Oct 31, 2019
Oct 31, 2019

Liga MX: Queretaro vs. Tigres – Preview

Expectancy reset

Success vs. schedule

Betting market analysis

Liga MX: Queretaro vs. Tigres – Preview

Tigres head south after a midweek home match to take on upstart Queretaro in the 15th matchday of Liga MX. With four games left to play, will Tigres earn a needed victory to remain inside the top eight? Can Queretaro win as a home underdog to move back into the league lead? Where is there value in the betting market?

Expectancy reset

Los Gallos Blancos have put together one of the most impressive, surprise performances in recent Liga MX history.

After 15 matches, they have earned 27 points and can move into the top spot with a victory. A goal differential of +11 with 26 goals for, and 15 conceded, ranks third-best in the league.

Their expected goals differential confirms their superiority but makes a small question mark regarding their defence. At an expectancy of 1.55 for and 1.30 against, Queretaro has an expected goal differential of 24 and 18 or +6.

Despite lingering at the bottom of the top eight for the majority of the season, Tigres have put forth arguably the most impressive opening 14 matches of any team in Liga MX.

At 1.55 expected goals for per match, they rank third, and at 0.80 expected goals against, they rank first.

The 13 goals conceded rank tops in Liga MX but are two goals worse than expected. Surveying the strength of teams inside the top eight, it is difficult not to make Tigres the favourite to win the title.

Success vs. schedule

Aside from overachieving the second-best word to describe Queretaro is timely. The eight wins for Queretaro have come against Toluca (15th), Cruz Azul (12th), Pachuca (11th), Juarez (17th), Veracruz (19th), Monterrey (13th), San Luis (14th) and Pumas (7th).

Their four losses have been to Santos (1st), Atlas (8th), Necaxa (2nd) and Leon (5th). Queretaro continues to beat up on the worst teams in the league and crumble against the best.

Tigres have been the opposite. On a direct head-to-head comparison, Tigres have earned victories against three (Santos, Necaxa and Leon) opponents who defeated Queretaro and salvaged a draw away at the fourth (Necaxa).

The margin of victory for Tigres has been most impressive - a foul goal victory two weeks ago against league leaders Santos, a 3-1 lead against second-place Necaxa, and a 2-0 win away at Monterrey.

Where Queretaro has been timely, Tigres has been dominant.

Betting market analysis

Tigres opened at odds of 2.45 (41% implied probability) but drifted to odds of 2.60 (38% implied probability).

This match is taking place in Queretaro, so there is a home-field advantage priced into the market. However, the price at open was too long, and the adjustment has made it even more favourable for the visitors.

Despite what the table suggests, Tigres are the superior side in this matchup. They have not only proven it through expectation, but against a much more difficult resume of opponents.

The centre back duo of Romo and Cadete struggled against the 4-4-1-1 of Santos midweek, and it is difficult to see them improving against Gignac and Valencia for Tigres.

Ricardo Ferretti is rated much higher than Victor Vucetich from a tactical perspective, and this match should play in favour of Tigres as their athleticism can compete with that of Queretaro.

The inflated price presents Tigres +0 on the Asian Handicap at a great price at 1.80.

Odds subject to change

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