Feb 23, 2018
Feb 23, 2018

Analysing the Champions League winner odds

Who are the favourites in the outright Champions League betting

Which teams' Champions League winner odds offer value?

What impact has the round of 16 first leg had on the odds?

Analysing the Champions League winner odds

We are now past the halfway point in domestic campaigns across Europe. The Champions League group stage is over and the competition has entered the knockout phase. Which teams offer value in the Champions League winner odds? Read on to find out.

Champions League winner odds

With 16 teams left in the competition, the race to be crowed champions of Europe 2018 is still wide open. After the round of 16 first leg representatives from Spain, Germany, Italy all feature at the top of the outright Champions League betting market but it is a side from England (who have a record five representatives in the Round of 16) who lead the pack.

Strong first legs for five of the six favourites has led to their Champions League winner odds shortening with PSG being the notable exception.

Champions League winner odds




Manchester City






Bayern Munich






Real Madrid






Manchester City

Before a ball was kicked in the Champions League group stage, Manchester City were priced at 12.00 to win Europe’s biggest club competition. Now, after a comprehensive first leg victory over Basel, Pep Guardiola’s side are the outright favourites in the Champions League winner odds (4.279*).

The Citizens are currently the highest scoring team in the top five leagues of European soccer (averaging 2.91 goals per game) and have the eighth best defence (conceding just 0.74 goals per game and allowing their opponents only 6.7 shots per game).

Unrivalled squad depth has meant the runaway Premier League leaders have had no problem transferring their domestic form into Europe’s elite soccer competition - they recorded the joint-highest points total in the group stage and had the fifth best goal difference despite being in one of the harder qualification groups.

Paris Saint-Germain

PSG were close behind Manchester City in the outright Champions League betting market but a first leg defeat to Real Madrid has caused their odds to drift out to 11.500*. Having started the competition as second favourites, their impressive form throughout the group stage has solidified this position. 

The French side are often overlooked as Champions League contenders due to a perceived lack of competitiveness in their domestic league. However, Unai Emery’s side are the top scorers in the competition so far (25 goals) and only Barcelona (one) and Manchester United (three) have conceded less than The Parisians (four).

Bayern Munich

Manchester City and PSG have been the standout performers in the Champions League this season thanks to a free-flowing attacking style of play. Bayern Munich, meanwhile, have matched both sides in terms of points earned in the group stage (15) and will hope to continue their impressive record of reaching the semi-final in five of the last six seasons.

The fact that the reigning Bundesliga champions finished second in Group B (losing out to PSG on goal difference) actually worked in their favour. PSG were drawn against Real Madrid (who finished second in Group H) and Bayern, who would have expected the tougher draw, will play Besiktas in their Round of 16 fixture.

Bayern Munich’s Champions League winner odds dropped from 8.31 to 6.100* after the 5-0 win over Besiktas but it is when the competition reaches the semi-final stage that bettors may start to doubt the German side (particularly if Real Madrid or Barcelona remain in the competition) - Bayern have been knocked out by Spanish opposition four times in the last four years.


After being knocked out by Juventus in the quarter-final last season and losing out to Real Madrid in La Liga, Barcelona were priced at 7.80 to win this year’s Champions League before the group stage (the highest price they have been at the start of the competition in the last four years).

Still unbeaten in both La Liga and the Champions League, Barcelona are on their way to being back to their best. A tough Round of 16 tie against Chelsea seems to have put a halt to any interest in Barcelona in the outright Champions League betting market but if their good form continues over the next few months, their odds of 5.7* could well be the best value on offer. They are favoured to qualify over Chelsea and PSG's loss has helped their chances.

So often led by Lionel Messi, this season is no different for the Catalan side. The Argentinian forward has been directly involved in over 45% of his side’s goals in all competitions and is still capable of dismantling any defence in Europe singlehandedly. Ernesto Valverde won’t want his side to rely on Messi too much but he’s a great asset to have when it comes to knockout soccer.

The best of the rest

Real Madrid (7.00*) and Liverpool (11.50*) both performed well in the first leg and their odds have dropped as a result, yet they have experienced contrasting fortunes this season.

Despite being top scorer in the Champions League with nine goals, Cristiano Ronaldo has struggled for form in the league and Real Madrid find themselves 19 points adrift of league leaders Barcelona - they are closer to the relegation zone than the top of the table.

Liverpool, on the other hand, although 15 points off Manchester City have only lost twice in the Premier League and are yet to be defeated in the Champions League. Mohammed Salah has been a revelation for the Reds, notching an impressive 18 goals in the league and another five in European competition.

Liverpool’s outright Champions League winner odds drifted out to 33.00 after drawing the first two games.

Champions League winner odds: Outsiders with a chance

Given that the Champions Leagues pits the best soccer teams from around Europe against each other, it is no surprise that so many sides are closely matched at the top of the outright betting. However, further down the list there are some teams that could be underestimated by bettors.

Tottenham Hotspur (16.00*) picked up the most points of any team in the group stage (from a group that many believed to be the hardest to qualify from). They impressed against Real Madrid in their group games and produced a credible performance to come back from two down away to Juventus. They have shown good pedigree against Europe's best and could cause some more surprises should they get past the Turin side.

Roma also qualified from a difficult group (beating both Chelsea and Atletico Madrid to first place in Group C) and are priced higher than many might expect in the outright Champions League betting market - they are currently 66.000* after a poor result away to Shakhtar Donestk. They are still favoured by many to qualify and may present value at such high odds.

With a strong defensive set-up and consistency of Edin Dzeko upfront, the Italian side seem well suited to the knockout format of the latter stages in the Champions League. Although many might doubt their potential to win, Eusebio Di Francesco’s team could offer a viable hedging opportunity should they progress in Rome.

Odds subject to change

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