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Feb 6, 2018
Feb 6, 2018

Serie A preview: Napoli vs. Lazio

Serie A preview: Napoli vs. Lazio

Napoli play Lazio this weekend in the highlight Serie A fixture. Looking for value in the Napoli vs. Lazio odds? Read on to inform your Napoli vs. Lazio prediction.

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A close look at the Napoli vs. Lazio odds

The odds suggest a Napoli win with the home side money line favourites to win the match. The match is likely to be close however, with Lazio favourites on the +1 handicap at 1.746*. The two sides average over two goals a game. Odds of 1.662* on over 2.5 goals to be scored suggest a high-scoring game.

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Napoli vs. Lazio stats: What you need to know

Time: Saturday 10th February 19:45 GMT kickoff

Venue: Stadio San Paolo

  • Napoli have the best defensive record in Serie A this season (14 goals conceded)
  • Top of the table Napoli have won their last 7 matches
  • The league leaders have won five of their last six matches against Lazio
  • Lazio have scored 58 Serie A goals from 41.89 expected goals
  • Lazio’s Senad Lulic and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic return from suspension
  • Ciro Immobile is the current Serie A top goalscorer (20 goals)

Inform your Napoli vs. Lazio prediction

Two of Serie A’s most entertaining sides come face-to-face at Stadio San Paolo in a match that could have a big impact on the title race.

League leaders Napoli are undefeated in their last 7 Serie A matches and possess the league’s best defensive record. Lazio, in contrast, have suffered a recent slip in form after losing back-to-back matches for the first time this season.

Injuries and suspensions have added up for the Roman side. Top goalscorer Ciro Immobile missed the 2-1 defeat against AC Milan whilst key players Senad Lulic and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic missed the loss to Genoa through suspension.

All of these players are available for the encounter with Napoli and it will be interesting to see if the return of their key men can help Lazio remove rediscover their previous form.

Napoli have been able to field a settled side this season and their title challenge has been built upon the consistency of their starting eleven. Ten of Napoli’s first choice lineup have played more than 1500 league minutes. Faouzi Ghoulam’s long-term absence has been the only injury setback for Napoli.

With Napoli’s intimidating defence and offensive ability meeting Lazio’s restored attack the game could come down to how well the Rome sides’ defence performs. Lazio certainly have the quality to score goals but they have a mediocre defensive record. This ultimately cost them in their last encounter with Napoli as a 1-0 lead was quickly turned into a 4-1 defeat.

Lazio typically lineup in a standard 3-5-2 formation. The balance of the match will depend on the two wingbacks in this system. They must provide width in attack whilst also covering Napoli’s offensive threat.

Napoli’s front three of Insigne, Callejon and Mertens will be well fancied to win a straight match against Lazio’s back three so the Biancocelesti wingbacks may need to be more cautious going forward than usual.

Napoli vs. Lazio: Where is the value?

The odds suggest a home win is the most likely result and, even with the returning Lazio players, this is the most likely outcome.

Napoli are well balanced at both ends of the pitch. They will be comfortable soaking up Lazio’s offensive pressure and countering through the brilliance of their front three. This is a formidable combination which has made them the team to beat in Serie A.

Lazio’s best hope may be to attempt to outscore their opponents. Milinkovic-Savic and Immobile are individually brilliant and have been two of the outstanding performers in Serie A this season. If that duo performthey are capable of beating any side. They will need to be at their best to make up for any defensive weakness Napoli can exploit.

A high scoring Napoli win seems to be a likely result then. Odds of 2.260* on Napoli to score 3 or more goals will offer value if Lazio attempt to outscore their superior opponents.

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Odds subject to change

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