Aug 28, 2018
Aug 28, 2018

La Liga preview: Real Betis vs. Sevilla

Real Betis vs. Sevilla odds

Inform your Real Betis vs. Sevilla prediction

Real Betis vs. Sevilla: Where is the value?

La Liga preview: Real Betis vs. Sevilla

The Seville derby is the highlight fixture in La Liga this weekend. Real Betis are hoping to recover from a poor start, while Sevilla will be focused on improving their disappointing finishing position in 2017/18. Looking for value in the Real Betis vs. Sevilla odds? Read on to inform your Real Betis vs. Sevilla prediction.

Live Real Betis vs. Sevilla odds

A close look at the Real Betis vs. Sevilla odds

The away side are the slight favourites heading into this weekend’s fixture with the odds suggesting they have around a 40% chance of coming away with all three points. The betting market is also expecting goals with the Over 3 goals currently priced at 1.917*.

Time: Sunday September 2 18:45 UTC kick-off  

Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarin

Real Betis vs. Sevilla predicted lineups

Real Betis predicted lineup

3-4-2-1 – Lopez Sabata (GK), Mandi, Bartra, Feddal, Guerrero Martin, Guardado, Carvalho, Firpo Adames, Canales, Inui, Garcia

Qique Setien has no new injury concerns and is likely to field the same side that drew with Alaves last weekend - Ryad Boudebouz will be pushing for a start but Real Betis will likely start defensively before turning to their attacking options later in the game.

Sevilla predicted lineup

3-4-1-1 – Vaclik (GK), Mercado, Kjaer, Gomez, Navas, Mesa, Banega, Escudero, Sarabia, Vazquez, Silva

Sevilla have the second leg of their Europa League play-off against Sigma to contend with before this weekend’s fixture. Pablo Machin will likely rotate his team a bit for the midweek fixture but revert to his first choice starting XI for the La Liga game.

Inform your Real Betis vs. Sevilla prediction

Real Betis were a bit of a surprise package last season as they finished in sixth position (just one point off Villarreal in fifth) with a 1-0 win away against Real Madrid being one of the individual highlights.

Real Betis have been unlucky not to find the back of the net in their two games so far and Sevilla have the highest xG of any team in the league.

However, the underlying stats suggest this final position was not a true reflection of their performances throughout the season. Betis were the biggest overachievers in terms of expected goals (scoring 13 more goals and gaining nine additional points compared to what the metric suggests they should have). In contrast, Sevilla were at the opposite end of the spectrum (scoring 12 fewer than their expected goals total).

This shows that while last season does provide us with a better gauge of performance compared to the two games we’ve seen this season, taking the final league table at face value could be a mistake.

Sevilla are the better team and although they’ve lost some key players during the transfer window, they have also recruited well and should be too good for Real Betis (especially when you consider Betis have only won one of the last ten meetings between the two - last season’s eight goal thriller at the Ramon Sanchez Pijuan.

Real Betis vs. Sevilla: Where is the value?

While Sevilla are deserved 1X2 favourites, there is also potential value in other available markets.

The Total Goals mark is relatively high at three but it’s easy to see why, as games involving these two teams last season averaged exactly three goals a game. Additionally, Real Betis have been unlucky not to find the back of the net in their two games so far and Sevilla have the highest xG of any team in the league.

It’s also worth considering the fact that this is the Seville derby and the intense atmosphere could result in an increase in the numbers of cards shown. The two teams had more cards per game than the league average - combining for a total of 5.1 per game - so if bettors are looking for other options in the betting market then cards betting is certainly one to consider.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice. 

Odds subject to change

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