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Mar 13, 2017
Mar 13, 2017

Part 5: Premier League predictions - Pinnacle vs. Mark Lawrenson

After 250 predictions, how closely matched are Pinnacle and Mark Lawrenson?

Will the BBC pundit continue to benefit from the draw with his betting predictions?

Part 5: Premier League predictions - Pinnacle vs. Mark Lawrenson
Throughout this season’s Premier League campaign, we have been running a soccer predictions challenge between Pinnacle and BBC pundit, Mark Lawrenson. To make things more interesting we have placed a hypothetical €10 bet on each prediction. So who has made the most money so far? Read on to find out.

The Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge has been running since the opening day of the season. Pinnacle’s predictions are calculated using the Handicap odds available before kick-off, while Lawrenson’s come from his weekly score predictions submitted to the BBC website.

The scores currently sit at 113/200 for Pinnacle and 114/200 for Lawrenson. However, because the BBC pundit often sides with a draw and has managed to pick a few underdog victories, he is €343.54 in profit while Pinnacle is only €5.13 up.

Week 21

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Neither the bookmaker nor BBC pundit got off to the best of starts in part five of the challenge. Pinnacle’s score of 6/10 predictions resulted in a €6.34 loss compared to Lawrenson’s €6.24 loss from 5/10. Once again, it was the draws - Watford vs. Middlesbrough and Manchester United vs. Tottenham - that gave Lawrenson the edge.

Week 22

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Pinnacle struggled once again in week 22 of the challenge - a score of 5/10 meant it was a second consecutive week in the red with a loss of €15.14. The benefit of picking the draw was evident once again as the BBC soccer pundit was €20.13 in profit after also getting 5/10 predictions correct.

Week 23

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Week 23 marked three weeks of negative returns for Pinnacle in the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge. This time, it was €22.05 after scoring just 3/10. Mark Lawrenson only managed one better in terms of the number of correct predictions - the draw in the Stoke vs. Everton game (at closing odds of 3.370) helped the talking head notch up €14.05 worth of profit though.

Week 24

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The bookmaker finally managed to stop the rot in week 24 - 7/10 correct predictions meant the €10 hypothetical bet on each game would have resulted in a €25.77 profit for Pinnacle. With no draws from all ten fixtures, Lawrenson’s tendency to find the high odds let him down as he picked up on 5/10 predictions and suffered a €13.05 loss.

Week 25

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The pattern that has remained a constant over the 250 predictions so far was apparent once again in week 25. It was six predictions apiece out of the possible ten, but another two draws (West Ham vs. W.B.A at 3.280 and Middlesbrough vs. Everton at 3.330) proved to be the difference. The BBC pundit picked up €27.47 worth of profit, while Pinnacle was just €4.37 up for the week.

The Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge is incredibly close after 250 predictions. Pinnacle has correctly predicted 139/250 results, while Mark Lawrenson is on 138/250. However, despite being separated by just one correct prediction, there is a dramatic difference when a hypothetical €10 bet is applied to each selection.

When analysed as betting predictions, Mark Lawrenson has amassed an impressive €385.89 profit compared to the bookmaker’s €8.26 loss.

When analysed as betting predictions, Mark Lawrenson has amassed an impressive €385.89 profit compared to the bookmaker’s €8.26 loss - consistently predicting a draw has proven to be a successful tactic for the BBC pundit (even when his strike rate with draw predictions is lower than 40%).

Pinnacle’s Handicap market may well benefit from the wisdom of the crowd - a high volume of bets helps make the odds as sharp as possible - but it doesn't seem to have helped the bookmaker produce more accurate betting predictions.

There's 180 predictions left to make. Will Pinnacle stay ahead with more correct predictions? Can the bookmaker turn around the betting preictions defecit? Find out in part 6 of this challenge.

Want to make your own soccer betting predictions? Get the best Premier League odds online at Pinnacle.

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Benjamin studied English with Creative Writing (BA) before pursuing a career that combined his love of sport and fascination with betting. An avid fan of numerous sports, his writing now covers anything from in-depth major sporting event previews, to examining betting trends and techniques.

By Benjamin Cronin

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