It has been one of the closest Premier League title races in years, and with just one game remaining bettors are analysing every potential twist and turn this weekend. Read on to find out all the different scenarios bettors will need to look out for on the final day of the Premier League season.
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A close look at the final day scenarios
Manchester City are just one point ahead of Liverpool in the Premier League table, but if Liverpool win their final game and Manchester City fail to win, the Merseyside club will be crowned champions, so what are the different scenarios for the final day?
A Manchester City win
Manchester City will travel to Brighton Hove Albion on Sunday, and if they are victorious, they will win the Premier League.
The Manchester club have now won 13 Premier League games in a row after edging past Leicester City on Monday at the Etihad.
Liverpool win and Manchester City lose
If Liverpool win their final game at home against Wolves, and Manchester City lose, then they will be champions.
The Reds have the home advantage - and are unbeaten at home all season, with odds implying that they have around a 75% chance of victory.
Both Liverpool and Manchester City draw
If both sides draw their final match then Manchester City will be crowned champions by one point, meaning despite only losing one game all season, and gaining 95 points, Liverpool would miss out on the title.
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Brighton vs. Manchester City: where is the value?
Manchester City will travel to Brighton and the odds suggest Pep Guardiola’s men have around an 85% chance of victory. The betting market is also expecting goals with Over 3 and 3.5 Goals currently priced at 1.840*.
City are in control of the title race, and come into the match off the back of a victory over Leicester City which was their 13th straight win in the league. Although they had to work hard for it, it was a deserved win in a game in which they dominated (xG: MCI 1.56 - LCI 0.47).
Manchester City, have shown this season that they are the best team in the league, conceding an average of just 0.67 xGA per game with the best attacking process (2.47 xGF per game) and it is no surprise that they have around a 90% chance of retaining their Premier League crown on Sunday.
Brighton come into the match after avoiding defeat away from home against 'big six' opposition for the first time in the Premier League, having drawn 1-1 with a frustrated Arsenal – and they had lost each of their last 11 games before that.
With a more clinical edge, Brighton could have even taken all three points, and they looked a solid unit against a side that have accumulated the third-highest xG in the Premier League behind only Liverpool and Manchester City this season.
"Manchester City, have shown this season that they are the best team in the league, conceding an average of just 0.67 xGA per game with the best attacking process (2.47 xGF per game)"
Brighton, with home advantage sit 19th ahead of only Huddersfield, when analysing the expected goals statistics, and it will take a performance on par with Sunday’s efforts to be competitive in the fixture.
A bet which could offer value is the Brighton +2 and +2.5 split handicap at odds of 1.847. With home advantage, Chris Hughton's set up could be well-suited to frustrating Manchester City and keeping the game as compact as possible, whilst the Manchester club will certainly have nerves of their own as they look to retain their Premier League crown.
Liverpool vs. Wolves: Where is the value?
Liverpool will come into the match with Wolves having thrashed Barcelona 4-0 in the return leg of the Champions League semi-final in midweek, and so they will be in a buoyant mood. The Reds have been doing a fine job in pursuit of a first Premier League title, constantly putting pressure on Manchester City to deliver, and Sunday will be no different.
Jurgen Klopp’s side’s performances have been superb, averaging 2.10 xGF per game this season, while conceding a notably low average of 0.59 GA per game. The odds suggest they now only have around a 15% chance of winning the Premier League, but bettors should expect a professional display and vibrant Anfield crowd, meaning Money Line odds of 1.343* could still be of interest to bettors.
Wolves come into the fixture off the back of a victory against Fulham and are unbeaten in four matches, beating Arsenal and Watford away in that process. The Midlands club have enjoyed an outstanding return to the Premier League and manager Nuno Espirito Santo has been nominated for Manager of the Season, after guiding them to a seventh-place finish and possible Europa League qualification.
Wolves have picked up 57 points so far this campaign – the most of any newly-promoted team for almost two decades, and their expected goals figures make for positive reading, especially defensively – with the fifth best defence in the league with a GA total of 44 and xGA of 1.01 per game, potentially making Odds of 1.840 on the +1.5 Wolves handicap a value bet.
Throughout the Premier League season, you can find value in corners betting, betting on cards or use an expected goals model to inform your betting.