This week’s highlight fixture in Serie A sees two of Italy’s most successful clubs come together, as Roma take on Inter Milan. Can Roma get back in the race for a top four finish? Will Inter Milan strengthen their top three position? Read on to inform your Roma vs. Inter Milan prediction.
Live Roma vs. Inter Milan odds
The 1X2 odds suggest this will be a very tight contest with Roma coming into the game as marginal favourites with a 40% chance of securing a home win. The Over/Under total is set at 2.5 and 3, with the the odds suggesting a high scoring contest with Over odds of 1.847*.
Date – Sunday December 2
Time – 18:30 UTC
Venue – Stadio Olimpico
Roma vs. Inter Milan predicted line-ups
Roma predicted line-up
4-2-3-1 – Olsen (GK), Florenzi, Manolas, Fazio, Kolarov; Nzonzi, Cristante, Under, Pellegrini, Kluivert, Schick
Edin Dzeko and Stephan El Shaarawy are likely to miss the game through injury which will be a big low to Roma, with youngsters Justin Kluivert and Patrik Schick expected to deputise. Robin Olsen and Lorenzo Pellegrini who picked up a knocks in the defeat to Udinese last time out should recover in time for the clash against Inter. Diego Perotti, Javier Pastore and captain Daniele De Rossi are also all expected to miss the game however, with calf and knee injuries.
Inter Milan predicted line-up
4-2-3-1 – Handanovic (GK), Asamoah, Skrinirar, de Vrij, Vrsaljko, Gagliardini, Brozovic, Perisic, Valero, Politano, Icardi
Croatian right back Sime Vrsjalko should be available after his injury which ruled him out out of the last game whilst captain Mauro Icardi should also return to the starting line-up. After Keita Balde’s fine two goal haul against Frosinone last time out, Ivan Perisic and Marco Politano may have their work cut out to get back in the team, whilst young Argetine striker Radja Nainggolan picked up a knock against Tottenham in midweek and looks a doubt to be involved from the start, with Borja Valero expected to come in for the Belgian. Lautaro Martinez will be pushing to start up top alongside his countryman.
Roma vs. Inter Milan statistics
• Inter Milan have one win in their last five games against Roma (W1, D2, L2)
• There have been three draws in the last 10 league meetings between the two teams
• Both teams have scored in eight of the last 10 league meetings
• There have been Over 2.5 goals in three of the last five league meetings
• Roma failed to beat Inter last season, drawing 1-1 away and losing 3-1 at home
• Roma have an xG per game of 1.83 and an xGA per game of 1.27
• Inter Milan have an xG per game of 1.63 and an xGA per game of 1.09
Inform your Roma vs. Inter Milan prediction
An out of form Roma welcome Inter Milan, who had been on a very impressive run of form themselves, to the Stadio Olimpico in what should be an intriguing contest between two of Italy’s traditional top teams.
Roma come into the game with just one win in their last five Serie A matches whilst Inter Milan, who were on a seven game win streak before losing to Atalanta before the international break, will be looking to make it nine wins in their last ten games come Sunday.
It appears Roma’s league form has suffered at the expense of their impressive Champions League form, where they look set to qualify from their group alongside Real Madrid. The majority of their league troubles have come on the road this season, with just two wins from seven - their home form is a lot better (suffering just one defeat at the Olimpico thus far).
Although uncharacteristic, Roma are performing almost exactly as their expectated output suggest this season, scoring one less than their expected goals and conceding the same as projected.
Conversely, Inter Milan have been defying both their expected goals for and against so far, scoring four more and conceding four less then forecasted. Bettors should be wary that Inter’s luck in this department may run out soon, perhaps at the hands of Roma this Sunday.
Injuries and a lack of rotation may also prove to be decisive, especially after both club’s midweek excursions in the Champions League
Both teams have utilised their quad depth so far, with 13 different scorers for Roma and 12 different scorers for Inter. Despite the depth, the contrasting league form of both clubs’ star strikers is a cause for major concern for the Giallorossi.
Edin Dzeko, comfortably Roma’s top scorer last season, has been struggling in Serie A this season, with a return of two goals in 12 games. Instead, it’s been Stephan El Shaarawy, with five goals in 12 games, who has been Roma’s top scorer in the league. With both expeted to miss the game on Sunday, the burden may fall on young Croatian Patrik Schick to lead the line for Roma and even younger Dutch winger Justin Kluivert to be an attacking threat out wide.
Mauro Icardi on the other hand has been in great form for the Nerazzurri, scoring seven and assisting two in 10 starts in Serie A and he will look to carry this good form into Sunday’s clash.
Injuries and a lack of rotation may also prove to be decisive, especially after both club’s midweek excursions in the Champions League, Roma may be feeling the fatigue more than their Milanese counterparts as they are also without key men in defensive and attacking midfield positions in the form of De Rossi, Pastore and Perotti.
Roma vs. Inter Milan: Where is the Value?
Bettors could look to the Over/Under market to find value given the fact that the last five league games have had at least two goals, with odds of Over 2.5 currently priced at 1.680*.
Moreover, the attacking proficiency of both clubs as well as their apparent defensive frailties may lead bettors to opt for an even higher scoring contest with odds of Over 3 priced at 2.130*.
There has been a distinct lack of draws between the two clubs recently, but given how closely the two teams are matched up odds wise, bettors may look to betting on the draw at 3.640* for value.
Never miss a Serie A preview! Follow Pinnacle on Twitter or read our betting advice.