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Dec 3, 2018

Premier League preview: Manchester United vs. Arsenal

Manchester United vs. Arsenal odds

Inform your Manchester United vs. Arsenal prediction

Manchester United vs. Arsenal: Where is the value?

Premier League preview: Manchester United vs. Arsenal

Arsenal take their impressive unbeaten run to Old Trafford on Wednesday to play Manchester United in our highlight Premier League fixture. Looking for value in the Manchester United vs. Arsenal odds? Read on to inform your Manchester United vs. Arsenal prediction.

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A close look at the Manchester United vs. Arsenal odds

With home advantage, the 1X2 Odds make Manchester United favourites at odds of *2.460, to win what looks like a close encounter at Old Trafford. The implied probability of a win for Jose Mourinho’s side is 40%.*

The Over/Under Total is set at 2.5 & 3 which means the betting market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 & 3 Goals currently priced at 1.847*.

Time: Wednesday, December 5, 20:00 UTC kick-off

Venue: Old Trafford

Manchester United vs. Arsenal predicted lineups

Manchester United predicted lineup

(4-2-3-1) De Gea; Dalot, Matic, Jones, Shaw; McTominay, Herrera; Lingard, Pogba, Martial; Lukaku.

Manchester United team news:

Jose Mourinho will be forced to make a change at left back with Ashley Young serving a one-game suspension.

United could also be without as many as eight defenders for the clash with Chris Smalling and Eric Baily facing late fitness tests.

Arsenal predicted lineup

(3-5-2) Leno; Bellerin, Mustafi, Holding, Sokratis, Kolasinac; Torreira, Guendouzi; Ramsey, Mkhitaryan, Aubameyang; Lacazette.

Arsenal team news:

Granit Xhaka is suspended so will serve a one-match ban, that should mean that Matteo Guendouzi will step in to take the Swiss internationals place in the midfield.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal expected goals stats

• Manchester United expected goals per game: 1.62

• Manchester United expected goals against per game: 1.50

• Manchester United expected points per game: 1.41

• Arsenal expected goals per game: 1.48

• Arsenal expected goals against per game: 1.35

• Arsenal expected points per game: 1.47

Inform your Manchester United vs. Arsenal prediction

Manchester United come into the fixture having secured just 12 points from a possible 21 since the mini Mourinho crisis period and while that would be deemed a respectable return, it is the team's overall performances which continue to be the biggest concern.

The Reds also have a bit of an injury and suspension crisis ahead of the clash with several key players set to miss out which is good news for Unai Emery and Arsenal. As it stands, Jose Mourinho may only have one center-back to pick from again, Phil Jones who is lacking match sharpness.

United will likely look at the result with an optimistic perspective against Southampton after going two goals down early on at the weekend, and draw some positives from the result. But the reality is that only Fulham have kept less clean sheets than Jose Mourinho’s side this season, and only the current bottom five have conceded more than their total of 23 goals which highlights their defensive frailties.

"Arsenal fixtures this season have seen both teams’ score in nearly 80% of matches (both teams managed to score in 11 out of 13 matches played this season)."

The Reds have conceded 15 more goals than at the same point last season and had also collected 10 more points this time last year. When analysing the expected goals’ statistics, according to Understat.com’s xG figures, no side outperformed more in xGA (expected goals against) than United last season.

Mourinho’s men had David De Gea to largely thank for this as they were escaping conceding goals from more of the high-quality chances created against them than any other side in the Premier League. Conceding a lot of good chances is unmaintainable, and it seems they are now experiencing the wrong side of this ending in deserved poor results.

Arsenal head into this midweek fixture in good form, and will be looking to claim all three points to stretch their lead on one of their closest rivals for a top four finish.

The North London side are now unbeaten in 12 Premier League games following a dominant 4-2 win over archrivals Tottenham on Sunday, a game in which a switch in formation to three central defenders and early substitutions at half-time improved their performance.

One of Arsenal’s main problems this season as discussed in previous analyses is being exploited by runs into space in behind the defence, mainly when being counter-attacked by the opposition. The switch from Unai Emery appeared to counter a lot of these problems by nullifying Tottenham’s ability to break quick and counter – especially in the second half.

While the signs are clearly there that Arsenal are improving, Unai Emery’s side have been fortunate to have gained as many points as they have according to the expected goals table, and it is possible that at some point soon they will have a period of regression, with their luck running out.

This is an improving Arsenal side but while Arsenal’s collective record suggests they will head into the fixture in a buoyant mood, it is worth bettors being aware of their poor record at Old Trafford in recent seasons.

The Gunners have not won at Old Trafford in the Premier League since 2006, and their only victory against the Reds was an FA Cup victory back in 2015. Unai Emery’s side will need to be at their best to secure a result and any kind of subpar display will likely result in defeat despite Manchester United being poor so far this season.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal betting: Where is the value?

The Gunners have a poor record at Old Trafford, but under new management, they will want to put things right and demonstrate how much they have improved. This season Arsenal have improved under Unai Emery whilst Manchester United have regressed and a 0 and +0.5 handicap bet on Arsenal at odds of 1.840* looks a sensible bet.

For bettors looking to alternative markets, Arsenal fixtures this season have seen both teams’ score in nearly 80% of matches (both teams managed to score in 11 out of 13 matches played this season). The average percentage of games in which both teams score in the Premier League is nearly 52% and with both teams statistics in attack and defence this season there is a high probability that both sides will score at some stage.

It is also worth bettors noting that between the two sides they have accumulated a total of 55 cards this season in the Premier League in just 14 matches – an average of over 3 per game – so if bettors are looking for other alternative markets then cards betting is one to consider.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.

Odds subject to change

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