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Jan 15, 2019
Jan 15, 2019

La Liga preview: Real Madrid vs. Sevilla

Real Madrid vs. Sevilla odds

Inform your Real Madrid vs. Sevilla prediction

Analysing the Real Madrid vs. Sevilla stats

La Liga preview: Real Madrid vs. Sevilla

This week’s highlight La Liga game sees Real Madrid host Sevilla, who are level on points. Madrid needed a late goal to see off Real Betis in their last game, while Sevilla were beaten 2-0 away at Athletic Bilbao. Looking for value in the Real Madrid vs. Sevilla odds? Read on to inform your Real Madrid vs. Sevilla odds.

A close look at the Real Madrid vs. Sevilla odds

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The Money Line odds make Real Madrid the favourites, with the odds implying the home side have around a 58% chance of winning this game. A relatively high-scoring game is also expected with odds of 2.080* for Over 3 and 3.5, while there are odds of 1.826* for Under 3 and 3.5. The La Liga average is 2.51 goals per match this season.

Time: Saturday 19 January 15.15 UTC kick-off

Venue: Santiago Bernabeu Stadium

Real Madrid vs. Sevilla statistics

  • Real Madrid goals for per game: 1.47
  • Real Madrid goals against per game: 1.26
  • Real Madrid points per game: 1.73
  • Sevilla goals for per game: 1.63
  • Sevilla goals against per game: 1.05
  • Sevilla points per game: 1.73
  • Last five games: Real Madrid 2, Sevilla 3, Draw 0

Real Madrid vs. Sevilla predicted lineups

Real Madrid predicted lineup:

3-4-2-1: Navas; Varane, Ramos, Nacho; Carvajal, Casemiro, Valverde, Reguilon; Modric, Junior; Gonzalez

Playing with a 4-3-3 for the majority of the season, Madrid changed to a 3-4-2-1 formation in their last game, a 2-1 away win at Real Betis, to accommodate for their lack of first team attacking options due to a host of injuries.

Before this weekend’s game against Sevilla, Madrid travel to Leganes to play the 2nd leg of the Copa del Rey on Wednesday.

Level on points, with 33 from 19 games played, both Real Madrid and Sevilla come into Saturday’s fixture with very uneven form – with both teams struggling to maintain any sort of unbeaten run.

Already 3-0 up from the first leg, in the round of 16 bout, Madrid are again likely to field a second string team, as they have done in previous rounds, though they will be conscious any more injuries in key areas could stretch their squad.

Looking at those on the treatment table, first choice goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is expected to be out of action for at least the next week with a hip injury, while central midfielder Toni Kroos should miss the next two weeks with a tear in his abductor muscle.

Elsewhere, left winger Marco Asensio’s muscle injury will keep him out until the end of the month, with defensive midfielder Marcos Llorente not ready to return until at least next week from his muscle problem.

While Gareth Bale, who’s scored 10 goals for Madrid this season, remains absent with a calf injury.

Karim Benzema, who was taken off at halftime in the Real Betis match with a fractured finger is expected to miss at least three games, with defender Jesus Vallejo, who suffering a hamstring injury in training on Monday, also expected to miss out. 

Sevilla predicted lineup:

3-1-4-2 Vaclik; Gomez, Carrico, Kjaer; Banega; Navas, Escudero, Sarabia, Vazquez; Silva, Ben Yedder

Failing to a 2-0 defeat in their away game at Athletic Bilbao, manager Pablo Machin is unlikely to make some changes for this weekend’s game, but like Madrid, first has Copa del Rey duties to attend to.

Playing Athletic Bilbao, Sevilla won the away leg 3-1, so will be confident of progressing, although they may use a lot more of their first team squad in comparison to Real – as they have done in previous rounds.

Assuming Sevilla don’t pick up any fresh injury concerns after their midweek trip, Machin should benefit from the return of Franco Vazquez, whose suspension is now over, as well as defender Daniel Carrico who is also back from suspension.

