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Dec 6, 2018

Copa Libertadores preview: River Plate vs. Boca Juniors

River Plate vs. Boca Juniors odds

Inform your River Plate vs. Boca Juniors prediction

Analysing the River Plate vs. Boca Juniors betting stats

Copa Libertadores preview: River Plate vs. Boca Juniors

River Plate play Boca Juniors in the second leg of the Copa Libertadores final. Looking for value in the River Plate vs. Boca Juniors odds? Read on to inform your Boca Juniors vs. River Plate prediction.

River Plate vs Boca Juniors odds

River Plate are available at 2.660* to win the match in 90 minutes, implying a win percentage of less than 40% for the nominal home side. Under 2.00 goals in the match is slightly favoured at 1.862*.

This game is expected to be close as demonstrated by the asian handicap line being set at River Plate +0.00.

  • Boca Juniors have won five of their 12 Copa Libertadores games by two goals or more
  • The Buenos Aires side have kept a clean sheet in half of their Libertadores matches
  • There has been a clean sheet in five of the last six matches between the two sides
  • First leg expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.88 - River Plate 1.73 (source)

River Plate vs. Boca Juniors preview

The last ever two-legged Copa Libertadores final comes to an unusual conclusion in Madrid as River Plate play Buenos Aires rivals Boca Juniors at the Santiago Bernabeu.

The first leg result was undoubtedly a good one for River, ensuring a tied score line ahead of the deciding match. A Boca win was the most likely first leg result according to the odds prior to the match.

Copa Libertadores final: First leg closing line odds

Copa Libertadores final: First leg closing line odds

Boca Juniors

Draw

River Plate

2.53

2.80

3.37

However, a 2-2 draw is far from decisive, especially since there is no away goals rule in this final. River will also be missing key attacker Rafael Santos Borre through suspension. The Colombian forward scored three goals in six games in the Libertadores this season. He could be replaced by Ignacio Scocco who is still battling to return from injury in time for the second leg.

Boca may also have a key injury absence in attack with Cristian Pavon exiting the first leg with a torn muscle. His replacement Dario Benedetto scored Boca’s second goal at La Bonbonera demonstrating his attacking threat coming into this game.

In some ways the first leg was somewhat subdued by Superclasico standards. Of the 10 players who went into Sunday's game a card away from suspension only Borre is suspended for the second leg.

The matches between the two sides often include multiple red cards with six players dismissed across their last seven meetings. The threat of suspension will be removed for the second leg so this match could have more in common with their previous meetings.

Home advantage: the impact of the venue change

Securing a draw in the first leg was a good result for River considering the value of home advantage in the Libertadores. Four of the last five winners of the competition played the second leg of the final in their home stadium. Breaking the goals down by venue shows the value of home advantage.

Goals by venue in the last five Copa Libertadores finals

Goals by venue in Copa Libertadores finals

Home

Away

13

4

However, the unexpected change of venue harms River Plate's chances with the game decidedly more equal on neutral ground.

Impact of venue change on Libertadores final odds

Libertadores odds and venue

Location

River Plate

Draw

Boca Juniors

Municipal (River Plate home)

2.14

2.97

4.51

Bernabeu (Neutral)

2.66

2.90

3.17

River’s implied chance of winning within 90 minutes has fallen from 46.7% on the eve of the cancelled fixture to 37.6%* ahead of this match. A big swing reflective of their loss of home advantage. Boca’s chances of lifting the trophy are certainly improved by the change of location.

Infrom your River Plate vs. Boca Juniors prediction

Over the past five Libertadores finals 17 goals have been scored. Ten of those goals occurred in the second leg suggesting teams are no less attacking in the final match.

Equally, six of last eight Superclasicos have featured two or more goals. If this match follows suit then bettors may find value in backing over 1.5 goals to be scored in the match at 1.510*.

The first leg was a good one for attackers and this match could be no different. River Plate have lost home advantage and may need to score more than one goal to win the match and secure the coveted trophy. River can be backed at 2.010* to score over 1 goal which may prove to be a sensible bet.

Read more expert betting advice to take advantage of Pinnacle’s best value Copa Libertadores odds. 

Odds subject to change

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