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Mar 16, 2018
Mar 16, 2018

Premier League preview: Liverpool vs. Watford

Liverpool vs. Watford odds

Inform your Liverpool vs. Watford prediction

Analysing the Liverpool vs. Watford stats

Premier League preview: Liverpool vs. Watford

Watford travel to Anfield in our highlight fixture this Saturday, with Liverpool looking to bounce back from their defeat against Manchester United. Looking for value in the Liverpool vs. Watford odds? Read on to inform your Liverpool vs. Watford prediction.

A look at the Liverpool vs. Watford odds

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Unsurprisingly, Liverpool are heavy favourites going into Saturday's game, with an 81% chance of taking all three points based on the odds.

With over 2.5 Liverpool goals odds of 1.806* (compared to their under 2.5 goals odds of 2.080*), the odds suggest there will be goals for the home side.

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Liverpool vs. Watford stats: What you need to know

Time: Saturday, March 17, 17:30 GMT kickoff

Venue: Anfield

  • Liverpool are unbeaten at home in the Premier League this season (won nine, drawn six)
  • Watford have won just one of their last 13 away games (all comps), losing 10
  • Liverpool have conceded just 10 goals at home in the Premier League, the third-best record
  • Watford have conceded 11 goals in their last five away games
  • Mohammed Salah has scored 35% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season

Team news:

Liverpool: Nathaniel Clyne still out due to a long-term abdominal injury.

Watford: Tom Cleverly, Christian Kabasele, Nathaniel Chalobah and Younes Kaboul just a few on a long injury list, all likely to miss out on the trip to Anfield.

Inform your Liverpool vs. Watford prediction

A seven-game unbeaten run for Klopp’s men came to a halt last Saturday to the hands of Manchester United.

After pushing United close for the second position for so long, they now find themselves looking over their shoulder, as Chelsea in fifth place stand just four points behind them. Another loss and a season that looked so promising for Liverpool could easily come crashing down.

Particularly as Liverpool travel to Stamford Bridge for their penultimate Premier League game of the season. If Chelsea can find some form and Liverpool begin to stumble, then 5 May could be decisive.

If there was a team Liverpool would want to face at home at the moment, it would be Watford. Three away wins in a row at the start of the season looked promising for the Hornets, only to win just five points from a possible 36 since.

Javi Garcia’s men have failed to score in their last four away games, and with their highest scorer being midfielder Abdoulaye Doucoure on just seven goals, it is difficult to see where Watford’s threat will come from on Saturday.

Manchester United did unearth another weakness in Liverpool’s defence that has correctly come under scrutiny this season; Dejan Lovren’s inadequacies in the air.

Whilst January signing Virgil Van Dyke has brought some much needed aerial superiority to Liverpool’s back line (he has won 4.8 aerial duels per game in the Premier League this season, no centre-back has won more), United’s Romelu Lukaku instead targeted Dejan Lovren for his aerial duels; a duel that he won.

Both of Manchester United’s goals last weekend came from Lukaku knock-downs, which set the Red Devils on the ascendency and the Liverpool defence running back towards their goal.

If Javi Garcia uses Troy Deeney in a similar fashion this Saturday and deploys close runners, then Watford’s strikeforce could cause Liverpool’s defence some problems.

Ultimately, Saturday’s fixture does feel like Liverpool’s to lose, and with the last six fixtures between the sides offering 22 goals, it would be unlikely that their strikeforce fails to find the net.

Liverpool vs. Watford: Where is the value?

Before their most recent loss, Liverpool looked in scintillating form, and I am seeing that loss as merely a bump in what is ultimately a very even road. In fact, United’s expected goals on Saturday was just 0.85; so perhaps Liverpool were unlucky to come away from Old Trafford without a point.

The value looks to lie in the handicap market. Liverpool have won by two or more goals in four of their last six meetings with the Hornets. If their front three of Salah, Mane and Firmino can continue on their blistering form that have seen them net 45 goals between the three of them, then Liverpool’s -1.75 odds of 1.961* could offer value.

An interesting development will be how Liverpool recover from their most recent loss and if Watford can learn anything from United’s display.

There are still question marks surrounding Liverpool’s defence and last weekend’s performance only cemented that. Watford to score over 0.5 goals is priced at 1.943*, and it will take just a momentary lapse in concentration to see that come to fruition.

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