This week’s highlight fixture in Serie A sees perennial odds deifiers Parma take on Champions League chasing Inter, with the home side looking to beat Inter for the second time this season. Can Parma continue to upset the odds? Will Inter bounce back and strengthen their top three position? Read on to inform your Parma vs Inter Milan prediction.
Parma vs. Inter Milan odds*
The 1X2 odds suggest that Inter are the comfortable favourites to win the game, with a 58% chance of securing an away victory. The Over/Under is set at 2.5, with the odds marginally suggesting a high scoring scoring contest with the over priced at 1.900*. Bettors can also currently get Parma on the +1 Handicap at 1.662*.
Date – Saturday February 9
Time – 18:30 UTC
Venue – Ennio Tardini
Parma vs. Inter Milan predicted lineups
Parma predicted lineup
4-3-3 – Sepe (GK), Iacoponi, Alves, Bastoni, Gagliolo, Kucka, Scozzarella, Barilla, Biabiany, Inglese, Gervinho
Parma coach Roberto D’Aversa rarely makes sweeping changes, and may opt to name the same 11 that started away to Juventus last time out. Amando Ciciretti and Leo Stulac could make cameos from the bench, with Alberto Grassi being the only long-term absentee with an ACL injury.
Inter Milan predicted lineup
4-2-3-1 – Handanovic (GK), Cedric, de Vrij, Skriniar, Dalbert, Vecino, Brozovic, Martinez, Nainggolan, Perisic, Icardi
Inter manager Luciano Spaletti has been switching between a 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1 formation in recent weeks trying to find his best set-up. Laurato Martinez could operate in a wider flank to replace Antonio Candreva, whilst Joao Mario could come into midfield to replace Nainggolan or Vecino.
Sime Vrsaljko is ruled out with injury for the rest of the season, whilst Borja Valero will also miss out on Saturday. Winger Matteo Politano Is suspended.
Parma vs. Inter Milan statistics
• The last home meeting between Parma and Inter in Serie A was in November 2014, where Parma were 2-0 victors.
• Inter Milan have only beaten Parma twice in their last seven matches.
• Parma haven’t won in their last four home games in Serie A.
• Inter are currently on a three game winless streak (D1, L2).
• Inter have not scored more than one goal in their last eight league matches.
• Parma have an xG per game of 1.12 and an xGA of 1.65
• Inter Milan have an xG per game of 1.59 and an xGA of 1.05
Inform your Parma vs. Inter Milan prediction
Undoubtedly the league’s biggest surprise and success story, Parma have been overachieving tremendously to find themselves vying for a Europa League place after being heavily tipped for relegation before the season started.
A team steeped in history, Parma’s rise and fall from relegation to Serie D to four consecutive promotions back to Italy’s top flight has been likened to a Hollywood movie – consistently defying the odds with some memorable performances throughout the season.
One of those memorable performances was Parma’s first league win of the season, which was in fact against Inter at the San Siro, with a strike from on-loan Inter full back Federico Dimarco settling the game 1-0 to Parma in dramatic circumstances.
Last time out, perhaps even more impressively, Parma were able to recover from 3-1 down away to Juventus (who are having their best ever league season) to draw the game 3-3 thanks to a Gervinho brace either side of a Barilla goal.
Parma have certainly relied on Ivory Coast international Gervinho as well as on-loan Napoli striker Roberto Inglese who have both scored eight league goals for the Crociati – as many as the rest of the team combined.
Goal-scoring has been a problem of late for Inter. They have failed to score more than one goal in their last eight league matches and rank eighth in the league for goals scored (only seven more than opponents Parma).
Captain and talisman Mauro Icardi is in the midst of a goal drought, as the Argentine is without a goal in his last six appearances for the Nerazzurri.
Defensively, Inter have the second best record behind Juventus, conceding one goal more, so if they can rectify their performances in front of goal, they should go onto record much more positives results.
After winning away to Inter and drawing away to Juventus, Parma will come into the game brimming with confidence despite being the clear underdogs against the third placed team in Serie A.
Inter meanwhile appear a little short of confidence. Spaletti seems to be struggling to identify his best formation and tactical set-up, as well as his best 11 and the constant rotations don’t seem to be helping his team’s performance.
According to the odds, this should be a routine victory for Inter, but given both teams’ contrasting form coming into the game, it would be unwise to rule out Parma doing the double over the 18-time league champions – or at least holding them to a draw.
Parma vs. Inter Milan: Where is the value?
With Inter lacking proficiency and efficiency in front of goal and Parma's inventible defensive approach heading into the game, betters may look to the Over/Under market for value, with under 2.5 currently priced at 2.000*.
Having scored three away to Juventus last time out, bettors may back Parma to continue their goal scoring exploits, with Parma to score over one goal available at 2.280*.
If bettors believe that Inter can discover their attacking prowess, then the the Handicap market might be the most appealing option with Inter -1 currently priced at 2.340*.
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