May 16, 2017
May 16, 2017

Part 7: Premier League predictions - Pinnacle vs. Mark Lawrenson

Pinnacle's Handicap market vs. The predictive powers of Mark Lawrenson

Will we see evidence of the Green Lumber fallacy in full effect?

Who has made more profit in terms of soccer betting predictions?

Part 7: Premier League predictions - Pinnacle vs. Mark Lawrenson

The Premier League season is drawing to a close. The title has been decided, the relegated sides have been confirmed and the top four is all but assured. One thing that hasn’t been decided, however, is the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge. Who is more efficient in terms of predicting results, Pinnacle or BBC’s “expert” Mark Lawrenson? Read on to find out.

At the start of August, the Premier League season kicked off with its first round of fixtures. Since then, Pinnacle and Mark Lawrenson have been battling it out to see who can correctly predict the most results - using a hypothetical €10 bet on each selection, we have also turned them into soccer betting predictions to see who would win the most if money was on the line. 

After part six of the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge, Pinnacle led Lawrenson with 170 correct predictions out of 293 matches compared to the talking head’s 165 out of 293. However, due to different selections and Lawrenson’s tendency to pick a draw at high closing odds, he was more than €369.02 ahead in terms of betting predictions (Lawrenson is €532.52 in profit, with Pinnacle behind on €163.50).

Week 31

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Pinnacle started where it left off in part six of the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge with an impressive first week in part seven. A score of 8/10 helped the bookmaker increase its lead over Mark Lawrenson who managed just 5/10. The gap in profit from betting predictions continued to close as well thanks to a +€57.76 week for Pinnacle and a loss of €7.76 for Lawrenson.

Week 32

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The number of correct predictions in week 32 was the same as week 31 with Pinnacle scoring 8/10 and Lawrenson notching 5/10. Unfortunately for the BBC “expert”, his draw predictions failed to pay off and he slumped to a €24.37 loss. By contrast, Pinnacle’s correct prediction of a draw in the Middlesbrough vs. Burnley game (at closing odds of 3.040) helped the bookmaker to a €46.82 profit.

Week 33

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Pinnacle continued to make steady profit as the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge moved into week 33. While both Pinnacle and Mark Lawrenson managed to get 7/10 correct predictions, it was Lawrenson’s previous saviour, the draw, which proved his undoing.

The talking head didn’t predict a single draw and Pinnacle took advantage of a draw between Sunderland and West Ham (3.510), securing a total profit of €35.13 - €8.20 more than Lawrenson’s €26.93 profit.

Week 34 (part one)

 

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A reduced fixture list meant week 34 of the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge was split in two. Pinnacle still managed to outscore Lawrenson in terms of the number of correct predictions - scoring 4/6 compared to the talking head’s 3/6.

Lawrenson continued to pick the draw (50% of his predictions were draws in week 34) but only the West Ham vs. Everton draw yielded any profit in terms of betting predictions. Heading into the last week of part seven, Pinnacle made another €19.01 profit against Lawrenson’s €13.94.

Week 34 (part two)

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Despite struggling throughout part seven of the challenge, Mark Lawrenson ended week 34 in the same fashion that has helped him to a healthy overall lead in terms of betting predictions - picking a draw at high odds.

Both Pinnacle and the BBC “expert” got 4 of their 5 predictions right in week 34. However, a draw in the Manchester derby (at odds of 3.460) meant Lawrenson ended the week €29.61 in profit, with Pinnacle just behind on €17.11.

It should come as no surprise that using the Handicap odds from Pinnacle produces more efficient predictions than an ex-professional soccer player.

There are now only three sets of fixtures left in this year’s Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge. Out of the 41 matches in part seven, Pinnacle managed to correctly predict 31 results. Mark Lawrenson, on the other hand, managed to predict just 24.

That means the scores now stand at 201/334 to Pinnacle and 189/334 to Lawrenson. Although the bookmaker has a comfortable lead heading into the final few stages of the challenge, it is Lawrenson who is ahead when turning these selections into soccer betting predictions - he has amassed €570.87 profit compared to Pinnacle’s €339.34.

It should come as no surprise that using the Handicap odds from Pinnacle, “the world’s sharpest bookmaker” produces more efficient predictions than an ex-professional soccer player. What it interesting is that with a hypothetical €10 applied to each selection, it is Mark Lawrenson who leads the way.

Will we see evidence of the Green Lumber fallacy in full effect or will the BBC pundit stay ahead of Pinnacle in terms of soccer betting predictions? We’ll find out in the final instalment of the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge.

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