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Sep 27, 2018
Sep 27, 2018

La Liga preview: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid odds

Inform your Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid prediction

Analysing the Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid stats

La Liga preview: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid play Atletico Madrid in this weekend's highlight game from La Liga. Looking for value in the Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid odds? Read on to inform your Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid prediction.

A close look at the Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid odds

The Money Line odds imply around a 40% chance Real Madrid win the match. The over/under goals total is set at 2.5 which is close to this season's La Liga average of 2.43 goals per game.

Time: Date 18:45 UTC kickoff  

Venue: Santiago Bernabeu

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Predicted lineups

Real Madrid predicted lineup

4-3-3: Courtois; Carvajal, Ramos, Varane, Marcelo; Casemiro, Modric, Kroos; Bale, Benzema, Asensio

One of Odriozola or Carvajal will most likely be available after both missed Wednesday's game through injury. Isco is ruled out due to apendicitis.

Atletico Madrid predicted lineup

4-4-1-1: Oblak; Juanfran, Gimenez, Godin, Felipe Luis; Lemar, Rodri, Saul, Koke; Griezmann; Costa

Saul Niguez should return to the side in place of Angel Correa or Thomas Partey. Rodri provides another midfield option. Vitolo and Stefan Savic are long-term absentees.

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid stats

  • Atletico are undefeated in their last five La Liga visits to the Bernabeu (won three, drawn two)
  • Wednesday's defeat to Sevilla was the first time Real have failed to score in 26 matches
  • Both sides have been defeated just once so far this season
  • There have been three goals per game scored in La Liga matches involving Real Madrid this season
  • La Liga matches involving Atletico Madrid have featured an average of just two goals per game

Inform your Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid prediction

The Madrid derby takes place this weekend with the sides occupying familiar second and third positions in the table. They experienced contrasting fortunes in their midweek fixtures. Atletico secured a comfortable victory over SD Huesca whilst Real suffered a surprise three goal defeat away to Sevilla.

The Sevilla game was possibly the first significant test of Julen Lopetegui's new-look Real. The former Spain manager 
sets his side up to dominate possession in midfield and pushes his fullbacks high up the pitch to join in with attacks.

Worryingly for Saturday's hosts, whilst Sevilla's margin of victory was a little flattering, Wednesday's opponents deserved their victory. Real struggled to contain Sevilla on the counter attack allowing the Sevillanos to create several chances with a high 
expected goals value against an open defence.

Real's poor defensive display throughout that defeat was influenced by how open they were at the back. Real's attack-minded fullbacks have been advantageous against inferior opponents but Sevilla were able to exploit the gaps left behind as Marcelo and Nacho pushed forward.

They will need to address this issue since Diego Simeone's preference for a 4-4-1-1 formation in big matches provides his sides with a great platform to launch counters. Real will hope to limit the number of times Diego Costa and Antoine Griezmann can isolate their central defenders in the way Sevilla's Wissam Ben Yedder and Andre Silva were able to on Wednesday night.

Atletico's front two have the quality to take the game away from Real if their fullbacks do not balance their attacking excellence with defensive duties.

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid: Where is the value?

The first goal in a soccer match is always important and could be even more so in this fixture. A lead suits Atletico's game plan perfectly and could allow them to pick off a vulnerable looking Real on the counterattack.

Atleti are available at 2.460* to score in the first half which could provide value if Real Madrid start as slowly as they did in midweek.

Head-to-head statistics are not always the most reliable indicators of future performance due to small sample size and the variable nature of the way teams play. However, Atletico are undefeated in their last five La Liga visits to the Bernebeu and Simeone does set his teams up in a way that counters Real's more expansive style, a style that Lopetegui's appointment has made more pronounced.

Atletico are well placed to continue this trend ensuring odds of 1.741* on the Atletico Madrid +0.25 handicap should be of interest to bettors.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice. 

Odds subject to change

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