Our highlight fixture in the Premier League this weekend comes from Etihad Stadium as title-chasers Manchester City take on Chelsea. Looking for value in the Manchester City vs. Chelsea odds? Read on to inform your Manchester City vs. Chelsea prediction.
A close look at the Manchester City vs. Chelsea odds
The Over/Under is set at 3 which means the betting market is expecting goals with Over 3 Goals currently priced at 2.100*.
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Time: Sunday, February 10, 16:30 UTC kick-off
Venue: Etihad Stadium
Manchester City vs. Chelsea predicted lineups
Manchester City predicted lineup
(4-3-3) Ederson, Walker, Otamendi, Laporte, Danilo, Fernandinho, De Bruyne, D. Silva, Sterling, Sane, Aguero.
Manchester City team news:
Benjamin Mendy and Vincent Kompany remain out through injury.
Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling were rested in midweek but will be expected to start against Chelsea.
Chelsea predicted lineup
(4-3-3) Arrizabalaga; Azpilicueta, Rudiger, Luiz, Alonso; Jorginho, Kante, Barkley; Willian, Hazard, Higuain.
Chelsea team news:
Chelsea currently have no major injury news.
Manchester City vs. Chelsea expected goals stats
• Manchester City expected goals per game: 2.45
• Manchester City expected goals against per game: 0.76
• Manchester City expected points per game: 2.32
• Chelsea expected goals per game: 1.73
• Chelsea expected goals against per game: 0.93
• Chelsea expected points per game: 1.95
Inform your Manchester City vs. Chelsea prediction
The Premier League title race is starting to get interesting as we enter the final third of the season and the current outright odds of 1.714* mean Manchester City are now favourites to lift the trophy again.
The reigning champions will enter the match with Chelsea coming off the back of a resounding win against Arsenal and a good victory away at Everton and it seems the Citizens are hitting form at the right time. City were far from their flowing best at Goodison Park, where they found Everton's 4-4-1-1 system tough to break down, but crucially managed to capture all three points.
Guardiola has placed a high importance on working the ball into high-percentage shooting positions this season, and it is working to their advantage as they have now racked up 65 goals in 26 Premier League matches.
"The Blues collapsed to a 4-0 defeat away to Bournemouth the week before, which will likely have bettors unsure what kind of performance to expect on Sunday."
The reigning champions have the best attack in the league so far according to the statistics, and have scored ten more goals than Liverpool. They have taken the most shots in the league, whilst a lot of these are from close range, which in turn has resulted in a higher goal output than any other side.
Chelsea enter the fixture with Manchester City off the back of a resounding home victory over Huddersfield, but the Blues collapsed to a 4-0 defeat away to Bournemouth the week before, which will likely have bettors unsure what kind of performance to expect on Sunday.
The west London club inflicted the first defeat of the season on Manchester City back in December at Stamford Bridge, winning 2-0, but this fixture will be played in a much different style of play and bettors should not read too much into the result two months back.
Mauricio Sarri has had more time to prepare for the fixture than Guardiola, but with City’s squad depth it is unlikely to have any major impact on the final result. Counter-attacks will offer their best hope against the champions, so bettors should expect City to maintain the bulk of the possession.
Pep Guardiola’s system at Manchester City is based upon pulling the opponent’s players out of position to exploit the space, and after analysing Chelsea’s defeat to Bournemouth where the Cherries were a consistent threat on the break, Mauricio Sarri will need to rethink his system if they are to come away with a positive result at the Etihad on Sunday.
Manchester City vs. Chelsea betting: Where is the value
Based on form and with home advantage, Manchester City are justified 1X2 favourites. Chelsea have lost their last three away matches in all competitions and odds of 1.520* might be an attractive option to bettors.
The champions are formidable at home and will set a Premier League record if they score twice - the 15th time in a row they would have done so – which means Manchester City – Totals Over 2 at odds of 1.961 could be an eye-catching bet.
The total goals mark is set relatively high at 3, but the statistics show that this is warranted. There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 73% of games involving Manchester City (19 out of 26 games this season have finished with 3 or more goals). The average percentage of games where there were over 2.5 goals in Premier League is 55%.
Bettors looking to other alternative markets it is also worth considering totals in the half-time betting market. There was over 0.5 goals at half-time in 92% of games involving Manchester City (24 out of 26 games this season involving City have had more than 0.5 goals at half-time) and odds of 1.641 on over 1 could potentially represent value.