Nov 27, 2018
Nov 27, 2018

La Liga preview: Real Madrid vs. Valencia

Real Madrid vs. Valencia odds

Inform your Real Madrid vs. Valencia prediction

Analysing the Real Madrid vs. Valencia stats

La Liga preview: Real Madrid vs. Valencia

In this week’s highlight La Liga fixture, Real Madrid host mid table Valencia. Real Madrid will be looking for a much-needed win in the hope that they can still challenge for the title. Looking for value in Real Madrid vs. Valencia odds? Read on to inform your Real Madrid vs. Valencia prediction.

A close look at the Real Madrid vs. Valencia odds

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Both teams have underperformed expectations this season and are separated by just three points. Real Madrid were beaten 3-0 in their last league game away at Eibar, while Valencia beat Rayo Vallecano at home by the same score. 

The 1X2 odds make Real Madrid the clear favourites, with the odds implying the home side have around a 69% chance of winning this game, compared to Valencia who have roughly a 14% chance of winning.

Under 3 and 3.5 goals is also favoured at 1.884* - this Total Goals Figure suggests the game will be slightly above the league average (La Liga average is 2.53 goals per match this season).

Time: Sunday December 1 19:45 UTC kickoff

Venue: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium

Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona statistics

  • Real Madrid expected goals for per game: 1.89
  • Real Madrid expected goals against per game: 1.28
  • Real Madrid expected points per game: 1.76
  • Valencia expected goals for per game: 1.49
  • Valencia expected goals against per game: 0.92
  • Valencia expected points per game: 1.75
  • Last 10 games: Real Madrid 4, Valencia 2, Draw 4

Real Madrid vs. Valencia predicted lineups

Real Madrid predicted lineup

4-3-3: Courtois; Odriozola, Varane, Ramos, Marcelo; Modric, Ceballos, Kross; Bale, Benzema, Asensio

Should Real Madrid’s players come out of Tuesday’s Champions League game away at Roma unscathed, then they’ll have no fresh injuries concerns.

After four consecutive victories in all competitions for Santiago Solari as interim manager, Saturday’s shock defeat shows a change of management is no guarantee of a change in fortunes.

Centre back Nacho Fernandez will be side lined until at least the New Year with knee ligament damage - while goalkeeper Keylor Navas, who normally only provides backup to Thibaut Courtois in La Liga games, is back in training after a knee injury of his own.

In terms of returns, Casemiro and Sergio Reguilon could return from a sprained ankle and muscle injury respectively – though only Casemiro would be likely to feature if fit.

Valencia predicted lineup

4-4-2: Neto; Wass, Garay, Gabriel, Gaya; Soler, Parejo, Coquelin, Goncalo Guedes; Rodrigo, Mina

Like their opponents, Valencia have Champions League duty to attend to before they make their trip to the Spanish capital. They play Juventus away on Tuesday.

Manager Marcelino García Toral is expected to be able to pick from a fully fit squad, with the exceptions of left-winger Denis Cheryshev and right-back Cristiano Piccini – both of whom have been absent since late October with muscle injuries.

In terms of formation, the Spaniard has yet to stray from 4-4-2 all season.

Inform your Real Madrid vs. Valencia prediction

Finishing third and fourth respectively in last year’s La Liga, Real Madrid and Valencia have both made equally disappointing starts to the season by their own standards.

Separated by just three points, the same amount that stood between the teams at the end of last season, Madrid are currently sixth on 20 points, while Valencia sit tenth with 17 points. Both teams have played 13 games.

This time last season, Madrid had seven more points and were fourth, whereas Valencia had 14 more points and were second.

Humiliated in a 3-0 loss to Eibar in Santiago Solari's first game as permanent coach, Real Madrid have won just three of their last 10 league games – drawing two.

After four consecutive victories in all competitions as interim manager, Saturday’s shock defeat shows a change of management is no guarantee of a change in fortunes.

Having played six La Liga games at home this season, Los Blancos have won four, drawn one and lost only once – conceding only three goals in the process, scoring 10.

In contrast, Valencia’s last outing saw them climb out of the bottom half of the table, after a Santi Mina double helped them secure a 3-0 win over Rayo Vallecano.

Away from home, Los Che have the eighth best record in the division. From six games, they’ve won two, drawn three and lost only once. Scoring four and conceding the exact same amount.

Drawing eight games in total, no team has drawn more games than Valencia this season.

Madrid’s results are actually worse than their performances suggest – meaning they could see an improvement in fortunes very soon.

Despite the apparent similarities between Madrid and Valencia however, both in terms of their league positions and the underwhelming starts they’ve made to the season, the underlying performances of both tells the story of two very different teams.

With an expected goals (xG) of 24.64, but with a goal count of just 20 so far this season, Real would have been expected to score around four more goals than they actually have. While at the other end, their xGA is 16.74 – but they’ve actually conceded 19 goals.

Taking this information into account, Madrid’s results are actually worse than their performances suggest – meaning they could see an improvement in fortunes very soon.

In contrast, Valencia have conceded nine goals this season but have an xGA of 12.08 – suggesting their defence has benefitted from the poor finishing of opposition strikers – but this stroke of luck can only last so long.

Holding the third worst attack in La Liga, Valencia have scored only 11 times all season, but with an xG of 19.37 – their attack may also improve dramatically soon.

Real Madrid vs. Valencia: Where is the value?

Given their home form and general dominance over Valencia, it’s easy to see why the 1X2 odds make Real Madrid the heavy 1X2 favourites at 1.467*. However, this may not represent value to some bettors. In this instance, bettors could consider looking at alternative markets.

Given Madrid are expected to score more goals than they currently are in La Liga, and Valencia’s defence is conceding less than what would be reasonably expected, Over 3 and 3.5 at 2.020* looks a sensible bet.

Alternatively, there has been 34 yellow cards and two red cards in the last six meetings between the two sides – so cards betting could be another option for bettors.

Odds subject to change

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