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Two weeks ago
Jan 8, 2019

La Liga preview: Real Betis vs. Real Madrid

Real Betis vs. Real Madrid odds

Inform your Real Betis vs. Real Madrid prediction

Analysing the Real Betis vs. Real Madrid stats

La Liga preview: Real Betis vs. Real Madrid

Real Betis host struggling Real Madrid in this week’s highlight La Liga game. Separated by just four points, will Madrid secure a victory, or will their poor league form continue? Looking for value in the Real Betis vs. Real Madrid odds? Read on to inform your Real Betis vs. Real Madrid prediction.

A close look at the Real Betis vs. Real Madrid odds

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The Money Line odds make Real Madrid the favourites, with the odds implying the away side have around a 47% chance of winning this game. A relatively high-scoring game is also expected with odds of 2.010* for Over 3 goals, while there are odds of 1.869* for Under 3 goals. The La Liga average is 2.51 goals per match this season.

Time: Sunday 13 January 19.45 UTC kick-off

Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarin

Real Betis vs. Real Madrid statistics

  • Real Betis goals for per game: 1.16
  • Real Betis goals against per game: 1.16
  • Real Betis points per game: 1.44
  • Real Madrid goals for per game: 1.44
  • Real Madrid goals against per game: 1.27
  • Real Madrid points per game: 1.66
  • Last six games: Real Betis 1, Real Madrid 4, Draw 1

Real Betis vs. Real Madrid predicted lineups

Real Betis predicted lineup:

3-5-2: Lopez; Mandi, Bartra, Feddal; Guerrero, Canales, Carvalho, Garcia, Tello; Sanabria, Moron

Despite employing a 3-4-2-1 for the majority of the season, Real Betis manager Quique Setien could well deploy a more defensive 3-5-2 formation, as he has done in previous games.

In terms of injuries, left-back Junior Firpo and centre-back Sidnei remain absent with hamstring and shoulder problems respectively.

Highly-rated, Junior Firpo has emerged as a possible transfer target for Manchester City in recent weeks.

Real Madrid predicted lineup:

4-3-3: Courtois; Carvajal, Varane, Ramos, Marcelo; Modric, Casemiro, Kroos, Isco, Benzema, Junior

With Lucas Vazquez facing a possible suspension, following his red card from two bookings in Real’s 2-0 defeat at home to Sociedad, and with a lack of other outright attacking options, Isco may be asked to play as a forward in a front three. Now operating as an attacking midfielder, the Spaniard played as a second striker during his time at Malaga. 

New recruit Brahim Diaz, who signed from Manchester City for €24 million last Sunday, may feature in some capacity – though he has struggled for minutes. Having played just four times all season, the 19-year-old midfielder has not played a full 90 minutes all season – and last appeared in a competitive game on December 18.

Not helped in recent weeks by injuries to some key personnel, left winger Marco Asensio, defensive midfielder Marcos Llorente, centre-forward Mariano Diaz and winger Gareth Bale all remain out until at least the end of the month – with only Diaz expected to be back by mid-January.

Inform your Betis vs. Real Madrid prediction

In stark contrast to Real Madrid, Real Betis have been performing to expectations in La Liga this season.

Currently placed sixth with 26 points from 18 games, Beticos, as they’re known, finished in the same position at the end of last season – and were 10th with 24 points from 18 games, at this stage last year.

Looking at their expected stats for this season, Betis have an expected goals (xG) of 25.16 and an expected goals against (xGA) of 24.46 – compared to their actual goals and goals against figures, both of which stand at 21.

This makes their expected points total 25.88 – meaning the 26 points they’ve amassed so far are more the result of genuine performance and ability, rather than good luck or over-performance - that would naturally regress to a normal rate as the year goes on.

So, bettors looking to form a long-term strategy around Real Betis should consider the fact it appears unlikely their form, or indeed league position, will fluctuate greatly between now and the end of the season.

In terms of recent form, Beticos’ last outing saw them lose 2-1 away at bottom of the table Huesca – conceding twice in the last 17 minutes, having led 1-0 thanks to an Antonio Sanabria penalty.

In their last six games, Quique Setien’s men have won three, drawn once and lost twice. At home, Real Betis have played nine, won four, drawn three and lost twice – scoring 11 and conceding 10 in the process.

Since the arrival of Setien back in 2017, Betis’ style of play has remained largely consistent. High-risk yet entertaining to watch, Betis often play out from the back with a very fluid formation – with patient build up the hallmark of their system.

Now relying heavily on Karim Benzema for goals, the Frenchmen has netted just seven times in the league, from 18 games – and has even been linked with a move away from the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in recent days.

As a result, however, Betis often play with a very high defensive line – which can leave them vulnerable to quick counter attacks should they lose possession.

Relying on multiple sources to chip in with goals, rather than having a standalone stat striker, midfielder Giovani Lo Celso is their highest scorer this season – with four goals and one assist in 15 appearances.

10 points adrift of the top of the table, Real Madrid endured a very disappointing first half of the season – which saw them sack new manager Julen Lopetegui after just four and a half months in charge.

Still hurting from the departure of manager Zinedine Zidane, who guided them to three Champions League titles in a row, and star player Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored 26 goals in 27 La Liga games last season, Madrid sit sixth with 30 points from their opening 18 games.

In comparison to this time last season, at which point they’d played just 17 La Liga games, Los Blancos, as they’re sometimes known, have scored six less goals and conceded seven more – a 13 goal swing.

Now relying heavily on Karim Benzema for goals, the Frenchmen has netted just seven times in the league, from 18 games – and has even been linked with a move away from the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in recent days.

With a personal xG of 8.02, the statistics heavily indicate his modest rate of goal scoring won’t drastically improve anytime soon.

In recent years, Real Madrid have had much the better of Real Betis– winning four of the last six La Liga meetings between the two sides.

Appointing caretaker boss Santiago Solari as a full-time replacement for Lopetegui – Madrid experienced a significant improvement in results initially, but they haven’t won either of their two league games since returning as champions from the FIFA Club World Cup.

Losing 2-0 away to Real Sociedad in their last game, a late Santi Cazorla effort saw Solari’s men held to a 2-2 draw away at Villarreal in the previous game.

In recent years, Real Madrid have had much the better of Real Betis– winning four of the last six La Liga meetings between the two sides.

Recent form, and current league standings, however, show the teams are a bit closer this time round.

Real Betis vs. Real Madrid: Where is the value?

Despite their proximity in the league table to Betis, and their uncharacteristic poor form all season, Madrid remain favourites for the fixture - so the 1X2 odds of 2.150* could still offer value to bettors.

Given the attacking playing styles of both teams however, as well as their vulnerabilities in defence, the goals market should also seriously be considered by bettors.

Indeed, the last six league meetings between the two sides have produced 26 goals – an average of 4.3 per game. Currently, Over 3 is available at 2.000* which may also offer value.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.

Odds subject to change

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