they have only kept two clean sheets away from home.

Lokomotiv’s chances of success depend on how adeptly their goal-shy attack overcomes a strong Zenit defence who have amassed ten clean sheets in 19 league matches. Smolov and Miranchuk will be big misses while Eder, who looks set to start upfront, has netted just four goals in 13 league appearances.

Expect a counter-focused approach from Lokomotiv featuring a reliance on set pieces and long shots. Notably, they average the highest shots from outside the box (8.1) and shots from set pieces (3.9) per game in the league. Should this gameplan prove effective a tight and low-scoring affair is a distinct possibility, with under 1.5 goals available at 3.120*.

You can check out all of the latest odds and markets for Zenit Saint Petersburg vs. Lokomotiv Moscow here.

Odds subject to change

Betting Resources - Empowering your betting

Pinnacle’s Betting Resources is one of the most comprehensive collections of expert betting advice anywhere online. Catering to all experience levels our aim is simply to empower bettors to become more knowledgeable.