Napoli play Genoa in this weekend’s highlight Serie A match. Looking for value in the Napoli vs. Genoa odds? Read on to inform your Napoli vs. Genoa prediction.
A close look at the Napoli vs. Genoa odds
Napoli have lost their lead in the title race but are considered likely to win this game with the odds implying a greater than 75% chance of a home win.
Genoa have struggled this season and are not expected to threaten Pepe Reina in Napoli’s goal. This is reflected by odds of 2.230* on over 0.5 Genoa match goals.
Napoli vs. Genoa stats: What you need to know
Time: Sunday March 18, 19:45 GMT kickoff
Venue: Stadio San Paolo
Napoli: Left-back Faouzi Ghoulam (injury) remains Napoli’s only major absentee.
Genoa: Miguel Veloso and Armando Izzo are doubtful for this match.
- Napoli’s Serie A home record: ten wins, two draws, two losses
- Genoa’s away record in Serie A: five wins, four draws, five losses
- Napoli have failed to win in consecutive Serie A games for the second time this season
- The home side average 2.29 goals per game at the San Paolo
- Genoa have failed to score in 13 of their 27 Serie A matches
Inform your Napoli vs. Genoa prediction
Napoli welcome Genoa to the San Paolo for a game which could have big implications at both ends of the table.
The home side were leading the way in the Scudetto race but a defeat to Roma followed by a stalemate against Inter Milan has handed Juventus the advantage. In a close title race with little margin for error this is a must-win game for Napoli.
Their visitors, Genoa, are positioned just six points away from the relegation zone but have recovered from a terrible start which saw them pick up just two points from their first seven games.
Considering their league position, the Genoese actually possess a relatively strong defence. They have conceded the fifth fewest goals in Serie A and have a better defensive record than top four candidates AC Milan and Lazio.
Genoa’s issues are caused by an inability to score goals. No player has scored more than three times for the Genoese and only struggling Benevento and Sassuolo have scored fewer times in Serie A than Genoa.
Napoli have conceded just 0.68 goals a game this season so better attacking sides than Genoa have struggled to score against them this season. It should be noted, however, that the Genoese did secure a shock 2-0 victory over Inter Milan recently so they do have the potential to cause an upset on their day.
Napoli vs. Genoa: Where is the value?
Napoli need to win this game and they should do so fairly comfortably.
The Neopolitans have been exceptional this season and recent results in games against strong sides near the top of the table should not disguise their superiority over Genoa.
Expect Napoli to dominate possession and probe for chances. Genoa are used to defending deep and rarely concede more than three goals but also seldom score many themselves.
Odds of 1.694* on under 0.5 Genoa goals could offer value with the away side expected to struggle to create chances.
Given the quality difference between the two sides it is hard to argue against a convincing home win. The Napoli -1.5 handicap is available at 1.735* which represents good value if the sides perform to expectations.
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