Aug 27, 2020
Aug 27, 2020

Outright Premier League betting: 2020/21 Premier League preview

Making 2020/21 Premier League predictions

2020/21 projected Premier League table

Using expected points to predict the Premier League table

Who will win the Premier League?

Outright Premier League betting: 2020/21 Premier League preview

Where is the value in Pinnacle’s Premier League 2020/21 outright betting odds? This article uses Pinnacle’s projected points for each team to predict the Premier League table. Who are the Premier League teams bettors should be aware of this season? Read on to find out.

2020/21 Premier League table predictions: What do the odds say?

This is the predicted Premier League table based upon Pinnacle’s Premier League over/under points totals:

2020/21 Premier League projected points

Position

Team

19 / 20 points

20/21 projected points

1

Liverpool

99

85.5

2

Manchester City

81

90.5

3

Manchester United

66

72.5

4

Chelsea

66

69.5

5

Leicester City

62

60.5

6

Tottenham

59

66.5

7

Wolves

59

57.5

8

Arsenal

56

64.5

9

Sheffield United

54

52.5

10

Burnley

54

42.5

11

Southampton

52

51.5

12

Everton

49

48.5

13

Newcastle United

44

37.5

14

Crystal Palace

43

40.5

15

Brighton

41

42.5

16

West Ham

39

40.5

17

Aston Villa

35 34.5

18

Leeds

N/A

45.5

19

WBA

N/A

34.5

20

Fulham

N/A

34.5

This is the points change from 2019/20 to 2020/21 as implied by Pinnacle’s projected point totals:

Premier League Projected Points change

Team

Point change

Liverpool

-13.5

Manchester City

+9.5

Manchester United

+6.5

Chelsea

+3.5

Leicester City

-2.5

Tottenham

+7.5

Wolves

-1.5

Arsenal

+8.5

Sheffield United

-1.5

Burnley

-11.5

Southampton

-0.5

Everton

-0.5

Newcastle United

-6.5

Crystal Palace

-2.5

Brighton

+1.5

West Ham

+1.5

Aston Villa

-0.5

Pinnacle’s point totals anticipate that champions Liverpool will decline compared to their 2019/20 campaign. Their closest rivals Manchester City are expected to improve by some margin this season, and Pinnacle's odds project that it will be City who are crowned champions in May, albeit by fine margins.

However, are Pinnacle’s projected points a fair reflection of team’s abilities?

Premier League 2019/20 expected points vs. 2020/21 projections

Expected points use expected goals data to calculate the number of points a team can expect to win based on the quality and quantity of shots taken by themselves and their opponents in individual matches.

Looking at last season’s expected points data should help to isolate any teams who over or underperformed. The teams whose seasons varied significantly from this statistic may regress to the mean during the 2020/21 season.

Premier League 19/20 expected points vs 20/21 projections

Team

2019/20 expected points

20/21 projected points

Difference

Liverpool

74.28

85.5

+11.22

Manchester City

86.76

90.5

+3.74

Manchester United

70.99

72.5

+1.51

Chelsea

73.49

69.5

-3.99

Leicester City

61.16

60.5

-0.66

Tottenham

49.26

66.5

+7.24

Wolves

63.82

57.5

-6.32

Arsenal

50.15

64.5

+14.35

Sheffield United

49.34

52.5

+3.16

Burnley

49.54

42.5

-7.04

Southampton

56.87

51.5

-5.37

Everton

55.78

48.5

-7.28

Newcastle

31.92

37.5

-6.58

Crystal Palace

38.26

40.5

+2.24

Brighton

48.02

42.5

-5.52

West Ham

38.75

40.5

+1.75

Aston Villa

37.23

34.5

-2.73

As you can see from the table, Liverpool's expected points total of 74.28 suggested their actual point return last season of 99 was a big overperformance compared to their expected points, while their closest rivals Manchester City underperformed compared to what was expected.

The expected points from last season also show that both Arsenal and Tottenham heavily underperformed, and are projected to improve on their 2019/20 showings.

