Dec 19, 2016
Dec 19, 2016

Part 3: Premier League predictions - Pinnacle vs. Mark Lawrenson

Catch up on part one and two of the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge

Find out the results from part three of the Premier League predictions challenge

Part 3: Premier League predictions - Pinnacle vs. Mark Lawrenson
During the current Premier League season, we have been running a challenge between Pinnacle and BBC soccer pundit Mark Lawrenson to see who can produce the most correct Premier League predictions. We're now half way through the season and have another five weeks worth of results to analyse. Read on to see the results.

Mark Lawrenson makes his predictions for the BBC website every week using his ‘expert’ knowledge. In contrast, Pinnacle’s selections are devised from our handicap market - something that can be influenced by the activity of our bettors and the wisdom of the crowds

While part one of the challenge was very close, Lawrenson begun to pull away in part two. The bookmaker and pundit are closely matched on the number of correct Premier League predictions going into next round of fixtures - Pinnacle with 55/100 and Lawrenson 57/100.

However, if the selections used were betting predictions - we’ve placed a hypothetical 10 bet on each pick to make it more interesting - Lawrenson has enjoyed much more success. The bookmaker is down 11.63 and the pundit up 179.88. There’s still a long way to go, but will Pinnacle be able to bridge the gap?

Week 11

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The pattern that has developed since the opening weeks of this challenge continued in week 11. With very similar selections, it was only Lawrenson’s correct draw prediction in the West Ham United vs. Stoke City game (at closing odds of 3.530) that separated the pundit from the bookmaker. In terms of betting predictions, Pinnacle lost 55.30 in week 11 and Lawrenson lost 20.00.

Week 12

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Once again, it was a single correct draw prediction that was the difference between Pinnacle and the pundit in week 12. At closing odds of 3.240, a draw in the Manchester United vs. Arsenal game meant Lawrenson was up 20.09 for the week, while Pinnacle was down 12.31. Only two weeks in to part three and we can already see how Lawrenson has made his money in the challenge so far. 

Week 13

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Lawrenson’s tendency to go for the draw didn’t quite work in his favour in week 13. Although the pundit picked the Hull City vs. W.B.A draw at closing odds of 3.110, so too did the bookmaker. It was Pinnacle’s Southampton to beat Everton selection that was the difference between the two - Pinnacle was up 7.66 for the week and Lawrenson was down 13.94.

Week 14

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Week 14 was the first instance in part three of the Bookmaker vs. Pundit challenge that Pinnacle and Lawrenson were separated by more than one correct selection. Lawrenson managed to correctly predict that Crystal Palace would beat Southampton and that Everton would draw with Manchester United - both at closing odds of 3.660. This meant the BBC pundit was 59.41 up for the week, while Pinnacle was down another 13.79.

Week 15

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Although Pinnacle correctly predicted 5/10 compared to Lawrenson’s 4/10 in week 15, it was still the pundit who performed better in terms of betting predictions. A Burnley victory against Bournemouth and a surprising Leicester City win against Manchester City helped Lawrenson to a 9.51 profit for the week. Pinnacle, however, slumped to a 14.50 loss.

At the half way point, Mark Lawrenson has pulled further ahead in the number of correct Premier League predictions and has also established a healthy lead in terms of his betting predictions. At this stage, Pinnacle has made 79/150 correct predictions and is down 99.86. Lawrenson may only be four correct predictions ahead on 83/150, but he is 234.96 in profit since the challenge began.

Bettors will often ask, “How good are betting tipsters?” But this question can never be answered on a short-term basis. It’s widely accepted that luck can influence betting and while Lawrenson’s predictions have been impressive up until this point, there is still a long way to go before his selections can be trusted.

Has Lawrenson given himself an insurmountable lead? Can Pinnacle catch the ex-Liverpool defender before the end of the season? Find out more in part four of this article.

Making your own betting predictions this weekend? Get the best odds on Premier League betting at Pinnacle.

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