Manchester City vs. Manchester United is always one of the highlight fixtures in a Premier League season, and the two teams meet this Sunday in an intriguing Manchester Derby. Looking for value in the Manchester City vs. Manchester United odds? Read on to inform your Manchester City vs. Manchester United prediction.
The Money Line odds make Manchester City strong favourites, with the implied probability of a win for Pep Guardiola’s side at nearly 75%.*
The over/under total is set at 3 and 3.5 which means the betting market is expecting goals with over 3 and 3.5 goals currently priced at 2.080*.
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Time: Sunday, November 11, 16:30 UTC kick-off
Venue: Etihad Stadium
Manchester City vs. Manchester United predicted lineups
Manchester City predicted lineup
(4-3-3) Ederson; Walker, Stones, Laporte, Mendy; B. Silva, Fernandinho, D. Silva; Mahrez, Sterling, Aguero.
Manchester City team news
Kevin De Bruyne has been sidelined for five to six weeks after suffering knee ligament damage during City’s Carabao Cup fourth-round win over Fulham.
Goalkeeper Claudio Bravo is a long-term absentee.
Manchester United predicted lineup
(4-3-3) De Gea; Young, Smalling, Lindelof, Shaw; Matic, Herrera, Pogba; Sanchez, Martial, Lukaku.
Manchester United team news
Phil Jones is still out but Antonio Valencia should be available after being sidelined for the last few weeks.
Manchester City vs. Manchester United expected goals stats
• Manchester City expected goals per game: 2.97
• Manchester City expected goals against per game: 0.59
• Manchester City expected points per game: 2.61
• Manchester United expected goals per game: 1.77
• Manchester United expected goals against per game: 1.56
• Manchester United expected points per game: 1.48
Inform your Manchester City vs. Manchester United prediction
Manchester City come into the match vs. Manchester United as Premier League leaders, following an emphatic win over Southampton at the weekend.
Pep Guardiola’s side have been performing at the highest level in nearly all of their matches so far, meaning they are defeating teams by significant margins, especially when they have home field advantage.
The gap in class between the league leaders and teams who have visited the Etihad Stadium is evident to see and last season’s Premier League winners will be expected to win again on Sunday, though bettors should not expect it to be as comfortable as recent home matches.
"Pep Guardiola’s side have been performing at the highest level in nearly all of their matches so far, meaning they are defeating teams by significant margins, especially when they have home field advantage."
City have been the best attacking team, averaging 3 goals per game, and the best side defensively, conceding just four goals with an expected goals against per game of only 0.59. If the current champions can maintain this form and continue to produce these kind of statistics, they will once again be crowned champions, and will have a good opportunity to make another statement against Manchester United.
It is also worth noting that despite their impressive attacking play, most of Manchester City’s defence have now played together for more than a year, which is one key factor why the Citizens are also looking more solid defensively, and the inclusion of Aymeric Laporte and Benjamin Mendy has noticeably improved the side in this area.
Manchester United have begun winning games again after an unsettled period; victories over Newcastle, Everton and Bournemouth last weekend has seen Jose Mourinho’s side rise to seventh in the table, but although the Reds have been creating more chances in those games, their defensive issues remain problematic.
A key talking point has been who should lead the line, mainly due to Romelu Lukaku's lack of form. The Belgium international has not scored for United since September but Anthony Martial has filled the void - scoring five goals in his past four Premier League matches.
Mourinho will likely start with Lukaku despite Martial returning an impressive rate of one goal every 106 minutes, and a shot conversion rate of 62.5% - which highlights how much more effective the young Frenchman is as a central striker, and the kind of impact he can have on United getting consistent results moving forward.
Defensively, the Reds have conceded 18 goals in the Premier League so far this season, and have kept just one clean sheet in that period – the kind of figures you would expect from a mid-table side. When analysing the statistics further, they have already played some of the weaker teams in the league such as Burnley, Newcastle, and Brighton – which means things could get worse for Mourinho when facing improved opposition.
In every match this season no side has found it difficult to create chances against against Manchester United, and with how impressive Manchester City have been, there is a high probability that Pep Guardiola’s side will create plenty of chances this weekend.
United were lucky against Bournemouth, as they were poor defensively, and Manchester City will not be so forgiving if allowed the same to happen this weekend. The Reds should have been punished for their defensive play and Rashford’s injury time winner should not hide the fact that it is a problem which continues to reoccur in matches.
Manchester City vs. Manchester United betting: Where is the value?
Based on form Manchester City are justified 1X2 favourites, but odds of 1.371* might not be attractive to bettors in a Manchester derby, so it is worth looking to alternative markets.
The total goals mark is set high at 3 and 3.5, but the statistics show that this is justified, with Manchester City averaging 3 goals per match and taking a huge 229 shots on goal so far this season.
Additionally, the Citizens are in free-scoring form and have the highest xG in the Premier League. Add to that, Manchester United have only kept one clean sheet this season and have conceded 18 goals in 11 matches, odds of 2.080* on over 3 and 3.5 could represent value.
Bettors looking to other alternative markets it is also worth considering cards betting. The fact this is a Manchester Derby, the passionate atmosphere could result in an increase in the numbers of cards shown. Manchester United have had more cards per game than the league average - combining for a total of 23 yellow cards and 2 red cards in just 11 matches - so if bettors are looking for other possibilities in the betting market then cards betting is definitely one to consider.