Nov 20, 2018
Nov 20, 2018

Serie A Preview: Lazio vs. AC Milan

Lazio vs. AC Milan odds

Lazio vs. AC Milan statistics

Inform your Lazio vs. AC Milan prediction

Lazio vs AC Milan: Where is the value?

Serie A Preview: Lazio vs. AC Milan

This week’s highlight fixture in Serie A sees Lazio take on an injury hit AC Milan side in the race for European qualification. Who will strengthen their claim for Champions League soccer? Can AC Milan’s makeshift defence cope? Read on to inform your Lazio vs. AC Milan prediction.

Live Lazio vs. AC Milan odds

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The Money Line odds suggest this will be a home win, with Lazio coming into the game as favourites with a 55% chance of victory. The Over/Under total is set at 2.5 and 3, with the the odds suggesting a high scoring contest with Over odds currently available at 2.000*.

Date – Sunday November 25

Time – 16:00 UTC

Venue – Stadio Olimpico

Lazio vs. AC Milan predicted line-ups

Lazio predicted line-up

3-4-2-1 – Strakosha (GK), Felipe, Acerbi, Radu, Marusic, Parolo, Berisha, Durmisi, Alberto, Correa, Immobile

Simone Inzaghi is likely to rotate his side following the 1-1 away draw to Sassuolo. Milinkovoic-Savic is an injury doubt after picking up a hamstring knock while on international duty with Serbia. Argentine Joaquin Correa is likely to deputise in a three pronged attack alongside top scorer Ciro Immobile and Luis Alberto.

AC Milan predicted line-up

3-4-2-1 – Donnarumma (GK), Abate, Zapata, Rodriguez, Kessie, Bakayoko, Suso, Laxalt, Borini, Castillejo, Cutrone

AC Milan are in the midst of a crisis, with key players across the team (especially in defence) missing through serious injury and suspension.

Captain Alessio Romagnoli became the latest senior centre back to pick up an injury in yet another defensive blow, as he joins Mattia Caldara and Matteo Mussachio who are both ruled out until the new year with serious ruptures in the Achilles and Cruciate ligament respectively. Romagnoli’s injury however is less serious and should only miss a month with a calf strain.

The injuries at the back will force Gennaro Gattuso in an untried three man back-line made up of Abate, Zapata and Rodriguez – with Zapata being the only recognised centre back of the trio. Gattuso could give young Stefano Simic his first professional start in Serie A for AC Milan as he is the only other natural centre back available.

To add to AC Milan’s problems, top scorer Gonazlo Higuian misses out through a suspension he picked up last time out against Juventus whilst midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu will also likely be sidelined through injury. Lucas Biglia and Giacomo Bonnaventura aren’t expected to return until March and April 2019.

Lazio vs. AC Milan statistics

• AC Milan have four wins in their last eight meetings against Lazio (P8 W4, D2, L2)

• There have been Over 2.5 goals in five of the last eight league meetings between the two teams

• Both teams have scored in all but one of the last 10 league meetings

• Lazio have an xG of 1.78 per game and an xGA of 1.1

• AC Milan have an xG of 1.48 and an xGA 0.97

Inform your Lazio vs. AC Milan prediction

Lazio welcome the Rossoneri to the Stadio Olimpico in what could turn out the be a very difficult evening for the red half of Milan. To say AC Milan come into the game in crisis would be an understatement.

They are missing their first choice centre backs, central midfielders and striker through injury and suspension which could severely impact their chances of getting a positive result against an opposition they usually do well against if history is anything to go by.

Up to this point, AC Milan had been performing well defensively but have been unlucky in terms of actual goals against, conceding four goals more than their xGA predicted. Moreover, despite conceding more goals than anyone in the top six, AC Milan have the second best xGA in the league behind table toppers Juventus – a statistic that may change negatively in the coming weeks if defensive injuries prove costly.

However, with the major re-shuffle of personnel in defence for this game, consisting of players out of position and youngsters lacking experience, combined with the attacking proficiency of Lazio – AC Milan could find themselves on the wrong end of a heavy defeat.

The loss of Romagnoli at the back and Higuain up front will severely hinder AC Milan, with Lazio’s top-scorer and former Capocannoniere Ciro Immobile looking to take full advantage when the two teams meet on Sunday.

AC Milan are in the midst of a crisis, with key players across the team (especially in defence) missing through serious injury and suspension.

Immobile has eight goals and one assist in 12 Serie A appearances, making him level on goals with Ronaldo and one behind top scorer Krzysztof Piatek (who is without a goal in his last five Serie A games).

Nevertheless, Immobile only has four goals in his last 10 games against AC Milan in all competitions and has only been on the winning side once out of those 10.

Lazio find themselves in fourth place will be desperate to strengthen their European qualification hopes after missing on out on a Champions League place on the final day of last season.

The Rossoneri conversely will be relying on their 20-year-old home-grown striker Patrick Cutrone in Higuain’s absence and will hoping he can transfer his Europa League form (three goals in three appearances) to his league form (two in 10).

Milan do still boast Europe’s top assister in Suso and will need him to be at his creative best if they are to get anything out of the game.

Lazio vs. AC Milan: Where is the value?

Taking into account the highlighted defensive frailties of AC Milan and the history of high scoring games between the two sides – bettors may look to odds of Over 2.5 goals at 1.781* for value.

With Lazio scoring close to two goals a game in xG and conceding at least one goal a game in xGA, combined with a similar goal-a-game xGA for AC Milan, bettors may even consider the possibility of Over 3 goals priced at 2.370* for value.

Bettors may also look to Handicap market for value, with Lazio -1 priced at 2.630* to record a home victory by at least two goals.

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Odds subject to change

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