Liverpool and Leicester City perhaps show the limitations of using expected points data. They both considerably outperformed their expected goals for and against last season, so the data does not reflect the quality of their players.

Chelsea are a side who underperformed their xG in all three categories throughout the season and are projected to drop by 3.99 points this campaign on their expected points total, but with the signings that Frank Lampard has made especially in attacking areas, the London club could be a potential value selection compared to Pinnacle’s point totals.

Tottenham are a team who heavily overperformed on their xG totals last campaign, including their expected points, and this type of form is hardly ever sustainable. Currently, Tottenham depend on Harry Kane and Son Heung-min for goals far too much, and although they have created a terrific partnership together, Jose Mourinho will likely need to find more goals from other areas of the pitch if they are to improve upon last season’s points tally and not decline further down the table.

Outright Premier League betting: Who will win the Premier League title?

Based on Pinnacle's points projections, the Premier League title this season will once again be a two-horse race between Liverpool and Manchester City. City are rated as being a full five points ahead of Liverpool in the race for the title, which might come as a surprise to some bettors after Liverpool dominated the league so convincingly from start to finish last season. However, Liverpool were very fortunate to achieve their tally despite playing superbly throughout the campaign and the chances of Liverpool repeating a total of 99 points is extremely optimistic.

In recent seasons, City have profited from having such a deep squad, which has been needed when injuries to key players occured. However, last season they did not didn't perform to the level expected when injuries did come around and they will need to respond more effectively from losing positions as this was an area they were very poor in by their high standards. City might also need to sign a new striker to replace Serio Aguero, who is now getting on in years and has a history of picking up injuries throughout the season. Gabriel Jesus could prove to be the answer, but it might be risky to rely on the Brazilian to lead the line throughout such a rigorous campaign and it would be unlikely they can obtain such high performances with just one striker available.

In terms of winning the Premier League title, Manchester United are expected to be the closest team to challenge Liverpool and Manchester City, but until they address their issues in key areas of the pitch, this seems unlikely. With Mikel Arteta firmly bedded in as manager and having made the signings of Willian, Gabriel Magalhaes and William Saliba, Arsenal are projected to heavily improve on their points total from the last campaign, but it is extremely unlikely that they will win the Premier League title.

Based on last season's numbers, Jurgen Klopp's side are available at 2.700* to defend their Premier League crown and could offer value at those odds. City are often priced as heavy favourites due to their attacking quality, but they will need to improve on key areas of their game and mentality if they are to justify their odds. Currently, as things stand Liverpool look like a great value bet to retain their title.

Making Premier League season predictions

When betting on points totals and Premier League outrights bettors should be aware of a team’s expected and actual performance.

Given that their strong 19/20 season is backed up by impressive statistics, Leicester City look like a team that could once again surprisingly offer value on their total points. They are available at 2.520* to win over 60.5 points this season and this could represent value to bettors.

It is also worth noting that you should monitor any potential departures from clubs that will weaken them in key areas. Wolves are projected to gain 57.5 points this season based on Pinnacle's odds, although with some of their key players such as Raul Jimenez and Ruben Neves looking like targets for other clubs, their chances of achieving this total would regress if they were to be sold.

Crystal Palace also come into this category, as although they have made improvements to their squad, they could lose their key player in Wilfred Zaha, which would also make it harder for them to outperform their projected points tally. The Premier League transfer window remains open until Monday, October 5.

Burnley are a team that may see their point total drop from last season, but could represent value in their odds for the 2020/21 campaign. Sean Dyche's side over-performed across the board last season and it will be difficult to replicate those numbers with their current squad. Their overperformance of 11.5 points based on Pinnacle's predictions and the fact they are 1.862* to achieve over 42.5 points this season could offer value, as the Clarets could regress by over 11 points and still be a winning bet.

Bet with Pinnacle for the best Premier League odds ahead of the 2020/21 season. Read our Premier League predictions for insight into every Premier League gameweek.

Odds subject to change

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