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Jan 30, 2019
Jan 30, 2019

Serie A Preview: Roma vs. AC Milan

Roma vs. AC Milan odds

Roma vs. AC Milan Statistics

Inform your Roma vs. AC Milan prediction

Roma vs. AC Milan: Where is the value?

Serie A Preview: Roma vs. AC Milan

This week’s highlight fixture in Serie A sees two sides chasing Champions League qualification, as Roma take on AC Milan. Will AC Milan strengthen their top four chances? Can Roma overtake AC Milan into the Champions League places? Read on to inform your Roma vs AC Milan prediction.

Roma vs. AC Milan odds*

Roma vs. AC Milan odds*

-

1X2

Handicap

Total

AS Roma

2.179

0 and -0.5    1.862

Over 2.5 and 3

Under 2.5 and 3

1.97

1.934

AC Milan

3.66

0 and +0.5    2.060

-

-

Draw

3.42

-

-

-

The Money Line odds suggest this will be a close contest, with Roma coming in as slight favourites with a 48% chance of securing a home win. The Over/Under total is set at 2.5 and 3, with the odds marginally suggesting a low scoring contest with Under odds of 1.925*.

Date – Sunday February 3

Time – 18:30 UTC

Venue – Stadio Olimpico

Roma vs. AC Milan predicted line-ups

Roma predicted lineup

4-2-3-1 – Olsen, Florenzi, Manolas, Fazio, Kolarov, Cristante, N’Zonzi, Zaniolo, Pellegrini, El Shaawaray, Dzeko

Diego Perotti, Cengiz Under and Juan Jesus continue to miss out through injury, whilst Florenzi and Fazio are likely to come into the side ahead of Rick Karsdorp and Ivan Marcano at full back and centre back respectively.

Justin Kluivert and Daniele De Rossi will be pushing for starts in midfield whilst young Patrick Schick will likely have to start the game from the bench once more.

AC Milan predicted lineup

4-3-3 – Donnarumma (GK), Calabria, Romagnoli, Mussachio, Rodriguez, Bakayoko, Kessie, Paqueta, Suso, Piatek, Calhonoglu

Giacomo Bonaventura, Lucas Biglia, and Mattia Caldara remain long-term absentees - whilst Frank Kessie returns from suspension to slot straight back into the side.

New signing Krzysztof Piatek should come in for his first league start after making a 10-minute cameo from the bench last week, relegating Patrick Cutrone to the bench.

Roma vs. AC Milan Statistics

• There has been one draw in the last eight meetings between the two sides

• AC Milan will be looking to beat Roma twice in the same season since 2011-12

• AC Milan’s last home win against Roma was in 2016

• Roma have won three of the last five meetings against AC Milan

• There have been Over 2.5 goals in four of the last five Serie A games between the two sides

• Roma have an xG per game of 1.92 and an xGA of 1.44

• AC Milan have an xG per game of 1.40 and an xGA of 0.94

Inform your Roma vs. AC Milan prediction

It appears that the race to finish in a Champions League position come the end of the season is going to go right down to the final few weeks, with five teams all staking a viable claim to finish in the fourth and final spot – including Roma and AC Milan.

The last meeting between the two sides on Gameweek 2 of the season saw AC Milan snatch a 2-1 victory courtesy of a Patrick Cutrone injury time winner to send the Rossoneri faithful wild.

Sunday’s fixture should be yet another compelling contest, as AC Milan will be desperate to strengthen their top four hopes with a win, or at least a draw away from home while Roma have the opportunity to leapfrog Milan with a home victory.

A draw would allow one of Sampdoria, Atalanta, or Lazio to potentially move above both of them.

The departure of Gonzalo Higuain means that Suso takes over as Milan’s top scorer with five goals – the Spaniard also leads the league assists total with eight.

Krystof Piatek, who has 13 goals in Serie A, has been signed to replace Higuain and the Poland international made his league debut from the bench last week against Napoli and his Coppa Italia debut against the same team on tuesday evening, where the Polish ace bagged two goals in the opening 26 minutues of the game to open his account for Milan.

Piatek looks set for his first league start and played very well against Roma at his previous club Genoa, where he got a goal and an assist in a 3-2 defeat.

When it comes to goals, Roma have been prolific domestically, averaging almost two goals a game and scoring more than their top four rivals, but its been in defence where they have struggled, conceding more than any of the top six in Serie A.

This imbalance was clearly evident last time out against Atalanta, where Roma went 0-3 up after 40 minutes, only for Atalanta to score three themselves and tie the game by full time.

The constant rotations at the back may be at the heart of their defensive frailties this season, with Roma boss Eusebio Di Francesco still struggling to pick his best back four due to injuries and drops in form.

Edin Dzeko’s brace against Atalanta was his first league goals for Roma since October and the Giallorossi will be hoping he can build that performance this Sunday. Incidentally, the Bosnian has a good record against AC Milan, scoring three times and providing one assist in four previous appearances against them for Roma.

With both teams knowing that a loss will dent their Champions League hopes, and a draw would allow one of Sampdoria, Atalanta, or Lazio to potentially move above both of them, a win is absolutely vital which should make for a fascinating or nervy 90 minutes.

Roma vs. AC Milan: Where is the value?

The attacking proficiency and defensive frailties of Roma lend well to odds of a high scoring fixture with the Total Goals market of Over 3 priced at 2.260*.

Roma could come out of the blocks in rapid fashion yet again as they did against Atalanta, and bettors can get also get Over 0.5 Roma 1st half Total Goals at 1.840*.

Bettors may also look to the Split Handicap market for value, with AC Milan at 0.25 priced at 2.120*.

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Odds subject to change