Third-placed Real Madrid host fifth-placed Alaves in our highlight fixture from La Liga this weekend. Real have won their last three league games, while Alaves haven’t won in three. So, will Madrid take all three points this Sunday? Read on to inform your Real Madrid vs. Alaves prediction.
A close look at the Real Madrid vs. Alaves odds*
The 1X2 odds make Real Madrid the clear favourites, with the odds implying the home side have around a 81% chance of winning the game, compared to Alaves who have roughly an 8% chance of winning.
The odds currently suggest a high scoring content, with odds of 1.925* available for Over 3 and 3.5. The La Liga average goals per match this season is 2.57.
Time: Sunday February 3 19:45 UTC kickoff
Venue: Santiago Bernabeu Stadium
Real Madrid vs. Alaves statistics
- Real Madrid expected goals for per game: 1.71
- Real Madrid expected goals against per game: 1.27
- Real Madrid expected points per game: 1.68
- Alaves expected goals for per game: 1.02
- Alaves expected goals against per game: 1.28
- Alaves expected points per game: 1.20
- Last five games: Real Madrid 4, Alaves 1, Draw 0
Real Madrid vs. Alaves predicted lineups
Real Madrid predicted lineup
4-3-3: Courtois, Marcelo, Nacho, Ramos, Reguilon; Modric, Casemiro, Kroos; Bale, Benzema, Vazquez
Madrid have been boosted by the news that Sergio Ramos will return to action for Sunday’s league game.
The central defender and club captain was forced off in last week’s 4-2 victory at Espanyol after sustaining a knock to his left knee, although scans have now cleared him of any serious injury.
While Gareth Bale - who scored on his return from injury last weekend - is expected to start. Right-back Daniel Carvajal and centre-back Raphael Varane are both suspended for Sunday’s game. Carvajal picked up his fifth booking of the season in the Espanyol game, while Varane received a red card.
Alaves predicted lineup
4-4-2: Pacheco; Aguirregabiria, Laguardia, Maripan, Duarte; Jony, Manu Garcia, Brasanac; Calleri, Borja Baston
Alaves’ only expected absentees are centre-back Rodrigo Ely, who has missed the last 13 matches with a knee injury and left-back Adrian Marin who’s missed the last two with a muscle injury.
Unlike Real, Alaves do not have a midweek Cope del Rey game to attend to, as they were knocked out by Madrid’s opponents Girona back in December.
However, Alaves have lost star forward Ruben Sobrino for good, as he has joined Valencia on a permanent deal.
Inform your Real Madrid vs Alaves prediction
Separated by just seven points in the table, few would have predicted Real Madrid and Alaves would be in such close proximity at this stage of the season – with Madrid occupying third and Alaves sitting fifth.
With Real 10 points off league leaders Barca, their aim for the rest of the domestic season will be to catch bitter rivals and neighbours Atletico Madrid in second place, or to at the very least secure third place for automatic qualification to next year’s Champions League.
Should they finish fourth, the European champions of the last three seasons will enter the competition at the play-off round stage.
While the overall narrative so far this season has been one of disappointment and underperformance for Madrid, and one of relative success for Alaves, recent form actually tells a more familiar story
Finishing 14th last season, Alaves were 17th and just two points from safety this time last year, signifying how much improvement they’ve made in such a short space of time, and perhaps most crucially, since the appointment of Abelardo Fernandez as manager.
Testament to their contrasting performances so far this season, Alaves beat Real 1-0 at home in La Liga way back in October – thanks to a 90th minute winner from Manu Garcia.
While the overall narrative so far this season has been one of disappointment and underperformance for Madrid, and one of relative success for Alaves, recent form actually tells a more familiar story – and may be a good indication of where both teams are headed, rather than where they are, or where they’ve been.
Winning 4-2 away at Espanyol last Sunday, thanks to goals from Benzema, Ramos and the returning Bale, Madrid have won four of their last six league games, drawing one and losing one.
Following Thursday night's 3-1 away win at Girona in the Copa del Rey, Benzema now has five goals in his last three games.
While Alaves have remained in the top-four race much longer than expected however, there underlying statistics are among the league’s worst. This, and their patchy recent form, all give rise to the idea that their performances and results will eventually regress to the mean and they will start sliding down the table.
In their last six league games, Alaves have won just twice, drawing two and losing two – only the 10th best return from the last six games in La Liga.
Losing 1-0 at home to Rayo Vallecano last weekend, Alaves were thrashed 4-0 by Getafe prior to that – and they haven’t won a league game since beating Valencia 2-1 at home back on January 5. Their last away win was before Christmas – a 1-0 win at Real Sociedad.
In recent head-to-heads between the two sides in La Liga, Madrid have won four of the last five – with Alaves winning once.
Real Madrid vs. Alaves: Where is the value?
Given their recent form and general dominance over Alaves, it’s easy to see why the 1X2 odds make Real Madrid the heavy favourites at 1.232*. However, this may not represent value to some bettors. In this instance, bettors could consider looking at alternative markets.
Given Bale’s return to fitness, Madrid’s recent scoring form (they’ve scored 11 goals in their past three games), and Alaves current defensive woes, Over 3 and 3.5 at 1.925* seems a sensible bet.