Munir El Haddadi, who recently joined from Barcelona for a fee of just €1.05m, may make his first Sevilla start after coming on as a substitute in the away defeat to Bilbao – replacing Roque Mesa.

In terms of absentees, Mesa himself will be suspended, after picking up his fifth booking of the season – while defensive midfielder Maxime Gobalons and left winger Nolito will both miss Saturday’s fixture due to ankle and calf injuries respectively.

Inform your Real Madrid vs. Sevilla prediction

Level on points, with 33 from 19 games played, both Real Madrid and Sevilla come into Saturday’s fixture with very uncertain form – with both teams struggling to maintain any sort of unbeaten run.

Sevilla and Madrid sit just one point above fifth-placed Alaves , and are currently trailing second-placed Atletico Madrid by five points, and La Liga leaders Barcelona by 10 points.

Indeed, while it appears likely Barcelona will regain their title, (odds of 1.153* are currently available for Barca to win the league) the battle for the third and fourth Champions League spots in La Liga appear to be anything but a foregone conclusion – and bettors should be aware of the importance this game could have on the overall league table come the end of the season.

Picking up their first La Liga win of 2019 last weekend, Madrid needed an 88th minute free kick to oversee their victory against Real Betis and end a two-game unbeaten run in Spain’s top division.

Unable to win more than three league games on the trot at any point this season, Real’s league form has been patchy at best – though the sacking of Julen Lopetegui and appointment of Santiago Solari as a full-time manager has improved their performances somewhat – as the graph below illustrates.

Lopetegui vs. Solari

Manager

Played

Won

Drawn

Lost

Goals

Goals against

Points

xG

xGA

xPTS

Position

PPG

Lopetegui

10

4

2

4

14

14

14

19.25

12.40

18.09

9

1.4

Solari

9

6

1

2

14

10

19

12.67

12.41

12.90

3

2.11

Despite the change in management however, Madrid’s current forward line have failed to replicate the scoring of Cristiano Ronaldo – who left in the summer to join Juventus.

Scoring 26 goals in 27 La Liga games, the Portugal international star was most emphatic – scoring 22 goals after the winter break.

Adding to Madrid’s attacking woes, Karim Benzema and Gareth Bale are also expected to face a number of weeks on the sidelines – with attacking midfielder Isco still struggling to force his way into the starting 11.

Benzema and Bale are Madrid’s two highest scorers in the league for Real this year – and seven and four goals in 19 games respectively.

Madrid have won four of their last six La Liga games, drawing once and losing the remainder – in contrast to Sevilla who have won just once in their last six, drawing four and losing once

For Sevilla, Saturday’s game should come as a big opportunity to prove their Top Four credentials – as they have found it difficult to pick up maximum points, particularly on the road, in recent weeks.

Los Hispalenses, as they’re known, have won just once in the past six games, a 2-0 home victory against Girona, and worryingly for them, they have a habit of underperforming in the second half of a domestic season – often at the expense of success in cup competitions.

Still competing in both the Europa League and Copa del Rey, it seems likely Sevilla’s priorities and strength will once again be tested in-depth as the season goes on.

Unlike most teams in La Liga, however, Sevilla have actually had the better of Real in most of their recent meetings.

Thrashing Madrid 3-0 at home back in September, Sevilla also beat them 3-2 at home last season – though they did fall to a heavy 5-0 away defeat. In the last five league games between the sides, Sevilla have won three with Madrid winning two.

Despite the historical data leaning in Sevilla's favour however, recent form suggests Madrid are in a much better position to pick up all three points.

Madrid have won four of their last six La Liga games, drawing once and losing the remainder – in contrast to Sevilla who have won just once in their last six, drawing four and losing once.

Real Madrid vs. Sevilla: Where is the value?

Given that there recent form is far superior to that of Sevilla, the 1X2 odds of 1.729* for Real Madrid could offer value to bettors.

Looking at alternate markets, and keeping in mind Madrid’s lack of outright attacking options, then Under 3 at 2.050* should also be considered by bettors.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.

Odds subject to change

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