This week’s highlight fixture in Serie A is the Derby del Sole, as Roma face Napoli. Can Roma keep their Champions League hopes alive? Will Napoli consolidate their position as runners-up? Read on to inform your Roma vs. Napoli prediction.
Live Roma vs Napoli odds
Napoli come into the match as slight favourites (around 42% chance) against an injury-hit Roma. The Over/Under market marginally points towards a low-scoring contest with under 2.5 and 3 currently priced at 1.909*.
Date – Sunday March 31
Time – 13:00 UTC
Venue – Stadio Olimpico
Roma vs. Napoli predicted lineups
Roma predicted lineup
4-2-3-1 – Olsen (GK), Karsdorp, Fazio, Manolas, Santon, N’Zonzi, Cristante, Perotti, Zaniolo, El Shaarawy, Dzeko
Roma have an extended injury list that leaves them without Cengiz Under, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Javier Pastore, Alessandro Florenzi, and Alexsandr Kolarov for the game against Napoli.
Manolas however should go from injury to the heart of the defence after missing the game against SPAL prior to the international break, whilst Rick Karsdorp and Diego Perotti should also come into the side to replace Juan Jesus and Justin Kluivert.
Patrick Schick will also be hoping to keep his place but looks likely to lose the central striker role to Edin Dzeko.
Napoli predicted lineup
4-4-2 – Meret (GK), Malcuit, Maksimovic, Koulibaly, Goulham, Callejon, Allan, Ruiz, Zielinski, Mertens, Milik.
Napoli are without captain Lorenzo Insigne as well as Amadou Diawara, Raul Albiol, and Vlad Chiriches. David Ospina has recovered from a concussion but should lose his place regardless to Alex Meret between the sticks. Elseid Hysaj could displace either full back against Roma, as Ancelotti appears to favour him in the ‘big’ games.
Roma vs. Napoli Stat Pack
Inform your Roma vs. Napoli prediction
Roma vs. Napoli, known as the Derby del Sole, (The Derby of the Sun) is one of the most iconic matches in Italian soccer and this weekend’s clash is sure to be another intriguing chapter in this rivalry.
Roma know a defeat would seriously harm their Champions League chances next season, with Atalanta and Lazio behind them breathing down their necks and the two Milanese clubs threatening to pull away from the rest of the pack in third and fourth respectively.
Roma’s sole focus this season is to secure a top four finish or risk missing out on the Champions League for the first time in five seasons
Napoli meanwhile find themselves in the peculiar position, (as they have done for the majority of the season), of being too far away from Juventus (15 points) to catch them, but also comfortably ahead of third place by seven points.
The Partenopei’s form has been inconsistent as of late, winning just two of their last six fixtures (P6, W2, D3, L1), and have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three games, after going five games without conceding.
Injuries have taken a toll on both sides, with Napoli missing commanding central defender Raul Albiol and their talisman captain Lorenzo Insigne, who has nine goals and six assists in Serie A.
Conversely, Roma have been without a commanding centre back of their own in the form of the reliable Greek defender Kostas Manolas as well as the attacking talents of Alessandro Florenzi and Aleksandr Kolarov in wide areas, with the experienced Kolarov being Roma’s second top scorer in Serie A this season with seven goals, just two behind El Shaawary.
The last time these two sides met earlier in the season, Napoli snatched a last minute draw, continuing their downward trend in this derby fixture, having only registered two victories in their last eight league matches against the Giallorossi (P8, W2, D2, L4).
Napoli will be hoping the form of Arkadisus Milik will help buck that trend on Sunday, with the Poland international enjoying his best and longest injury-free season, scoring 15 goals in 25 league appearances, including three in his last four games.
Usually a prolific goal scorer in Italy, Edin Dzeko has struggled this season, with just seven goals this term, after scoring 16 last season and 29 the season before that.
New Roma boss Claudio Ranieri’s switch to a 4-4-2 last time out against SPAL, to accommodate both Dzeko and young striking protégé Patrick Schick, proved to be a misstep. Neither found the back of the net as Roma lost 2-1 to continue their disappointing domestic campaign that saw Eusebio de Francesco lose his job as manager.
Having also been knocked out of the Champions League to Porto, Roma’s sole focus this season is to secure a top four finish or risk missing out on the Champions League for the first time in five seasons.
Napoli know it would take a monumental collapse by Juventus in order to catch them and appear comfortable where they are currently positioned in the runners up slot, however that being said, a loss in Rome coupled with a win by either Milan club could the pressure on them securing second place.
Roma vs Napoli: Where is the value?
As it’s a derby fixture, the most straightforward assumption to make would be that there will be an increase in the number of yellow cards due to the intensity and passion running high amongst the players.
Napoli have been shown three straight red cards this season, the joint highest in Serie A with Cagliari and Sassuolo, with no Roma players making any straight red cards offences. Only twice has a Roma player has received two yellows and been given his marching orders.
With Napoli averaging 1.86 goals per game, bettors may look to the Totals market for value, with Napoli over 1.5 Total Goals currently priced at 2.100*.
Contrary to the odds marginally suggesting a low-scoring game, both teams have been efficient in attack, scoring 53 goals each in Serie A (joint third best).
What’s more, both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three matches, with Roma not keeping a clean sheet in their last five games, which could indicate the possibility of a high-scoring game and bettors can get Over 2.75 goals currently at 2.040*.